$TBBB

TBBB的大规模门店扩张(从3500家增至15000家)将推动未来利润,尽管当前估值较高,但仍是强劲的长期买入标的。

看涨他说的是几年内
$TBBB: Tiendas 3B is Mexico's Aldi. Is it too late to buy? | Fruit Tree Capital
Yet Another Value Podcast发布 2026-09-07 · 29 段内容
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29 段内容
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我们将讨论“TBBB”,一家墨西哥领先且不断增长的折扣零售商。根本的问题是:他们有3500家门店,那么在墨西哥从3500家门店扩张到15000家门店时,经济可行性会保持不变吗?

We will be talking about "TBBB", a leading and growing discount retailer in Mexico. The fundamental question is: they have 3,500 stores, so will the economic viability remain the same when expanding from 3,500 stores to 15,000 stores in Mexico?

目前的评级太高了。股价大幅上涨,我不愿意看着股价想,“我们错过了机会吗?”但我们真的错过了吗?如你所知,我听到许多以前乐观的人说,“我现在很难用有吸引力的内部收益率来给这只股票估值。”

The current rating is too high. The stock price has risen dramatically, and I hate to look at the stock price and wonder, "Did we miss the opportunity?" But did we really miss out? As you know, I hear from many who were previously optimistic, “It’s difficult for me now to value this stock at attractive internal rates of return.”

但再说一次,从3500家到15000家门店,资本回收期为两年,这就是你得到结果的方式,而且你一开始是支付20倍、40倍还是100倍并不重要。因为当你从35家到1500家再到15000家时,利润增长得非常快。

But again, from 3,500 to 15,000 stores with a two-year capital recovery period, that's how you get the result, and it doesn't matter if you paid 20 times, 40 times, or 100 times at the beginning. Because when you go from 35 to 1500 and then to 15000, the profits increase very quickly.

所以,让我们更深入地了解我们今天要讨论的公司。我们讨论的这家公司在纽约证券交易所上市,代码为TBBB。它是Tiendas 3B,一家墨西哥连锁店。

So, let's delve deeper into the company we want to talk about today. The company we are talking about is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TBBB. It is Tiendas 3B, a Mexican chain of stores.

我认为Tiendas 3B是在墨西哥购买食品杂货最便捷的方式。他们只是遵循阿尔迪的模式。他们不卖3万种产品,只卖1000种。他们可以大量采购,获得更好的价格,并且比其他食品杂货店卖得更快。他们可以把这些节省下来的成本传递给消费者。

I consider Tiendas 3B to be the most convenient way to buy groceries in Mexico. They simply follow the Aldi model. Instead of selling 30,000 products, they only sell 1,000 products. They can buy them in large quantities, get a better price, and sell them much faster than other grocery stores . They can pass these savings on to the consumer.

安东尼投资了BIM,这家公司的土耳其版本。他说,“这是一个很好的模式。我自己在哪里可以应用它?”然后他环顾四周说,“墨西哥拥有我成功所需的所有要素。”这个人不会说西班牙语,所以他在2004年搬到墨西哥,并在2005年开了他的第一家店。

Anthony invested in BIM, the Turkish version of this company. He said, "This is a great model. Where can I apply it myself ?" Then he looked around and said, " Mexico has all the ingredients I need to succeed." The man did not speak Spanish, so he moved to Mexico in 2004 and opened his first store in 2005.

如今,他尚未扩展到墨西哥北部或南部,其活动仅限于中部地区,且拥有超过 3,700 家门店。需要说明的是,这一数字超过了其在美国的门店总数,而美国是其第二大增长市场。

Today, he has not yet expanded to northern or southern Mexico, but his activity is limited to the center , and he has more than 3,700 stores. To clarify, this number exceeds the total number of its stores in the United States, which is the second largest growth market in the United States .

我们之所以对这项工作印象深刻,是因为我们专注于四个关键方面。我们是长期投资者,风格上可称为查理·芒格式。因此,我们喜欢那些在未来 20 或 30 年内能够增长并在此期间保持强劲的项目。

The reason we are so impressed with this work is that we focus on four key things. We are long-term focused investors , in the style of Charlie Munger, as we might call it. So, we like something, a project that will grow over the next 20 or 30 years and remain strong during that time .

每个人都需要食物。每个人都想要易于食用的食物。第三,他们希望食物价格合理。没有人会说:“我喜欢你卖给我的鸡块,但我希望它们的价格是现在的两倍。”

Everyone needs food. Everyone wants food that is easy to eat. Third, they want food at reasonable prices. No one ever said, "I love the chicken pieces you sold me, but I wish they were twice the current price."

其次,如果你着眼于长期,你不会喜欢背负过多债务,因为它会在最糟糕的时候拖垮你。他们在公开发行股票时偿还了长期债务。他们还有一些现金储备。

Secondly, if you are thinking long-term, you don't like having too much debt because it will sink you at the worst possible time. They paid off their long-term debts when they put their shares up for public subscription. They have some cash reserves.

第三,优秀的管理层。我的意思是,我们根据行动而非言语来评判管理层。这个人的业绩记录不言自明。他是一颗耀眼的明星。

Third, excellent management. I mean, we judge management based on its actions, not its words. The man's record speaks for itself. He is a shining star.

第四,就估值而言,如你所知,我们偏好安全边际,但如果从固定角度来看,这并非一笔稳赢的交易,也不是一笔非凡的交易。但它实际上是一台增长倍增的机器。

and fourth, in terms of valuation, as you know, we prefer a margin of safety, but if we look at it from a fixed perspective, it is not a winning deal. Not an exceptional deal. But it is actually a machine for multiplying growth.

我们相信,去年实现的 38% 将继续增长。让我们将这个比率除以二。我们相信它将在未来二三十年继续增长,这意味着利润潜力高达 100 倍。

We believe that the 38% we achieved last year will continue to grow. Let's divide this ratio by two. We believe it will continue to grow over the next two or three decades , and that means the potential for a profit of up to 100 times.

这只是一项伟大的商业事业,它优先考虑客户,并将节省的成本传递给客户。我认为他们正在建立这种良好的声誉。

It is simply a great business venture that prioritizes its customers and passes on their savings to them. And I think they are building this good reputation.

因为,如你所说,折扣零售商与供应商合作有着悠久的历史。我的意思是,欧洲的 Aldi 是最著名的例子,不是吗?但美国也有 Trader Joe's。每个人都希望 Trader Joe's 的股票在证券交易所上市,不是吗?

但这些商品以非常低的价格出售,而且大多是自有品牌,仿佛它们占据了很大的市场份额,而做大做强的公司占据主导地位并取得巨大成功。这就是 TBB 的情况。

Because, as you said, there is a long history of discount retailers working with vendors. I mean, Aldi in Europe is the most famous example, is n't it? But there is also Trader Joe's in the United States . Everyone wishes Trader Joe's shares were listed on the stock exchange, wouldn't they ? But these things come at very low prices , and they are mostly private label brands, as if they capture a large share of the market, and the company that becomes large dominates and achieves great success. This is what happens with TBB.

过去一年股价大幅上涨,目前交易价格较高。人们开始意识到,也许为时已晚,这是一项伟大的商业事业。你看,如果你从我们的角度来看,你看的是明年,我不知道明年会发生什么。会有显著的波动,但当你将累积因素加入这项业务时,现金流将随着时间的推移而体现。我们不能否认这一点,我们也不期望这种增长停止。

The stock price has risen significantly over the past year and is currently trading at high prices. People are beginning to realize, perhaps too late , that this is a great business venture. Look, if you look at it from our perspective, you're looking at next year, and I don't know what's going to happen in it. There are significant fluctuations, but when you add the accumulation factor to this business, the cash flows will be reflected over time. We cannot deny this, and we do not expect this growth to stop.

请允许我补充一点。如你所知,我们之前去过墨西哥,当时管理层不在场。我们后来与管理层会面,并参观了门店。简而言之,我们参观了不同城市的门店。我们发现这种产品是最便宜的。有三家竞争对手,但它们都远远落后,我还可以补充更多,但它们都远远落后。它们在模仿这种模式。

Allow me a side note. As you know, we already went to Mexico, without the administration being present. We met with management later, and toured the stores. In short, we visited stores in different cities. We found that this product is the least expensive . There are three competitors, but they are all too far behind, and I could add more, but they are all too far behind. They are imitating this model.

回到 Trader Joe's,他们收购了一家名为 Yama 的公司(他们不公开宣传)。我们一年前参观了他们的门店,当时他们有两家门店。如今,他们有四家。他们在模仿 Trader Joe's 的模式。

他们模仿了他。他们的基本模式(即全国模式)中的产品要多得多。如你所知,但这只是开始。我认为这是一个有价值的补充。我不会仅仅因为 Yama 的参与就押注这家公司。他们的基础工作绝对出色,没有必要那样做。但这是一种补充。

Going back to Trader Joe's, they bought a company called Yama (they don't publicize it). We visited their stores a year ago, and they had two stores. Today, they have four. They are imitating the Trader Joe's model. They imitated him. They have far more products in their basic model, which is the national model. As you know, but this is just the beginning. I consider it a valuable addition. I wouldn't bet on this company just because Yama is involved. Their basic work is absolutely fantastic, and there's no need for that. But it's an addition.

所以,我们看到的是一个伟大的公司,准备好被更多谈论。这家公司是我们的旗舰项目之一。我对它的历史感兴趣。如我所提到的,这些公司在全球范围内有着经过验证的成功记录,而这里的首席执行官,即创始人,不会说西班牙语。

他只是说:“我想我在土耳其看到了这是如何运作的。我想在别处实施它,你觉得呢?”

So, what we see is a great company ready to be talked about more. This company is one of our flagship projects, I am interested in its history. As I mentioned, these companies have a proven track record of success worldwide, and the CEO here , the founder, does not speak Spanish. He simply said, "I saw how this worked in Türkiye, I think. I want to implement it somewhere else, don't you?"

这些公司存在“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的困境,不是吗?因为所有这些公司都会告诉你:“我们有 1,000、2,000、3,000 家门店。我认为这家公司在第二季度末有 3,500 家门店。

我们利用我们的门店基础来谈判我们的业务量,以谈判最好的产品。自有品牌,你知道,会说:‘我们有配送中心,所以我们可以更高效地利用配送中心。’”但“我们如何开始?假设我们在加拿大,出于某种原因我们没有折扣店,我们如何开始?

因为我们一开始没有配送中心,也没有门店基础,所以我们从一家门店开始。那么,我们如何解决这个先有鸡还是先有蛋的困境呢?”

There's a "chicken or egg" dilemma when it comes to these companies, is n't there? Because all these companies will tell you, "We have 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 stores . I think this company had 3,500 stores at the end of the second quarter. We use our store base to negotiate our business volume, to negotiate the best products. Private labels, you know, say, "We have distribution centers, so we can be more efficient with regard to distribution centers." "But how do we begin? Let's say we're in Canada and for some reason we don't have discount stores, how do we start? Because we don't have a distribution center to begin with, and we don't have a store base, so we start with one store. So, how do we solve the chicken-and-egg dilemma ?

我出于好奇问这个问题,而且因为他们的门店有两年回本周期,首先想到的是竞争。所以,如果我们解释他们如何克服这个问题,可能有助于人们理解为什么没有其他人能够做到,或者为什么这么难,可以这么说。

I ask this out of curiosity, and because their stores have a two-year payback period, the first thing that comes to mind is the competition. So, if we explain how they overcame this problem, it might help people understand why nobody else has been able to, or why it's so difficult , so to speak.

我认为首先,这个人,你知道,他做的每件事都很成功。这从他的业绩记录中可以看出。他从一家门店开始,但他有模式,他看到了它的运作。我认为那是他的竞争优势。

I think first and foremost, this guy, you know, was successful at everything he did. That's evident from his track record. He started with one store, but he had the model, and he saw it working. And I think that was his competitive advantage.

如今,他们有略多于 900 种产品。我会说大约 1,000 种。但那时,他们只有 300 种产品。他们没有冰柜。他把自己限制在你可以称之为基本品类的范围内。

Today, they have a little over 900 products. I'd say around 1,000 . But back then, they only had 300 products. They did n't have freezers. He limited himself to what you might call the basics.

首先,他们没有冰柜。现在他们有了。冰柜。嗯,那是一家杂货店,一家小杂货店。顺便说一下,它只有 6,000 平方英尺,而不是其他门店的 12,000 平方英尺。那大约是 7-Eleven 的两倍大。

所以对人们来说真的很方便。你知道,你下公交车,买你需要的东西。

First, they didn't have freezers. Now they do." Freezers. Well, it was a grocery store, a small grocery store. By the way , it was only 6,000 square feet , instead of the 12,000 square feet that other stores are. That's about twice the size of a 7-Eleven . So it's really convenient for people. You know, you get off the bus , you buy what you need.

然后,随着时间推移,他发展出了自有品牌模式。是的,我可能不知道他最初的价格。但他肯定知道自己要这么做。他的第一个自有品牌出现得很早,因为他知道这会成功。而且确实成功了。这已经是几年前的事了。

我记得是牛奶。现在你看,他们超过60%的产品都是自有品牌。这是长期积累的结果。

Then, over time, he developed the private label model. Yes, I probably don't know his prices at the beginning. But he definitely knew he was going to do it. His first private label was early on because he knew it would work. And it did. It's been a few years. I remember it was milk. And now, you see, over 60% of their products are private labels. That's build-up over time.

不仅如此,开发一个自有品牌大约需要三年时间,因为它是本地化的,也就是说来自当地的牛奶生产商。令人惊叹的是,十年前来店里的人,现在来到的是拥有更广泛选择的商店。这是积累的一部分,尤其是在批发业务中。

Not only that, but it takes about three years to develop a private label because it's local, meaning it's from local milk producers . And the amazing thing is that the people who used to come to the store 10 years ago now come to a store with a much wider selection . That's part of the build-up, especially in the wholesale business .

更令人印象深刻的是,他们仍然不卖水果和蔬菜。这不是一家全服务的杂货店。二十年前,Costco 比现在更全面。它仍然不完整,这也是其持续增长的原因之一。

And what's even more impressive is that they still don't sell fruits and vegetables. It's not a full-service grocery store . Twenty years ago , Costco was much more comprehensive than it is today. It's still incomplete, and that's one of the reasons for its incremental growth.

他们也省钱。这是口碑。他们不花钱做营销,所以可以把节省下来的成本传递给消费者。我给你举个具体的例子。他们创建了一个药品系列,你知道,就是你需要的基本东西,比如止咳糖浆和布洛芬。

他们有一种布洛芬售价22比索。他们有一种更便宜的,但这个适合比较。400毫克,10片,是22比索。我去了沃尔玛,墨西哥最大的连锁超市,它拥有他们的竞争对手 Orirra。沃尔玛有完全相同的布洛芬,相同的数量,售价58比索。这是自有品牌产品。Advil 是80比索。

They also save money. It's word of mouth. They do n't spend money on marketing, so they can pass the savings on to consumers. Let me give you a specific example. They created a line of medications, you know, basic things you need , like cough syrup and ibuprofen. They have a type of ibuprofen that sells for 22 pesos. They have a cheaper type, but this one is good for comparison. 400 mg, 10 tablets, it was 22 pesos. I went to Walmart, the largest grocery chain in Mexico, which owns Orirra, their competitor. Walmart had the exact same ibuprofen, the same quantity, for 58 pesos. This was a private-label product. Advil was 80 pesos.

所以,我认为 Sam Walton 会翻……他要是听到这个会气死的。因为他只是把节省的成本传递给消费者,这会建立良好的声誉。我们在 Costco 看到了这一点。我们在所有其他公司也看到了这一点,而且它……

So, I think Sam Walton would have flipped on the He'd be buried if he heard that. Because he's simply passing the savings on to the consumer , and that will build a good reputation. We've seen it with Costco. We've seen it with all the other companies, and it

这个频道对 $TBBB 的历次判断

Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-07看涨本条
我们将讨论“TBBB”,一家墨西哥领先且不断增长的折扣零售商。
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