特斯拉在自动驾驶汽车和机器人领域拥有巨大的长期上行空间,这支持了其股价大幅上涨的看涨论点。
逐段跳播
所以,如果你持有像特斯拉这样的高贝塔资产,而股市下跌5%,特斯拉将下跌10%。
So, if you have a high beta asset like Tesla and the stock market falls 5%, Tesla will fall 10%.
特斯拉和SpaceX预计将实现显著增长。我喜欢20种途径达到特斯拉8000美元的想法,但我难以理解这怎么可能实现。特斯拉达到8000美元将带来31.6万亿美元的市值,而目前全球GDP为126.3万亿美元。
Tesla and SpaceX are expecting significant growth. I love the thought of 20 ways to $8,000 Tesla, but I have difficulty understanding how this would be possible. Tesla at 8,000 would bring in to a market cap of 31.6 6 trillion while the entire current world GB GDP is 126.3 trillion.
但如果特斯拉占全球GDP的25%,那意味着什么?而且有了这些资产,必然会有某种形式的估值压缩。你对这种可能性有何看法?
But what would that mean for Tesla is if it's 25% of the world's GDP and with these assets there must be multiple compressions of some kind. How do you think plan about this eventuality as well?
第一,我制作了一个视频,讲的是到2032年特斯拉股价达到8000美元的八种途径。我制作那个视频差不多是四年前的事了。所以,那是很久以前,但它确实深入人心,我并没有放弃那个观点。
Number one, I made a video, eight ways to $8,000 for the Tesla price in the year 2032. I made that video nearly 4 years ago. So, it's a long time ago, but it really sticks in people's minds, and I'm not backing away from that.
而且,我是在现在所有这些好事发生之前制作的。现在我们有了像Megapack、推理、汽车,以及所有现在成为锂工厂一部分的东西,还有正在得克萨斯州奥斯汀建设的1000万台Optimus工厂。
四年前我对这些一无所知。那都是新的。这就是为什么从八种途径变成了二十种途径。所以现在甚至更容易了。
Also, I made it before all of the goodness that has actually happened now. Now we got things like megapods and inference and cars and all the stuff that was is now part lithium factories stuff that was not part or a 10 million Optimus factory that's being built right now in Austin, Texas. I wasn't aware of any of that 4 years ago. That's all new. That's why it's gone from eight ways to 20 ways. So it's even easier now.
好的,首先,如果一家公司有39.5亿股,未来它将会有这么多,股价8000美元将带我们到31.6万亿美元。是的,正确。你说得对。
Okay, first of all, if a company has 3.95 billion shares, which it will have in the future, stock price 8,000 takes us to 31.6 trillion. Yes, correct. You have that right.
CyberCab和机器人出租车是一个全球10万亿美元的机会。特斯拉现在正把一大批CyberCab带到日本。日本实际上希望在四个主要城市实现自动驾驶CyberCab,因为我过去也报道过这一点。
CyberCab is a and robot taxi is a $10 trillion opportunity globally. You got Tesla now bringing a whole bunch of cyber cabs to Japan. Japan actually want autonomous cyber cabs in four major cities because I've also covered this in the past before.
然后我们有Optimus,30万亿美元。而且根据他在G20上所说的,甚至更多。好的。如果Optimus,人形机器人能将全球GDP提高10倍,我们谈论的远不止30万亿美元的机会。
Then we have Optimus 30 trillion. And per what he said of the G20, it's even a lot more. Okay. If Optimus, human optimist could 10x global GDP, we're talking way more than a $30 trillion opportunity.
仅这两项加起来就是40万亿美元。如果你保守地假设特斯拉在全球市场中占据25%的份额。CyberCab我认为会高得多,更像是50%到60%。但这导致1万亿美元的收入,从那里我们可以计算一些利润。
好的,40万亿美元的机会,特斯拉占据25%,1万亿美元的收入,25%的净利润率。记住,他们做的很多事情都是极高利润率的业务,这意味着2.5万亿美元的收益乘以13倍的市盈率,这是非常低的。
非常低,是32万亿美元的市值,我们反推出每股8000美元。非常简单。
Just these two combined is 40 trillion. If you assume conservatively Tesla, okay, does 25% of that market globally. Cyber caps I think it'll be a lot higher more like 50 to 60%. But that results in 10 trillion in revenue and from there we can calculate some profits. Okay, 40 trillion opportunity, 25% Tesla capture, 10 trillion in revenue, 25% net margin. And remember, a lot of these things that they do are extremely high margin businesses, which means 2.5 trillion in earnings times a PE of 13, which is incredibly low. Incredibly low, is a $32 trillion market cap, and we back into our $8,000 a share. Real simple.
我要再次强调。我制作那个8000美元,八种途径达到8000美元的视频差不多是在四年前,那时这些大部分甚至还不存在。好吗?所以,这就是你反推出这些数字的方法。我知道它们听起来很疯狂,但事情可能比2032年要花更长的时间,但无论如何,世界变化的速度是天文数字般的。
And I'll stress this again. I made that 8,000, eight ways to 8,000 nearly four years ago before most of this even existed. Okay? So, that's how you back into these numbers. And I know they sound crazy uh but and things may take a little bit longer than 2032 but either way the speed at which things are changing in the world is astronomical.
然后你还有像特斯拉和Palantir这样的名字。是的,与英伟达和其他公司相比,它们的定价仍然很高,但它们追求的是大得多的总可寻址市场。大得多,大得多,大得多。
And then you got names like Tesla and Palanteer. And yeah, they're still priced high compared to Nvidia and others, but they're going after way bigger total addressable markets. Way, way, way bigger.
好奇你理想中会将总投资组合的多少比例分配给特斯拉和SpaceX?我知道你对两者都非常有信心。如果它们最终合并,你会担心过度集中于一个生态系统,还是你对非常大的马斯克产业配置感到满意?
Curious what percentage of your total portfolio you'd ideally be allocated to Tesla and SpaceX? I know you're very high conviction on both. If they eventually merge, would that make you concerned about being too concentrated in one ecosystem or are you comfortable with a very large Musk Industries allocation?
事实上,它们太大了,当你把它们全部加起来,我经过细致计算得出的总TAM是特斯拉75.8万亿美元,SpaceX 28.5万亿美元。
In fact, they're so big when you add them all up, the total TAMs that I have calculated in painstaking detail is $75.8 trillion for Tesla and $28.5 trillion for SpaceX.
而特斯拉,就是CyberCab、能源存储、人形机器人Optimus,都是巨大的、巨大的TAM。
and Tesla it's just cyber cabs energy storage humanoid optimus all massive massive TAMs
如果你持有大量特斯拉,想象你40%是特斯拉,你知道,你想加入一些SpaceX。你没有任何。这是一家全新的公司,那么尝试达到7%或5%或任何你的风险承受能力,找到正确的平衡。
If you have, say, a lot of Tesla, imagine you're 40% Tesla, you know, and you want to add in some SpaceX. You don't have any. it's a brand new company then try get to 7% or 5% or whatever is your risk tolerance find the right balance
当特斯拉被收购或合并时,将会有很大的溢价。
There will be a big premium on Tesla when they get acquired or merged.
他们在卖出特斯拉吗?不。他们在增持吗?是的。
Are they selling their Tesla? No. Are they stacking? Yes.
我真的很感兴趣最终拥有一两辆特斯拉机器人出租车,作为我孙辈的小型家族企业机会。你认为特斯拉什么时候会允许个人零售车主将他们的车辆加入机器人出租车车队并从中赚取收入?
I'm really interested in eventually having one or two Tesla robo taxis as a small family business opportunity for my grandkids. When do you think Tesla will allow individual retail owners to add their vehicles to the robo taxi fleet and earn income from them?
那么,你认为特斯拉最终会向零售客户出售 Cyber Cab 吗?如果普通私人拥有的特斯拉也被加入机器人出租车车队,你认为 18 岁以下的儿童也能乘坐那些车吗?
And do you think Tesla will eventually sell the Cyber Cab to retail customers? And if regular privately owned Teslas are added to the robo taxi fleet, do you think kids under 18 could ride in those, too?
首先,关于拥有 Cyber Cab 的时间表。这是 Dylan Lumis 早在二月份提到的。埃隆说,他说:“我们能否在 2027 年之前以 30,000 美元或更低的价格买到 Cyber Cab,这意味着在接下来的 4 个月内?”
First of all, the timeline for owning the Cyber Cab. This from Dylan Lumis way back in Feb. And Elon said uh he said, "Will we be able to buy a Cyber Cab for $30,000 or less before 2027, which means over the next 4 months?"
所以,基本上告诉人们,是的,你将能够购买你自己的 Cyber Cab,也许我认识一些人想用它来接送他们的祖母或什么的,你知道,这样人们就可以拥有自由和自主权,不必担心他们开车,或者他们可以把它投入车队。这将在年底前发生。
So, it's basically told people, yes, you'll be able to buy your own cyber cab and maybe I know people who want to use it for their grandma or whatever, you know, so people can have freedom and autonomy and not have to worry about them driving or they can kick it into the fleet. That will be happening before year end.
但是是的,Cyber Cab,如果他们出售它们,只要当地法规允许,你将能够将它们投入车队。Tesla Yoda 也表示,你将能够以 30K 的价格向个人出售 Cyber Caps,并将其纳入 Robbo 出租车网络。
But yes, cyber cabs, if they're selling them, you will be able to spin them into a fleet as long as the regulations locally allow that. Tesla Yoda as well said you'll be able to sell Cyber Caps to individuals for 30K and roll into the Robbo taxi network.
现在另一件事,车主运营商也要注意,如果特斯拉想主导自己的市场,并且他们建立了所有基础设施,比如德克萨斯州奥斯汀,那可能是一个很难打入的市场。
Now the other thing as well that owner operator gate 2 to be aware of if Tesla wants to dominate their own market and they built out all their infrastructure like Austin Texas that might be a very hard market to penetrate.
然而,特斯拉的规定稍微严格一些。你确实问了。这些是目前的规定。Model Y 机器人出租车,不允许 8 岁以下的儿童乘坐,8 至 17 岁需要成人陪同。而 Cyber Cab,不允许 13 岁以下的人乘坐,13 至 17 岁的青少年也需要成人陪同。
And the Tesla rules, however, are a little bit stiffer. You did ask. These are the rules so far. Uh Model Y robo taxi, no kids under the age of eight and ages 8 to 17 need an adult with them. And cyber cabab, no one under 13 and 13 to 17 year olds need an adult with them as well.
这些规定可能会改变。我们不知道一段时间后它们会是什么样子,但我认为最初安全第一,这是特斯拉的口号。
These rules can change. We don't know exactly what they'll look like in in a while, but I think initially safety first, which is the mantra for Tesla.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。