特斯拉的Cybercab因去除零部件而拥有巨大的成本优势，使其能够主导机器人出租车市场并消除竞争。
逐段跳播
特斯拉在德克萨斯州奥斯汀举办了“Cybertruck Lollapalooza”活动。你知道，Cybertruck 是 Elon 的双座电动车，车门向上开启，没有方向盘，没有踏板，设计上完全依靠特斯拉的自动驾驶软件运行。这是一款从零开始为完全自动驾驶设计的车辆。
Tesla held its "CyberTruck Lollapalooza" event in Austin, Texas. you know that the Cybertruck is Elon's two-seater electric car, with upward-opening doors, no steering wheel, no pedals, and designed to operate entirely with Tesla's self-driving software. This, this is a vehicle designed from scratch for complete autonomy.
但实际上，他们从车上移除的部件数量显著降低了成本。因此，没有驾驶员，与汽车相关的大量成本就消失了。因此，任何人都无法在价格上匹配这辆车。
But in reality, the number of components they removed from the car significantly reduces the cost . Therefore, there is no driver, and a huge amount of the costs associated with the car have disappeared. Therefore, there is no way for anyone to match the price of this car that.
没有人能够在实际硬件本身的成本上匹配特斯拉。这条评论完全没有提到模块化制造系统，该系统本身就会带来巨大的成本降低，可能占车辆成本的大部分。但只提到了那些产品中实际上不需要的东西：方向盘、踏板以及转向和制动连接。
没有侧视镜，而且仅仅因为不需要满足驾驶员的需求，就节省了许多成本。
No one will be able to match Tesla's cost for the actual hardware itself. This comment made no mention whatsoever of the modular manufacturing system , which in itself would result in a massive reduction , perhaps the bulk of the vehicle's cost. But only the things that you don't actually need to have in the product: the steering wheel, pedals, and steering and braking connections. There are no side mirrors, and there are many cost savings simply from not having to meet the driver's needs.
所有道路都通向一个巨大的硬件成本优势，任何试图在机器人领域与特斯拉竞争的公司都无法接近，更不用说匹配或超越了。
All roads lead to a massive hardware cost advantage that no company attempting to compete with Tesla in the robotics field will be able to come close to, let alone match or surpass .
到目前为止，Moonshots 播客对特斯拉的 Cyber Cab 提供了出色的分析。我一直说，没有人能够匹配特斯拉 Cybercab 的成本。
So far, the Moonshots podcast has provided an excellent analysis of Tesla's Cyber Cab. I've been saying that no one will be able to match the cost of a Tesla Cybercab.
通过消除车内的部件，任何人都无法匹配这款车的价格点。与 Zoox、Waymo 或任何其他竞争对手相比，这是关键点。
By eliminating the components in the car, there is no way for anyone to match the price point of this vehicle. This is the key point compared to companies like Zoox, Waymo, or any other competitor.
我的意思是，Elon 想以每辆 30,000 美元的价格出售它们，这样你就可以购买，而且我认为购买 10 辆并将它们投放到你所在城市的街道上以产生收入是一个伟大的创业冒险。
I mean, Elon wants to sell them for 30,000 each so you can buy them, and I think it's a great entrepreneurial venture to buy 10 of them and put them on the streets of your city to generate income.
所以，在奥斯汀的首批乘客之一，我在这里引用，报告说 CyberCab 在类似行程中比 Uber 便宜约 50%，行程被描述为更平稳、更干净，并且具有自动音频同步和乘客配置文件中的座椅设置。
So, one of the first passengers in Austin, and I quote this here, reported that CyberCab is about 50% cheaper than Uber for similar trips, with the trips described as smoother and cleaner with automatic audio sync and seat settings in the passenger profile.
这确实非同寻常，请记住，内华达州已允许特斯拉在未来十二个月内在拉斯维加斯的道路上运营 5,000 辆这样的车辆。
It is truly extraordinary, and remember that Nevada granted Tesla permission to operate 5,000 of these vehicles on the roads in Las Vegas for the next twelve months .
我的意思是，它将完全消除竞争。你认为这是特斯拉的“Chat GPT”时刻吗？我认为是的，回到我们第一位嘉宾的观点，没有人能够在成本基础上竞争。
I mean, it will completely eliminate the competition. Do you think this is Tesla's "Chat GPT" moment? I think so, and going back to our first guest point, no one will be able to compete on the basis of cost.
现在，播客主持人 Peter 说特斯拉将把所有人赶出市场，就在展示了 CyberCab 和 Uber 汽车之间的价格比较之后。在两点上，令我惊讶的是，我完全同意。
Now, Peter, the podcast host, says Tesla will drive everyone out of the market , after just showing a price comparison between CyberCab and Uber cars. On both points, and to my surprise, I completely agree.
抱歉，Jason。我渴望听到你的意见。你认为这是特斯拉的“Chat GBT”时刻吗？
Sorry, Jason. I'm eager to hear your opinion on this. Do you think this is Tesla's "Chat GBT" moment?
我认为这是可能的，这是一个经典的“EXO”模型，不是吗？独立性、去中心化、交互界面的存在以及可用资产的利用。如果 Elon 设法让人们购买这些车辆并从中创建数百万个小特许经营权，由此产生的忠诚度将是不可思议的。
I think this is possible, and this is a classic "EXO" model , isn't it? Independence, decentralization, the presence of interaction interfaces, and the utilization of available assets. If Elon manages to get people to buy these vehicles and create millions of small franchises from them, the resulting loyalty will be incredible.
当然，它们都将配备 Starlink 服务。因此，一个完全垂直整合的工作结构强烈地自我施加。我认为最令人兴奋的部分是，交通成本将再下降一个数量级，从今天的每英里两美元降至每英里20美分。
Of course, they will all be equipped with Starlink service. Therefore, a fully vertically integrated work structure strongly imposes itself. I think the most exciting part is that the cost of transportation will drop by another decimal place , from two dollars a mile today to 20 cents a mile.
当特斯拉首次发布Cybertruck时，这是一个非常明显的智力测试。那些疑惑“为什么它只有两个座位？”的人——这不是智力测试。提问绝不是缺乏智力的表现。缺乏智力的证据在于那些说两个座位的设计是愚蠢的想法或糟糕的设计的人。
This was a very clear intelligence test when Tesla first unveiled the Cybertruck. People who wondered: "Why does it only have two seats?" This is not an intelligence test. Asking questions is never a sign of a lack of intelligence. The evidence of a lack of intelligence was in people saying that the design of the two seats was a stupid idea or a bad design.
正如我们刚才在播客中听到的，Uber或出租车中的平均乘客数接近一人。有时会有两人。在极少数需要超过两名乘客的情况下，这可能占行程的5%，或最多10%，具体取决于地点，第一个选择是请求一辆作为自动驾驶出租车运营的“Model 3”或“Model Y”汽车。
或者，等等这个疯狂的想法，订购我的车或三辆“Cyber Trucks”。
As we just heard on the podcast here, the average number of passengers in an Uber or taxi is close to one person. Sometimes there are two of them. In the very rare case where you need more than two passengers, which represents perhaps 5% of trips, or 10% at most depending on the location, the first option is to request a "Model 3" or "Model Y" car that operates as an automated taxi instead . Or, wait for this crazy idea, order my car or three "Cyber Trucks".
双座车辆背后的根本原因不仅仅是相同的二元选择问题。要制造一辆与四座或五座车辆运营成本相同的双座车辆。通过设计双座车辆，它在成本和减少质量方面得到了极大改善，这意味着更低的运营成本。
生产成本更低，这意味着他们能够以比原本更低的价格向消费者提供服务。
The underlying reason behind the two-seater vehicle is not simply a matter of identical binary options. To build a two-seater vehicle that you can operate for the same cost as a four- or five-seater vehicle. By designing a two-seater vehicle, it is greatly improved in terms of cost and reduced mass, which means lower operating costs. Production costs are lower, which means they can offer the service at a lower price to consumers than would otherwise be the case .
这就是为什么即使像我这样的傻瓜也能在特斯拉发布其机器人出租车之前预测到，它肯定会是一辆双门双座车辆。埃隆，凭借他无限的才华，说：现在我们只需要两个。通过这种设计，我们仅安全气囊的成本就削减了一半。
在极少数需要三四个人的情况下，叫两辆。故事结束了。
That's why even a stupid person like me was able to predict, before Tesla unveiled its robot taxi , that it would definitely be a two-door, two-seat vehicle. Elon, with his infinite genius, says: Now we only need two. We have cut the cost of the airbags alone in half with this design. In the rare case where you need three or four people, get two of them. The story is over.
或者再次，将会有互补的“Model Y”汽车，也许还有“Model 3”，甚至可能有一天车队中也会有“Cyber Truck”。
Or again, there will be complementary "Model Y" cars, and perhaps a "Model 3", and maybe even a "Cyber Truck" someday in the fleet as well.
回到最重要的一点，这里的成本节省确实是双倍的。成本节省意味着更低的运营成本，这意味着更低的服务使用成本，这意味着没有人能在成本上与特斯拉竞争。
Returning to the most important point, the cost savings here are truly doubled. Cost savings mean lower operating costs, which means lower costs to use the service, and that means no one will be able to compete with Tesla on cost.
想象你是Waymo或Uber。选择你开始提供自助服务并开始扩张的公司。你付给另一家公司50、60、70、80、90或10万美元来制造一辆车，一辆带方向盘和踏板的四座或五座车，然后你还必须在车上加装一套昂贵的传感器。
这意味着让“机器人出租车”上路将花费你五倍或更多的成本。此外，因为你承载了更大的质量，你的推进系统效率较低，而且你每英里的运营成本要高得多。
Imagine you are Waymo or Uber. Choose your company that started offering self-service and began to expand. You pay another company $50, 60, 70, 80, 90, or $100,000 to build a vehicle, a four- or five-seater vehicle with a steering wheel and pedals, and then you have to add a set of expensive sensors to the vehicle as well. This means that putting "robotaxi" on the roads will cost you five times or more. In addition, because you carry a larger mass, you have a less efficient propulsion system, and you have much higher operating costs per mile.
正如我在本段开头所说，没有人能匹配特斯拉的成本，所以把这些点连起来。他们真的陷入了困境。如果你不是特斯拉，无论是人工驾驶服务还是自动驾驶出租车，你如何匹配甚至接近特斯拉每英里使用其服务的成本？
答案是，你补贴你的行程，每英里都亏本提供。但如果每次你向客户提供行程时，你都必须提供远低于你实际服务成本的折扣，以至于每次行程都亏钱，那么你提供的行程越多，你亏得越多。这在我看来不是一个可行的业务。
As I said at the beginning of this segment, no one will be able to match Tesla's cost, so connect the dots . They are in real trouble. If you're not Tesla, whether it's a human-driven service or an automated taxi, how can you match or even come close to Tesla's cost per mile for using its services? The answer is that you support your trips and offer them at a loss for every mile. But if every time you offer a trip to a customer, you have to offer a very large discount below your actual cost of providing the service, so that you lose money on every trip , then the more trips you offer, the more you lose. This does not seem like a viable business to me.
答案：他们得出结论，没有人能在成本上竞争。特斯拉将取代像Uber、Waymo和出租车这样的公司。基本上，Waymo和Uber真的陷入了困境。特斯拉将接管，这对其他所有人来说都是终结。
Answer: They conclude that no one will be able to compete on cost. Tesla will displace companies like Uber, Waymo, and taxis. Basically, Waymo and Uber are in real trouble. Tesla will take over, and it will be the end for everyone else.
至少，这是我在听“Moon Shots”播客时，作为一个痴迷于特斯拉的粉丝所听到的。我新的20年特斯拉和SpaceX估值模型现在也可以在Patreon上供投资者级别及以上的支持者使用。
At least, that's what I heard, as a Tesla-obsessed fan, when listening to the "Moon Shots" podcast . My new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is now also available on Patreon for investor-level and above support.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。