TLT面临高通胀、潜在美联储加息以及地缘政治升级推高利率带来的看跌压力。
完整内容
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人们抛售美国国债，原因有两个。一是因为通胀高企，所以他们预计在某个时点美联储可能不得不加息以抑制通胀，而每次我们看到伊朗局势进一步升级，油价进一步上涨，这都会传导到TLT受到打击，利率上升。
Uh people are selling down Treasuries really for for two reasons. One, because inflation is high, so they're expecting that at a certain point that the Fed may have to hike in order to tamper down inflation and every time we see further escalation in Iran, further move higher in the price of oil, that is transferring through to the TLT getting hit and and rates moving higher.
我们看到市场立即基本上抛售了TLT。我们之前TLT有过一次大幅上涨，所以利率下降了，但两天后TLT又完全回落了。利率在重新走高，市场似乎在说：“你知道，这个小小的扭曲操作还不够。”
And and we saw at the market immediately basically sold the TLT down. We had a we had a big pop in the TLT so interest rates went lower but 2 days later the TLT was all the way back down. Interest rates were working their way back higher and the market was kind of saying, "You know, this little twist operation here is not enough."
我的意思是，现在谁想做空TLT？谁想做空长期债券，如果美国政府有可能介入并购买价值一万亿美元的债券？我当然不会。
I mean, who who the hell wants to be short the TLT? Who wants to be short the long end on on bonds right now if there's a potential that the US government could step in and buy a trillion dollars worth of them. Uh certainly not me.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $TLT 的历次判断
T3 Live 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。