丰田面临不可避免的衰落（“死亡螺旋”），原因是领导层无能以及在战略上否认电动车趋势，其处境与大众汽车如出一辙。
逐段跳播
如今，大众和丰田视年份而定，都是全球最大的汽车制造商，按销量计算规模大致相当。我们姑且说每年大约1000万辆汽车。
Now, VW and Toyota today, depending on the year, are the world's largest automotive manufacturers, roughly the same scale by unit sold. We'll call it about 10 million vehicles a year.
两家公司都彻底完蛋了，因为两家公司的领导层都无能。我不希望事情变成这样，但事情就会这样发展下去。极具讽刺意味。这要追溯到2008、2009、2010年前后，大概在那个时期，丰田实际上在与特斯拉合作。
特斯拉实际上在为电动丰田RAV4制造电动动力总成。丰田当时表示，他们合作的目标是帮助自己学习和改进技术。他们甚至持有特斯拉的股份，顺便说一句是很大一笔股份，我记得大约占该公司10%。后来卖掉了。安息吧。
Both companies completely [ __ ] cooked because both companies have incompetent leadership. I don't want this to be the case, but this is how things will play out. Incredible irony. This back around 2008, 9, 10, somewhere in that era, Toyota was actually working with Tesla. Tesla was actually making the electric drivetrain for electric Toyota RAV4s. Toyota at the time saying that their partnership, the goal was to help them learn and improve their technology. They even had a stake in Tesla, a massive stake by the way, I think it was about 10% of the company. Later sold. RIP.
然而就在一两年前，那些假装是丰田领导层的人还公开声称消费者想要选择，他们要追求四种独立的动力形式。内燃机、氢动力汽车、过渡型电动车——也就是带一小块电池的内燃机汽车，稍微糊弄一下人们，让他们以为那是电动车——再加上纯电动车。他们把自己摊得太薄，没有看清墙上的字。
Yet as recently as a year or two ago, the [ __ ] pretending to be Toyota's leadership were claiming on the record that consumers wanted choice and they were going to pursue four independent forms of propulsion. Internal combustion engine, hydrogen powered vehicles, trans EVs, which are internal combustion engines with a little battery in them, a slight of the full people into thinking that they're electric vehicles, plus pure electric vehicles. Spreading themselves too thin, not seeing the writing on the wall.
我们现在看到大众身上发生的事，将在丰田身上重演。
What we're seeing happen now with Volkswagen will repeat itself with Toyota.
我已经说了将近7年了，丰田、大众，它们都是巨大的泰坦尼克号。它们撞上了冰山。它们不会立刻沉没，但你能看出最终会发生什么。死亡螺旋已经开始。现在已经太晚了。
I've been saying for nearly 7 years now, Toyota, Volkswagen, they're both gigantic titanics. They collided with the iceberg. They don't sink immediately, but you can tell what's going to ultimately happen. The death spiral is underway. It's too late now.
再说一次，我为大众的员工感到难过。丰田的员工也一样。这就要来了，相信我。他们为一家高层是白痴的公司工作，这不是他们的错，但我确实希望大众、丰田以及其他传统汽车公司的员工都有B、C、D、E计划，否则他们就有大麻烦了。
Again, I feel bad for the VW employees. Same is true for Toyota employees. It's coming, trust me. It's not their fault that they work for a company with retards at the top, but I do hope that the VW and Toyota and other legacy auto company employees do have a plan B, C, D, and E otherwise they're in big trouble.
如果你是像大众、丰田这样的大批量制造商，你希望每个品类里有一款杀手级产品。一款出色的紧凑型SUV，一款出色的轿车。不要给人们每款车600种不同的选择。
If you're a high-volume manufacturer like VW, Toyota, you want one category killer per category. One excellent compact SUV, one excellent sedan. Don't give people 600 different options with every vehicle.
再说一次，我们将在丰田身上看到完全相同的事情发生。它还没有发生，这一事实表明丰田在接受现实方面比大众落后得多。
And again, we will see the exact same thing happen at Toyota. The fact that it hasn't already shows how much further behind accepting reality Toyota is versus Volkswagen.
这个频道对 $TM 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。