TDG 是颇具吸引力的买入标的；尽管基本面强劲（有机增长达两位数、利润率上升），股价表现却落后，由此形成具吸引力的估值，并得到近期股份回购的支撑。
逐段跳播
波音生产率的提升。这两点对于像TransDigm、GE、Heico等航空航天售后市场企业来说都是风险因素。我们认为这些股票正变得越来越有吸引力。随着今年时间的推移，它们的估值变得更具吸引力，而这些股票的表现一直落后于大盘。
the increase in Boeing's production rate. Both of those are risk factors for aerospace aftermarket businesses like TransDigm, GE, Heico and others. We think those stocks are increasingly attractive. Their valuations have become more appealing as this year's gone on and those stocks have underperformed.
它们表现落后并不是因为盈利预期在下调，也不是因为它们的财务业绩疲弱或收入下滑。在所有这几方面，情况恰恰相反。投资者只是担心油价上涨会导致航空公司削减航班计划，这意味着对这些公司所提供的售后服务的需求会减少。
They're not underperforming because earnings estimates are going down. They're not underperforming because um, you know, their their financial results are weak or because their revenues are declining. The opposite is true in all of those cases. Investors are just fearful that higher oil prices are going to lead airlines to cut to cut their flight schedules, which means less demand for aftermarket services the likes these companies provide.
所以，我认为对售后服务的需求是持久的。我认为这些公司会继续增长，并以高于GDP的速度增长。而且它们还拥有定价权，因为航空航天行业在每一个零部件层面都有严格的监管，航空公司很难从一个供应商切换到另一个。
So, I think that demand for aftermarket services is durable. I think these companies are going to keep growing and growing at an above GDP rate. And they also have pricing power because the aerospace industry, you know, has significant regulations on a part-by-part basis and it's pretty difficult for airlines to toggle from one to another.
所以，我认为这些业务的前景很有吸引力。我认为估值已经变得更具吸引力，而且其中几家公司确实在以对股东友好的方式配置资本。
So, I think the outlook for these businesses is appealing. I think the valuation has gotten even more attractive and several of these companies are really allocating capital in a shareholder friendly manner.
TransDigm在过去几年里一直在进行收购，包括最近几个月，Heico也是如此。是的，首先，这项业务的内生增长达到两位数。其次，它们的利润率近来一直在提升，所以利润的增长甚至快于收入。
第三，估值已经下降。该股在过去一年里大幅跑输，而如今该股的估值具有吸引力。
TransDigm has been acquiring over the last couple years including in the last few months and the same is true for Heico as well. Yeah, first of all, the business is growing double-digits organically. Second, their margin has been increasing lately. So so profits growing even faster than revenue. Third, valuation has come down. The stock has underperformed materially in the last year and the stock today trades at a at an attractive valuation.
而且该公司的资本配置流程对股东非常友好。如果它们找不到有吸引力的收购标的，就会向股东派发特别股息，或者回购股票。它们最近实际上一直在回购股票，我认为这对股东来说是一个重要信号。
And the company's capital allocation process is very shareholder friendly. If they're unable to find appealing acquisition candidates, they either pay special dividends to shareholders or they buy back the stock. They've actually been buying back the stock recently, which I think is an important indicator for shareholders.
过去，当TransDigm回购自家股票时，都是因为其估值具有吸引力，而该股在随后一两年里表现非常好。我们现在正处于这样一个时期：公司正在回购股票，我认为这对投资者来说是一个有吸引力的买入机会。
In the past when TransDigm has bought back their stock, it's been because it's attractively valued and the stock has done very well over the following year or two. We're in one of those periods right now where the company's buying back the stock and I think it's a compelling buy for investors today.
观察点
这个频道对 $TDG 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。