特斯拉将转型为自动驾驶与机器人平台，在基准情景下，Optimus将在2040年代中期成为主要利润驱动因素。
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这是对我 20 年期 Tesla 和 SpaceX 估值模型基准情形的通俗解读。在未来二十年中，该模型并不将 SpaceX 和 Tesla 视为单纯的增长型公司，而是将其视为能够重组世界移动比特、原子、能源和智能方式的引擎。
This is a plain English reading of my 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model base case. Over the next two decades, the model does not treat SpaceX and Tesla as nice growth companies. It treats them as engines that can reorganize how the world moves bits, atoms, energy, and intelligence.
如今，它们已经规模庞大。到 2030 年代中期，在这一基准情形下，它们的综合规模看起来不像两家成功的科技公司，而更像是凌驾于全球经济之上的两个工业文明。
Today, they are already large. By the mid-2030s, in this base case, their combined scale looks less like two successful tech firms and more like a pair of industrial civilizations sitting on top of the global economy.
到 2040 年代中期，这一基准情形即便以雄心勃勃的长期预测标准来看也极为极端。仅 SpaceX 的经营利润就以每年数万亿美元计，而 Tesla 的自动驾驶和机器人业务已从几乎为零成长为足以令传统汽车业务相形见绌的支柱。
By the mid-2040s, the base case is extreme, even by the standards of ambitious long-term forecasts. SpaceX operating profit alone is measured in the trillions of dollars per year, and Tesla's autonomy and robotics businesses have grown from nearly nothing into pillars that dwarf the old car company.
Tesla：从汽车公司转向自动驾驶与劳动力。在 2026 年，模型中的 Tesla 在很大程度上仍是公众所熟知的公司。车辆贡献了大部分利润。储能是有意义的第二增长曲线，软件（完全自动驾驶）是一个正在增长但尚未占据主导地位的板块。
Robotaxi 和 Optimus 在早期数据中几乎不可见。
Tesla. From car company to autonomy and labor. In 2026, Tesla in the model is still largely the company the public knows. Vehicles drive most of the profit. Energy storage is a meaningful second act and software, full self-driving, is a growing but not yet dominant slice. Robo-taxi and Optimus are almost invisible in the early numbers.
在整个 2030 年代，业务组合发生变化。汽车仍在销售，但不再构成全部故事。能源，特别是公用事业规模的储能，随着电网和 AI 负载对电池需求增加以及学习曲线带来的平均售价下降，扩展为真正的工业特许经营权。
完全自动驾驶软件随车队规模扩大而增长。一旦网络规模和监管允许大规模无监督里程，Robotaxi 将成为一个具有重大财务影响的真正交通平台，显著提振 Tesla 的底线利润。Optimus 在 2030 年代中期仍处于早期阶段，是某种更大事物的种子。
Through the 2030s, the mix changes. Cars still sell, but they stop being the whole story. Energy, especially utility-scale storage, scales into a real industrial franchise as grids and AI load demand more batteries while ASP declines on a learning curve. Full self-driving software scales with the fleet. Robo-taxi, once the network and regulation allow unsupervised miles at significant scale, becomes a real transportation platform with major financial impact to Tesla's bottom line. Optimus, still early in the mid-2030s, is the seed of something much larger.
到 2040 年代中期，在基准情形下，Tesla 的业务已发生转型。相对于公司其他部分，车辆硬件利润只是沧海一粟。储能现在的年部署量接近 1 太瓦时。自动驾驶（Robotaxi）是一个主要支柱，尽管在此基准情形下仍远小于 Optimus。
而 Optimus（附带软件的类人机器人）在该模型中成为 Tesla 最大的单一利润引擎。
By the mid-2040s, in the base case, Tesla's business is transformed. Vehicle hardware profits, relative to the rest of the company, are a speck. Energy storage now sees annual deployments in the vicinity of 1 terawatt hour. Autonomy, robo-taxi, is a major pillar, though still much smaller than Optimus in this base case. And Optimus, humanoid robots sold with software attached, becomes, in this model, the single largest Tesla profit engine.
其理念在于，Tesla 不仅运送人员和储存电子，还出售通用劳动力。这才是主导叙事，不是更多的 Model Y，而是 Tesla 作为物理工作和自主出行的操作系统。
The idea that Tesla does not only move people and store electrons, but also sells general-purpose labor. That is the dominant story, not more Model Ys, but Tesla as the operating system for physical work and autonomous mobility.
上行空间在于，汽车业务为数据和制造能力提供资金，随后自动驾驶和机器人将公司重新评级为一个完全不同的行业。
The upside is that cars fund the data and manufacturing muscle. Then autonomy and robots re-rate the company into a different industry altogether.
在合并基础上，截至 2026 年展望至 2046 年，这两家公司的合计公允价值处于数万亿美元区间。这比任何一家单独的公司都大，也比许多人对可能性的直觉要大。这是有意为之。
On a combined basis, the base case fair value of the two companies together as of 2026, looking forward out to 2046, sits in multi-trillion-dollar territory. Larger than either company alone and larger than many people's intuition for what's possible. That is intentional.
该模型问的不是“它们是否会以每年 15% 的速度增长？”而是“如果可重复使用发射、全球连接、AI 基础设施或自动驾驶以及类人劳动力都部分成功，会怎样？”
The model is not asking, will they grow 15% a year? It is asking, what if reusable launch, global connectivity, AI infrastructure, or autonomy, and humanoid labor all partially work?
在该模型中，合并是可选的，而非被假定为必然命运。如果交易达成，合并协同效应是真实的，但它们是次要的。共享制造、AI 和管理费用节省很重要，但不是主要故事。主要故事是 SpaceX 和 Tesla 攻击同一个未来的不同瓶颈——能源、运输、计算、智能和劳动力——且每一方的成功都使另一方的世界更加可信。
A merger is optional in this model, not assumed as destiny. Merger synergies, if a deal closes, are real, but they're secondary. Shared manufacturing, AI, and overhead savings matter, but they're not the main story. The main story is that SpaceX and Tesla attack different bottlenecks of the same future. Energy, transport, compute, intelligence, and labor, and each one's success makes the others world more plausible.
如果这种叙事感觉激进，那很好，它本应如此。这份文件中未来 20 年的内容不是一个安静的复利叙事。这是一个赌注，赌少数几个平台能够成为一个能源更丰富、自动化程度更高、更智能的世界实际运行方式的骨干。
If this narrative feels aggressive, good, it should. The next 20 years in this file are not a quiet compounding narrative. They are a bet that a small number of platforms can become the backbone of how a more energy-rich, more automated, more intelligent world actually runs.
以上就是对我 20 年期 SpaceX 和 Tesla 估值模型基准情形的通俗解读。
And there you have it, a plain English reading of my 20-year SpaceX and Tesla valuation model in the base case.
最后一个问题是这两家公司合并的情景。我相信这个想法会被提呈给投资者。我认为这只是时间问题。没有人会质疑这两家公司合二为一是否合理。显然它是合理的。这里唯一的大变量是是否有足够多的 Tesla 股东投票支持合并，使其真正发生。
The last question is a scenario of a merger between these two companies. I believe that the idea will be proposed to investors. I think that is only a matter of time. No one would question whether or not it makes sense for these two companies to become one. It obviously does. The only big variable here is whether enough Tesla shareholders would vote in favor of a merger for it to actually take place.
这就是为什么我的合并模型在一个电子表格中包含了 SpaceX 的 20 年期模型加上 Tesla 独立的 20 年期模型，以及几张关于潜在合并可能性的工作表。如果发生，哪一年发生？
财务收益、协同效应是什么？最重要的是，合并时的公平比例是多少？是 50/50 吗？剧透一下，不是。60/40？20/80？
This is why my combined model includes a 20-year model for SpaceX plus an independent 20-year model for Tesla in the same spreadsheet. And also a few different sheets relating to the potential of a merger. If it happens, what year does it happen? What are the financial benefits, the synergies, and most important of all, what's a fair ratio in the event of a merger? Is it 50/50? Spoiler alert, no. 60/40? 20/80?
我认为对于 Tesla 和 SpaceX 投资者，尤其是 Tesla 投资者来说，一件非常重要的事情是考虑 Tesla 和 SpaceX 长期的内在价值。如果提出合并，你希望提前做足功课并认真思考这一点，从而做出明智的决定。
I think a very important thing for Tesla and SpaceX investors, but in particular Tesla investors to consider is what's the intrinsic value of both Tesla and SpaceX over the long term. If a merger is proposed, you want to have done your homework ahead of time and really thought about this. So you're making an informed decision.
我 20 年期估值模型中的一张专用工作表正是包含此内容，即基于我对 SpaceX 和 Tesla 在 20 年期基准情形下估计公允价值的公平合并比例。它们今天的价值各是多少？因此，在合并事件中，公平比例会是多少？
One of the dedicated sheets inside my 20-year valuation model includes exactly that, the fair merger ratio based on my estimated fair value in the base case for both SpaceX and Tesla over the 20-year horizon. What are they both worth today? And therefore, what would be the fair ratio in the event of a merger?
话虽如此，显然 Tesla 投资者会希望在 Tesla 公允价值之上获得一定的溢价。
Now, that said, obviously Tesla investors would want somewhat of a premium above the fair value of Tesla.
总之，这两家公司属于彼此。我强烈怀疑我们很快就会就这一结果进行投票，我敦促每个人确保提前对此进行了思考，而不是感到惊讶、不确定或对什么是公平的、什么是合理的以及如何投票感到犹豫不决。
The bottom line, these two companies belong together. I strongly suspect we'll get to vote on this very outcome soon, and I urge everyone to make sure they've thought about this ahead of time, rather than being surprised or unsure and uncertain about what's fair, what's reasonable, and how you'll vote.
未来20年，Tesla和SpaceX将共同取得难以置信的辉煌成就。
Together, the next 20 years for Tesla and SpaceX will be unfuckingbelievably awesome.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。