TGT 估值偏高（股价 160 美元，而合理价值为 93 美元），不存在买入机会，下跌概率较高。
逐段跳播
得益于新的管理层，增长回归，Target 的股价正大幅上涨。上一季度的净销售额较去年同期增长 5.3%，营业利润率有所提升，门店客流量较去年同期增长近 4%。
Target's shares are experiencing a significant rise as growth returns thanks to the new management. Net sales in the last quarter rose by 5.3% compared to the same quarter last year, with an increase in operating profit margin and an increase in customer traffic to its stores by nearly 4% compared to the same period last year .
这一切是否让 Target 的股票成为一个投资机会？让我们一起回答这个问题。因此，我们祝贺 Target 管理层在重振增长方面所做的努力。
Does all of this make Target shares an investment opportunity ? Let's answer this question together. Therefore , we congratulate Target's management on their efforts in revitalizing growth.
正如 2023 年的销售峰值所表明的那样，Target 的销售额持续下滑，直至 2026 年初。
As evidenced by the sales peak in 2023, Target's sales experienced a continuous decline until early 2026.
在过去两个季度，Target 成功重振了增长，并上调了全年展望，目前预计 2026 年全年增长约 5%。Target 过去十二个月的总销售额达到 1080 亿美元。这一数字较 2017 年的约 700 亿美元有所上升。
In the last two quarters, Target has successfully revived growth and revised its full-year outlook, now expecting growth of approximately 5% for the whole of 2026. Target's total sales over the past twelve months amounted to $108 billion.
This figure rose from about $70 billion in 2017.
Target 是第一家实施数字化转型的公司。自疫情开始以来，其电商和同店销售服务一直深受消费者欢迎。在线购买商品并从门店取货，或者在线购买后前往 Target 停车场由员工将商品送到你的车上，过去是、现在仍然是一项非常常见的服务。
Target was the first company to implement digital transformation. Its e-commerce and same-store sales services have been very popular among consumers since the start of the pandemic.
Buying products online and picking them up from the store, or buying them online and going to the Target car park for employees to deliver the product to your car, was and still is a very common service .
Target 之所以陷入困境，是因为消费者在寻求更高的性价比。
Target was struggling because consumers were looking for more value for their money.
Target 提供高端的购物体验，而消费者的预算却变得有限。因此，Target 在这些宏观经济条件下重振增长的能力，使管理层当前的表现看起来要好得多。
Target offers a premium shopping experience , while consumers' budgets have become limited. Therefore, Target's ability to revive growth under these macroeconomic conditions makes management's current performance look much better.
与 Walmart 或 Costco 相比，Target 一直实现了更好的利润率，因为它提供高端的购物体验。其产品比 Walmart 或 Costco 的产品更贵。
Target has consistently achieved better profit margins compared to Walmart or Costco, because it offers a high-end shopping experience . Its products are more expensive than those found at Walmart or Costco.
至于 Target，其营业利润率在过去几年间介于 7% 至 8% 之间。
As for Target, its operating profit margin has ranged between 7% and 8% over the past years.
这一利润率已经下降，因此现任管理层正努力将利润率恢复到历史水平。Target 的利润率常常接近 8%，而在疫情高峰期，它曾接近 9%。
This margin has declined, and therefore the current management is striving to restore profit margins to their historical levels. While Target often approached 8%, during the peak of the pandemic, it approached 9%.
在评估像 Target 这样的零售商时，我认为库存周转率是一个关键因素。在过去十二个月里，Target 的库存周转率为 8.2，接近 Target 过去十年该指标的平均水平。
I consider inventory turnover a critical factor when evaluating retailers like Target. Over the past twelve months, Target's inventory turnover rate has been 8.2, which is close to Target's average for this metric over the past decade.
与 Walmart 和 Costco 相比，Target 的库存周转率明显低于其同行。
Compared to Walmart and Costco, Target's inventory turnover rate is significantly lower than its peers.
这再次说明其遵循的是这样一种策略。Target 的目标是以较高的价格、较低的周转率销售产品，而 Walmart 和 Costco 的目标则是以较低的价格、较高的周转率销售更多产品。
This again points to the strategy being followed. Target aims to sell products at higher prices with a lower turnover rate, while Walmart and Costco aim to sell more products at lower prices with a higher turnover rate.
这一战略决策正是 Target 股票周转率下降的原因。随着增长重新回升，Target 赢得了投资者的热情。其估值已从约 8 倍的远期市盈率上升至 16.7 倍。
This strategic decision is the reason behind the decline in Target's stock turnover rate. Target, with its resurgence in growth, has gained investor enthusiasm. Its valuation has increased from a future price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 8 to 16.7.
在估值飙升之前，我一直将 Target 股票归类为买入机会，直到最近一两个月才将我的评级下调至“持有”。
I had been classifying Target stock as a buy opportunity before the valuation spike, and I only lowered my recommendation to "hold" in the last month or two.
因此，我更新了对 Target 的现金流折现评估，计算出该公司的公允价值为每股 93 美元，而其当前市价为 160 美元。
Therefore, I updated my discounted cash flow assessment for Target, and calculated the fair value of the company at $93 per share compared to its current market price of $160.
因此，该股似乎被显著高估，我认为它从现在起下跌的概率很高。那么，回答我在视频开头提出的问题：我认为 Target 股票现在是一个买入机会吗？我的回答是不。
Therefore, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued, and I believe there is a high probability that it will decline from now on. So, to answer the question I posed in the introduction to the video, do I think Target stock represents a buying opportunity now? I say no.
我大约一个月前更新了这一评级，提醒投资者该股已被高估，具体是在 8 月 21 日。自从我评估该公司以来，Target 的股票在过去一个月下跌了约 3.3%，我认为这一跌幅不足以支持上调 Target 的评级。
I updated this rating about a month ago , warning investors that it was overvalued, specifically on August 21. Target's stock has fallen by approximately 3.3% in the past month since I assessed the company, and I believe that this decline is insufficient to justify raising Target's rating.
因此，我将重复我此前的建议。如果你有意买入 Target 股票，你本应等待股价出现更大幅度的下跌，或公司营收和利润出现显著改善后再投资。
Therefore, I will repeat my previous recommendation. If you were interested in buying Target stock, you would have waited for a larger drop in the stock price or a significant improvement in the company’s revenue and profits before investing in it.
这个频道对 $TGT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。