TSLA是核心持仓;认为其相对于NVDA估值合理,并受到战略性供应链整合的支持。
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我目前持有 Rocket Lab、特斯拉等公司的头寸,现在 SpaceX 的头寸非常小,只是因为我当时没有太多可用资金投入 SpaceX。但我喜欢那家公司。我对它非常兴奋,我打算增加那个配置,但还有英伟达、Palantir,嗯,还有一些微策略。
I currently hold positions in companies like Rocket Lab, Tesla, a very small position in SpaceX right now just because I didn't have a lot of free capital to put into SpaceX. But I love that company. I'm very excited about that and I'm going to be working on growing that allocation but also Nvidia Palunteer um some micro strategies
在我看来,那个领域里公开市场的三大 CEO 将是埃隆、Jensen 和 Alex Karp。在目前这个时间点,我觉得埃隆的公司和 Alex Karp 的公司都比英伟达更被合理估值。
the top three public market CEOs in my mind in that space are going to be Elon Jensen and Alex Karp. at this point in time, I feel like Elon's companies and Alex Karp's company are both more fairly valued than Nvidia.
我可能大量配置了特斯拉,而且你知道,我一直在把我的 SpaceX 头寸建得比我的英伟达头寸大得多。
I am probably heavily allocated to Tesla and like you been building my SpaceX position much larger you know position in my portfolio than my Nvidia position
过去埃隆和 Jensen 之间有一种零和心态。埃隆觉得他必须建造 Dojo,他们之间没有那种信任,但随着时间的推移,我们看到这种情况在减弱,特斯拉和 SpaceX 都在越来越多地使用英伟达硬件。
他们觉得他们可以信任 Jensen 能够交付他们实现路线图所需的东西。
it used to be that there was sort of a zero sum mentality between Elon and Jensen. Elon felt like I'm going to have to build dojo and there wasn't that trust uh between them and that has been something that we've seen erode over time is that Tesla and SpaceX are both using more and more Nvidia hardware over time. They feel like they can trust Jensen to be able to deliver what it is that they need to accomplish their roadmap.
很多特斯拉投资者对埃隆非常不满,因为他们觉得他对特斯拉不闻不问。
a lot of Tesla investors have been really upset with Elon because they feel like he's MIA from Tesla.
埃隆·马斯克的产业,特斯拉和 SpaceX 都已经锁定了未来几年整个 Vera Rubin 供应量的 30% 到 40%。
Elon Musk industries, both Tesla and SpaceX have secured 30 to 40% of the entire Vera Rubin supply for the next couple of years.
他们还在 2027 年底前将英伟达芯片送入太空,这也非常重大。但我总是……而且他们正在与英伟达共同设计这些芯片。所以你知道,英伟达和 SpaceX 的工程团队之间有深度整合,帮助实现这一目标。
They're also sticking Nvidia chips into space first later 2027 which is also huge. But I always >> and they're co-designing those chips with Nvidia. So it's you know there is a deep integration of the engineering teams between Nvidia and SpaceX that are helping to make that a reality.
所以我不知道投资者思考这个问题的正确框架是埃隆对 Jensen,或者长期来看是特斯拉和 SpaceX 对英伟达。
Um so I don't know that the right framing for investors to think about this is Elon versus Jensen or you know Tesla and SpaceX versus Nvidia over the long term.
事实上,我们有一个关于 SpaceX 估值、目标价、特斯拉建模、特斯拉对 SpaceX 以及克服一些瓶颈的不同方法的完整部分。
In fact, we got a whole section on SpaceX valuations, price targets, modeling Tesla, Tesla versus SpaceX, and different types of ways of overcoming some of the bottlenecks.
这就是为什么埃隆在Terra Fab上看得一清二楚。两年前他就已经直面这个问题了。就像,哦不,地球,休斯敦,随便什么。我们有问题了。我们没有足够的芯片。我们完蛋了。我们需要全球产能的10倍才能支持Optimus。
and that's why Elon saw it with Terra Fab as clear as day. He was staring him in the face two years ago. It's like, uhoh, Earth, Houston, whatever. We have a problem. We don't have enough chips. We are cooked. We need 10x the global capacity just to support Optimus.
然后我们学到的另一件事是,Optimus需要大量的内存,远不止几个AI5芯片。
then the other thing is we learned too is Optimus requires a truckload of memory, way more than a couple of AI5s on it.
他尽可能多地搞到了所有他能弄到的变压器。他把它们停放在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的Giga工厂。人们说:“他到底拿这些东西干什么?”嗯,他需要它们来部署非常大的Mega Pack部署以及其他一切。
he brought up all the transformers he could possibly get his hands on. He parked them in in Giga Austin, Texas. People say, "What the hell is he doing with all of those things?" Well, he needs them to deploy very large mega pack deployments and everything else.
涡轮机也是一样。他不是去欧洲买了一个什么的吗?嗯,整个变电站能源制造等等。
Same thing with turbines. Didn't he go to Europe to buy one or something? Uh a whole substation energy manufacturing etc.
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