$TSLA

长期看好TSLA;独特的现实世界AI护城河以及到2027年中可能扩展的机器人出租车业务,支持看涨至1000美元。

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Grok Bot Singularity? And Chamath Is Wrong
AI Stocks Report with Warren Redlich发布 2026-08-30 · 18 段内容
40:02/ 打开原视频

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18 段内容
40:0284:07

对我来说,Tesla是现实世界AI。它是不同的,Tesla的现实世界AI没有竞争对手。我认为有很多人认为大型语言模型将在现实世界AI中取得成功。而我认为人们并没有真正理解现实世界AI有多难。

To me Tesla is real world AI. It's different and Tesla real world AI has no competition. I think there's a lot of people who think that the large language models are going to like be successful in real world AI. And I think people don't really grasp how hard real world AI is.

想想这个。当你问任何一个AI一个问题时,它通常至少需要一秒钟来回应。而如果,你知道,Tesla的汽车在毫秒内回应。它接收大量数据,七个摄像头,也许还有其他传感器,并且它在不断做决策,在15、20、30毫秒内不断做决策。而没有一个LLM能做到这一点。

Think about this. When you ask any of your AI is a question, it usually takes at least a second to respond. And if you, you know, Tesla's car is responding in milliseconds. It's getting a huge volume of data coming in, seven cameras, maybe some other sensors, and it's making decisions like constantly making decisions in 15, 20, 30 milliseconds. And none of the LLMs can do that.

所以,他们的现实世界AI,你知道,他们也许能在一些视频上训练并解决一些问题,但能够做到Tesla在自动驾驶和正在启动的机器人出租车方面所做的事情的挑战,那是我们没谈到的另一件事。

So, their real world AI, you know, they may be able to train on some videos and be able to figure some things out, but the challenge of being able to do what Tesla's doing with self-driving and with these robo taxis that are spinning up, that's another thing we didn't talk about.

三天后,我想对你们来说是四天,三天是四天,四到五天。那是9月3日。我们将举办一场Cybercab发布活动。他们说现在有六个城市在运行无人监督的机器人出租车,看起来我们将很快看到更多的机器人出租车运行。

我不知道它会以多快的速度扩展。那将会很有趣。是否会有一次阶跃变化?我没有预料到阶跃变化。我不觉得那是Ashoke在财报电话会议上所说的,但也许特斯拉将会有一个阶跃变化。

In three days, I think it's four days for you guys and three days It's four days for four or five days. It's September 3rd. We're going to have some cyber cab launch event. There's there's they said that there's now six cities with unsupervised robo taxis running and it looks like we're going to see a lot more robo taxis running quickly. And I I don't know how quickly it's going to scale. That's going to be interesting. Is there is there a step change coming? I didn't anticipate a step change. I didn't feel like that's what Ashoke was saying in the earnings call, but maybe Tesla's going to have a step change.

特斯拉机器人出租车将扼杀美国市场。我不这么认为。Starling从无到有地主导了市场。Terap也会这样做。就这么简单。特斯拉机器人出租车不会扼杀特斯拉市场。特斯拉机器人出租车将激发美国经济。

Tesla robo taxis are going to kill the US market. I don't think so. Starling went from nothing to dominating. Terap will do the same. It's that simple. Tesla robo taxis are not going to kill the Tesla market. Tesla robo taxis will energize the US economy.

随着内存价格上涨,大部分不满的人是游戏玩家。所以也许中国公司可能会在这方面有所作为。只是对我来说还不够。我不认为内存是人们需要的高性能内存。

Um, with memory prices being higher, a large portion of people upset are the gamers. So maybe the Chinese companies might make a difference in this. It's just not enough me. I don't think that memory is the high performance memory that people need.

所以我之前提到过英伟达、谷歌、SpaceX和特斯拉。那是我持有股票的四家公司。如果Robotaxi起飞,你知道,特斯拉股票现在交易在350左右,到明年年底。我不知道它是如何达到的,它可能会达到一千,我不知道如何做短期股价预测,但在某个时候,你知道,如果robotaxi起飞,有一个问题,当robotaxi达到规模时,但如果robotaxi在2027年中期达到规模并开始真正向公司注入资金,那么华尔街必须弄清楚这一点。

So I mentioned before Nvidia, Google, SpaceX, and Tesla. Those are the four companies I hold stock in. If Roboaxi takes off that, you know, Tesla stock right now is trading around 350 by the end of next year. I don't know how it got to it's probably hitting a thou like I don't know how to make short-term stock price predictions but at some point you know if robo taxi takes off there's this question when robo taxi reaches scale but if robo taxi reaches scale by middle of 2027 and starts really pumping money into the company then the street has to figure that out

我一直听到人们抱怨,哦,特斯拉,为什么特斯拉没有中国公司拥有的先进电池技术?拥有先进电池技术的中国公司只在他们的高端车型上使用它们,而且数量非常少,特斯拉不制造低产量汽车。所以你必须将高端电池技术发展到可以大规模制造的程度,然后如果你成功了,特斯拉就会购买它们。

就像如果有人发明了那么好的固态电池,那么特斯拉将从制造它们的任何人那里购买电池。

like I keep hearing people complaining, oh Tes, how come Tesla doesn't have the advanced battery technology that the Chinese companies have? The Chinese companies with their advanced battery technology are using them only on their premium models in very very low volume and Tesla doesn't make low volume cars. So you have to get the premium battery technology to the point where you can manufacture it at large enough scale and then if you succeed in that then Tesla will buy them. Like if if somebody comes up with solid state batteries that are that good then Tesla will buy the batteries from whoever makes them.

而且我们知道有一家公司在制造真正智能的现实世界AI方面确实有优势,那就是特斯拉。所以,你很快就会拥有AI5芯片和Optimus机器人。

And there's one company that we know of that's really got an edge in making real world AI that's smart, and that's Tesla. So, you're going to have AI5 chips and Optimus robots soon.

仅仅因为我持有特斯拉、SpaceX、英伟达和谷歌的股票,并不意味着我有偏见。

Just just cuz I own stock in Tesla, SpaceX, Nvidia, and and Google. Doesn't mean I'm biased.

迫不及待想看到特斯拉成为SpaceX XAI的一部分。是的。顺便说一下,那是什么?Tesla Boomer Mama预测合并将在6月宣布,然后是6月或7月,然后是7月。我们现在是8月底。

他们宣布合并了吗?也许SpaceX将与特斯拉合并。也许。但每个预测它已经发生的人都没有道歉并说他们错了。做出错误预测的人不会受到问责。现在,我不是说他们不会合并。我不认为他们,我不知道,如果有合并提案,我会在当时评估该提案,而且我确信如果Elon说他们需要合并,那么我会支持它,因为我爱Elon,他比我更懂。

但我认为预测合并何时发生,说合并是好是坏是没有意义的。你知道,在提案出现之前,对特斯拉和SpaceX之间的合并进行无休止的猜测。因为如果有提案,我们会有时间去看它。我们会有时间思考它。

can't wait for Tesla to be part of SpaceX XAI. Yeah. You know, by the way, what was it? Tesla Boomer Mama predicted that the merger would be announced in June, then June or July, then July. We're at the end of August. Have they announced the merger yet? Like, maybe SpaceX is going to merge with Tesla. Maybe. But everyone who's predicted it would already have happened not apologized and said they were wrong. And pe people who make incorrect predictions are not held accountable. Now, I'm not saying they won't merge. I don't think they I don't know and I don't if there's a proposal to merge I'll evaluate the proposal at the time and I'm sure if Elon says they need to merge then I'll I'll support it because I love Elon and he knows better than I do. But I don't think it makes sense to predict when the merger is going to happen, say whether the merger is a good or a bad idea. You know, endless speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX until there's a proposal. Because if there's a proposal, we'll have time to look at it. We'll have time to think about it.

嗯,你知道,我要说这个。我不会卖出任何股票。我卖得不多。我卖了一些特斯拉来买SpaceX,不多。我不会再卖了,因为如果预测是真的,特斯拉的股东将获得溢价,如果他们在合并时以折扣价获得,为什么要支付全价呢?

Um, and you know, I'll say this. I'm not selling any. I didn't sell much. I sold some Tesla to buy SpaceX, not much. I'm not selling more because if the predictions are true and Tesla's shareholders are going to get a premium, why would you want to pay full price if you're going to get it at a discount when they do the merger?

SpaceX将比特斯拉增长得更快。合并花费的时间越长,你作为特斯拉股东在合并实体中获得的就越少。

SpaceX will grow faster than Tesla. The longer the merger it takes, the less you get as a Tesla administer the merged entity.

保持权重低。所以,做多特斯拉,保持权重低。

keep the weights down. So, long Tesla, keep the weights down.

看到很多特斯拉在Richard变得非常受欢迎。是的,看,一旦人们喜欢,就像在Tik Tok或Instagram上有一大波视频,人们喜欢驾驶,你知道,让特斯拉为他们驾驶,他们疯狂地说这太棒了。也许那会打动人们。

seeing lots of Teslas become very popular in Richard. Yeah, look once people like there's a there's a big surge of like videos on I guess Tik Tok or Instagram of people who are like driving, you know, letting the Tesla drive for them and they're like going nuts about this is amazing. Maybe that's going to swing people.

也许传统汽车制造商可能会屈服并同意授权特斯拉的FSD。传统汽车制造商授权特斯拉FSD的问题是他们必须修改他们的汽车,而且他们修改汽车的速度非常慢。他们必须安装摄像头。他们必须在车内为计算机硬件创造空间。

他们的汽车不是设计成整个汽车在一个软件和硬件系统上运行的。所以,他们需要三年时间来重新设计和修改他们的汽车。如果他们决定,你知道,两年前采用FSD,他们就会为它设计汽车。如果他们现在开始,大约需要3年才能有一辆为它准备好的汽车。

Maybe legacy automakers might just give in and agree to license Tesla's FSD. The problem with legacy automakers licensing Tesla FSD is they have to modify their cars and they're very slow at modifying their cars. They have to implement the cameras. They have to create a space in the car for the the computer hardware. Their cars are not designed where the whole car is operating on one software and hardware system. So, it's like three years for them to remodel to revise their cars. And if they if they decided, you know, two years ago that they were going to adopt FSD, they would be designing cars for it. If they start now, it's like 3 years before they have a car that's ready for it.

有人放了一个特斯拉在欧洲驾驶的视频,特斯拉在这里驾驶完全没有问题。是的。我的意思是FSD在很多地方都运行良好。特斯拉我不知道特斯拉在日本是否非常受欢迎。我刚刚在日本,Samir。嗯,它在增长,但还不是非常受欢迎。

Someone put a video of a Tesla driving in Europe and the Tesla had no issues at all driving over here. Yeah. I mean FSD is working well in a lot of places. Tesla is I don't know if Tesla's wildly popular in Japan. I was just in Japan Samir. Um, it's growing, but it's not it's not wildly popular yet.

而且我认为OpenAI和Anthropic在计算方面没有机会赶上,在硬件方面也没有机会赶上,而谷歌、SpaceX和英伟达比其他人都有巨大优势,除了特斯拉,特斯拉就像在另一个世界,与现实世界AI在一起。

And I think that OpenAI and Anthropic have no chance of catching up in compute and no chance of capping up catching up in hardware and that Google, SpaceX, and um Nvidia have a massive advantage over everybody else except Tesla which is in like Tesla's in this different world with the real world AI.

以上 18 段为这条视频中谈及 $TSLA 的全部内容。

他说在等什么

Robo taxi scaling and revenue contribution
暂无中文转述,仅英文原句可核对。
他没有说用什么来检验

这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断

AI Stocks Report with Warren Redlich 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-08-30看涨本条
对我来说,Tesla是现实世界AI。它是不同的,Tesla的现实世界AI没有竞争对手。我认为有很多人认为大型语言模型将在现实世界AI中取得成功。而我认为人们并没有真正理解现实世界AI有多难。
方向翻转
2026-08-23看跌
Tesla 已宣布 Cyber Cab 发布活动将于 9 月 3 日举行。
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