TDG 因航空航天/国防领域的强劲利润率与增长而是一项合适的投资，但高负债需要关注。
逐段跳播
我将在今天视频中讨论第一只股票，也就是Transdigm Group的股票。这只股票并不广为人知，但它是一家有趣的公司。
I will be discussing the first stock in today's video, which is Transdigm Group stock. This stock is not widely known, but it is an interesting company.
如果你不了解它，TransDegm生产飞机内部的自己的小型零部件，比如锁具、液压阀、泵和点火系统。这家公司成立于20世纪90年代，得到了一家名为Kelso & Co.的私人投资公司的支持。
If you are not aware of it, TransDegm makes its own small parts inside aircraft, such as locks, hydraulic valves, pumps and ignition systems. This company was founded in the 1990s with the support of a private investment firm called Kelso & Co.
它多年来的策略是收购那些制造自有专有、独家来源、经FAA批准的零部件的公司，然后以盈利而非增长为目的来运营它们。
Its strategy for many years has been to acquire companies that manufacture its own proprietary, source-exclusive, FAA-approved parts, and then operate them for profit rather than growth.
自大约20年前上市以来，Transdegm Group已在其三个业务板块——能源与控制、飞机结构，以及一个规模较小的非航空板块——收购了100多家公司。
Since going public about 20 years ago, Transdegm Group has acquired more than 100 companies in its three sectors: energy and control, aircraft structures, and a small non-aviation sector.
但本质上，航空和国防板块在这三个渠道中约占公司营收的95%。它向Boeing和Airbus销售新飞机，以向航空公司提供零部件和售后备件。它也向美国武装部队及其盟友销售。
But in essence, the aviation and defense sectors account for about 95% of the company's revenue across these three channels. It sells new aircraft to Boeing and Airbus to provide spare parts and after-sales spare parts to airlines.
It also sells to the US armed forces and its allies.
所以，这是一个非常有趣的领域。当飞机的某个部件获得美国联邦航空管理局（FAA）的认证时，该认证归属于特定制造商的设计。如果航空公司需要更换这个部件，技术人员不能寻找其他替代品；他需要同一个经批准的部件。
So, this is a really interesting sector. When a part of an aircraft receives certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), that certification is attributed to a specific manufacturer's design.
If an airline needs to replace this part, the technician cannot look for other alternatives; he needs the same approved part.
因此，Transdigm大约90%的投资组合都是围绕这类单一来源备件构建的。现在，这种定价能力正在产生显著的收益。
Therefore, Transdigm has built approximately 90% of its investment portfolio around this type of single-source spare parts. Now, this ability to set prices is generating significant gains.
今天，我们看到Boeing和Airbus在多年供应链中断之后正在提高产量，商业航空旅行正在经历日益增长，这产生了对售后市场备件更大的需求，同时全球国防开支也在上升。
Today, we are witnessing Boeing and Airbus ramping up production after years of supply chain disruptions, and commercial air travel is experiencing increasing growth, generating greater demand for spare parts in the aftermarket, as well as rising global defense spending.
简而言之，这意味着Transdigma的分销渠道正在迅速扩张。除了航空和备件板块之外，公司业务的另一个有趣方面是太空板块。Power and Control部门的一部分专门为太空应用制造执行器和控制装置。因此，卫星和太空系统供应商是关键客户。
This means, in short, that Transdigma's distribution channels are expanding rapidly. Another interesting aspect of the company's business, besides the aviation and spare parts sector, is the space sector.
Part of the Power and Control division manufactures actuators and control devices specifically for space applications. Therefore, satellite and space systems suppliers are key customers.
所以，Transdigma的使命不仅限于为商用或战斗机提供备件，而是延伸得更远，此外它最近还收购了Steelex Systems，这是唯一一家有资格用于太空的美国行波管制造商，为Airbus的OneSat卫星生产线提供支持。
So, Transdigma’s mission is not limited to supplying spare parts for commercial or fighter aircraft, but extends beyond that, in addition to its recent acquisition of Steelex Systems, the only American manufacturer of mobile wave tubes qualified for use in space, which supports Airbus’s OneSat satellite production line.
在司法部表示将提起诉讼以阻止该交易后，这笔交易告吹了，但这显示出Transdigm有兴趣继续在这一领域扩张。
The deal collapsed after the Justice Department indicated it would file a lawsuit to block it, but this shows Transdigm's interest in continuing to expand in this area.
因此，我认为未来很可能会看到Transdigm提出更多收购交易。在最近一个财年的第三季度，TransDigm报告净销售额约为27亿美元，同比增长23%。该季度现金流达到约9亿美元。
自年初以来，公司已产生超过20亿美元的自由现金流。
Therefore, I think we will likely see more proposed deals from Transdigm in the future. In the third quarter of its most recent fiscal year, TransDigm reported net sales of approximately $2.7 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase.
Cash flow reached approximately $900 million during the quarter. The company has generated more than $2 billion in free cash flow since the beginning of the year.
简而言之，Transdigm是航空航天行业的领导者，拥有航空和军事领域经批准的设计零件，这些零件没有真正的替代品。其所有关键终端市场目前都在经历非常快速的增长。
In short, Transdigm is a leader in the aerospace industry, owning approved design parts for the aviation and military sectors, for which there is no real substitute. All of its key end markets are currently experiencing very rapid growth.
然后是太空方面，Transdigm仍在努力寻找自己的位置，尤其是在我提到的那次收购失败之后。一家值得关注、或许没有得到足够关注的好公司。因此，我建议你去看看TransDigm系列。
And then there is the space aspect, where Transdigm is still striving to find its place, especially after the failed acquisition I mentioned. A great company that deserves to be followed, and perhaps doesn't get enough attention.
Therefore, I recommend you check out the TransDigm collection.
说实话，当我看到公司名字时，正如我之前提到的，我以为这是另一家医疗公司。我以为它像是“transdream”。但并不是，这是一家非常有趣的公司。
Honestly, when I saw the company name, as I mentioned earlier, I thought it was another medical company. I thought it was like "transdream." But no, it's a really interesting company.
它的估值为610亿美元，我原本预计利润率不会很高，但在过去十二个月里，我观察到毛利率接近60%，营业利润率为46%，净利润率为21.3%，自由现金流利润率为19.3%，以及远期市盈率为23.9倍。
It is valued at $61 billion, and I expected that the profit margins would not be very high, but over the past twelve months, I have observed gross profit margins approaching 60%, operating profit margins of 46%, net profit margins of 21.3%, free cash flow margin of 19.3%, and a futures price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 times.
所以，这是一个非常有意思的名字。至于航空和国防板块，我认为这对他们来说是一个合适的投资选择。但没错，如果你对这个领域感兴趣，我认为它值得研究，尤其是它自年初以来已下跌17.6%。
因此，它从未达到过最高水平，不像许多其他公司那样。
So, a very interesting name. As for the aviation and defense sector, I believe it is a suitable investment option for them. But yes, if you are interested in this field, I think it is worth studying, especially since it has decreased by 17.6% since the beginning of the year.
Therefore, it never reached its highest levels, unlike many other companies.
是的，这有几个原因。我的意思是，该公司一直受到监管和政治机构的审查。这家公司几十年来一直有一套关于飞机零件如何认证的组织结构，并建立了业内利润率最高的商业模式之一。
Yes, and there are several reasons for that. I mean, the company has been under scrutiny from regulatory and political bodies. This company has had an organizational structure for decades regarding how aircraft parts are certified, and has built one of the highest-margin business models in the industry.
如果你是投资者，应该注意到Transdigm是依赖债务的。这是其商业模式中有意为之的一部分。其总债务约为340亿美元。其净债务与EBITDA之比升至约5.8倍，接近其历史最高水平。
It should be noted, if you are an investor, that Transdigm is debt-based. This is an intentional part of their business model. Its total debt amounted to approximately $34 billion.
Its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose to about 5.8 times, which is close to its all-time high.
这就是该公司业务的性质。这就是它历来在各个增长领域运作的方式。所以，如果你对这家企业感兴趣，这是值得关注的事情，我认为当价格低时，可能正是买入的时机。
This is the nature of the company's work. This is how it has historically operated in its various growth sectors. So, this is something worth keeping an eye on if you are interested in this business, and I think the time may be right to buy when the price is low.
然而，如果我们看看该股过去五年的表现，我们会发现它出现了显著的上涨。
However, if we look at the stock's performance over the past five years, we will find that it has seen a remarkable rise.
是的，这正是重点。你知道，我们今天谈到的这些股票，比如TransDigm Group、Micron和Marvell，都是过去几年涨幅显著的公司。但这背后有一个增长故事。如你所知，我们谈到过超越股价去看问题的重要性。
估值确实重要，但更重要的是看潜在的增长故事，以判断这个估值是否合理。我相信这三家公司在未来三到五年内已经有充分的增长理由。这正是我们今天想谈论它们的原因。我们不想谈论那些我们认为没有可持续增长故事的股票。我相信这些公司仍然有巨大的增长机会。
Yes, and that's the point. You know, these stocks we talked about today, like TransDigm Group, Micron, and Marvell, are companies that have seen significant gains over the past few years.
But there is a growth story behind it . As you know, we talk about the importance of looking beyond the stock price. It is true that evaluation is important, but what is more important is to look at the underlying growth story to see if that evaluation is justified.
I believe these three companies already have strong justifications for their growth over the next three to five years. That's precisely why we wanted to talk about it today. We don't want to talk about stocks that we don't believe have sustainable growth stories.
I believe these companies still have great opportunities for growth.
这个频道对 $TDG 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。