TJX 基本面强劲，但估值略高（按 DCF 测算高估 10-15%）；当前价格对新进资金缺乏吸引力，因此给予持有评级。
逐段跳播
TJX Companies 是 TJ Maxx、Marshalls 和 Home Goods 门店的母公司，其业绩持续超出预期。
TJX Companies, the owner of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Home Goods stores, continues to exceed expectations.
管理团队对公司的前景如此乐观，以至于上调了对门店数量的长期预期，即他们认为自己能够有效管理的门店数量。这一预测被上调了 500 家，达到 7,500 家门店，而管理团队正将扩张速度加快至 4%，以抓住这一机会。
The management team is so optimistic about the company's prospects that it has raised its long-term expectations for the number of stores it believes it can effectively manage.
The projections have been increased by 500 units to reach 7,500 stores , and the management team is accelerating the pace of expansion to 4% to take advantage of that opportunity.
那么，这是否让 TGX 股票成为一个买入机会？让我们一起来回答这个问题。从这一品类以及 TJX 整体来看，它是过去十年中实现增长的少数传统零售商之一。
So, does this make TGX stock a buying opportunity? Let's answer this question together. Looking at this category and TJX in general, it was one of the few traditional retailers that achieved growth over the past decade.
TJX 几乎全部收入都来自门店直销，过去 12 个月其收入提升至超过 620 亿美元。这一数字是 2017 年约 300 亿美元的两倍以上。
TJX, which derives almost all of its revenue from in- store direct sales, raised its revenue to more than $62 billion over the past 12 months. This represents more than double the figure of approximately $30 billion in 2017.
他们以折扣价格提供品牌产品，为顾客带来消费者已经喜爱的“寻宝”体验。过去 12 个月，TGX 实现了 12.5% 的营业利润率。这是过去十年中营业利润率最高的水平。因此，这并不是一个利润很高的行业。它并不能产生很高的利润率。
They offer branded products at discounted prices, giving customers the "treasure hunt" experience that consumers have come to love. Over the past 12 months, TGX has achieved an operating margin of 12.5%.
This is the highest level of operating profit margin at any time in the past decade . Therefore, it is not a very profitable sector. It does not generate very high levels of margins.
当你把管理数千个门店的高昂运营成本与高人力成本结合在一起，再加上库存成本，结果就是盈利能力并不理想。由于管理团队希望加快资本投入以提升门店开发速度，我想看看投入资本回报率。在这方面，公司做得不错。
过去 12 个月实现了 26% 的投入资本回报率，过去十年的平均回报率约为 20%，这远远超过公司的加权资本成本，也高于管理层每投入一美元就能产生回报并为股东创造价值的水平。
When you combine the high operating costs of managing thousands of sites with high staffing costs, and then add inventory costs , it results in a situation that is not very profitable in terms of profitability.
Since the management team wanted to accelerate capital investment to expand the rate of store development, I wanted to look at the return on invested capital. In this respect, the company is doing a good job.
Achieving a return on invested capital of 26% over the past 12 months , and an average return of about 20% over the past decade, well exceeds the company's weighted cost of capital, and is above the level that generates returns and adds value to shareholders for every dollar invested by management.
所以，按照这一标准，他们做得不错，而且考虑到消费者被这种购物体验所吸引的市场动态，我认为可以合理地假设，加快投资步伐从长期来看将对股东是一个积极的发展。
So, by that measure, they are doing a good job, and given the market dynamics with consumers drawn to this type of shopping experience, I think it is reasonable to assume that accelerating the pace of investment will be a positive development for shareholders in the long run.
我上一次评估 TGX 是在一年多以前的 2025 年 5 月 5 日，当时我说该股看起来并不是一个买入机会。这一假设被证明是合乎逻辑的，因为过去一年该股股价下跌了超过 6%，而同期标普 500 指数整体上涨了两位数，回报率接近 20%。所以，如果你投资了 TGX，你的表现会差得多。
I last assessed TGX more than a year ago on May 5, 2025, and said at the time that the stock did not look like a buying opportunity. This assumption proved to be logical, as the stock price fell by more than 6% over the past year , while the overall S&P 500 index rose by double digits during that period, approaching a 20% return.
So, you would have performed much worse if you had invested in TGX.
但今天又如何呢？在当前市场价格下，TGX 看起来有吸引力吗？该股的远期市盈率为 22.7，低于过去两年该股按这一指标交易的平均估值。因此，从这个角度看，相对于其未来前景和当前估值，它似乎估值合理。
But what about today? Does TGX look attractive at current market prices ? Well, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7, which is lower than the average valuation at which the stock has traded according to this metric over the past two years.
Therefore, viewed from this angle, it appears fairly valued in comparison to its future prospects and current valuation.
但我也喜欢用我的贴现现金流模型来看估值，根据这一计算，我对该公司的估值为每股约 102 美元。当前市场价格为 131 美元。因此，在使用我通常采用的 5% 至 10% 安全边际的贴现现金流模型时，它似乎略微高估。
所以，即使计入安全边际，它似乎也高估了约 10% 至 15%。
But I also like to look at the valuation using my discounted cash flow model, and according to this calculation, I valued the company at about $102 per share. The current market price is $131.
Therefore, it appears to be slightly overvalued when using the discounted cash flow model with the 5-10% safety margin I typically use. So, it appears to be overvalued by about 10 to 15% even after accounting for the safety margin.
回答这个问题：我认为今天这是一个买入机会吗？我不这么认为。我认为市场上有更好的机会，因此我将重申对 TGX 股票的“持有”评级。
To answer the question: Do I think this is a buying opportunity today? I don't think so. I believe there are better opportunities in the market, and therefore I will reiterate my "hold " rating for TGX shares .
如果你对这只特定股票感兴趣，我建议寻找更好的入场点，或者考虑将资金投入其他投资。不过，我并不认为这只股票定价过高。我不认为这是一只应该完全回避的股票。我不认为仅仅因为它贵，你就应该在自己已经持有它的情况下把它卖掉。
我完全不认为情况是这样。我只是认为，如果你正在考虑投入一笔新的投资资金，考虑到风险回报比，有许多更好的机会。
I recommend looking for a better entry point if you are interested in this particular stock, or considering other investments for your capital. However, I don't think this stock is overpriced .
I don't think it's a stock that should be avoided entirely. I don't see it as a stock you should get rid of if you already own it just because it's expensive. I don't think that's the case at all .
I just think that if you're considering adding a new investment dollar, there are many better opportunities given the risk-to- reward ratio.
这个频道对 $TJX 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。