特斯拉应优先发展 Cybercab 和 Optimus，而非平价消费车型，因为自动驾驶带来的投资回报率更高。
逐段跳播
以下是 Moonshots 播客上的几位在更详细地谈论特斯拉的 Cyber Cab。记住，特斯拉最初曾预告要推出一款 Model 2，也就是他们那款备受觊觎的 25,000 美元车型。这件事从未发生。
Here are the boys on the Moonshots podcast talking in more detail about Tesla's Cyber Cab. Remember, Tesla was originally teasing that it was going to launch a Model 2, which was going to be their highly coveted $25,000 car. That never happened.
现在，需要说明的是，特斯拉自己从未使用过 Model 2 这个名字。这是一群特斯拉粉丝想出来的主意，而这最初确实是有可能的。
Now, to be clear, Tesla themselves never used the name Model 2. This was a bunch of Tesla fanboys coming up with the idea, and this was surely on the cards initially.
你能从 Model 3 和 Y 平台上挤出的成本是有限的。所以，我们很久以前就都推测，鉴于特斯拉最初期望每年生产 1000 万到 2000 万辆汽车，他们必须持续大幅压低成本。
There's only so much cost you can squeeze out of the Model 3 and Y platform. So, we all presumed long ago with Tesla's initial expectation of getting 10 20 million vehicles produced per year that they have to continue to massively drive cost down.
我最初的预期是，为 Cybercab 生产开发的模块化制造系统也会被应用到未来一代面向消费者的特斯拉车型上。我不认为这个计划已经改变。不过，它确实被降了优先级，而且理应如此。
My expectation originally was that the modular manufacturing system developed for cyberc production would also be implemented into a future generation of Tesla vehicles for consumers. And I don't think this plan has changed. However, it was certainly dep prioritized rightly so.
正如我当时所说，最初的信号是 Giga Mexico，也就是特斯拉可能用来大规模生产一款更实惠车型的那家工厂。当它被宣布、随后很快又被搁置时，那就是直接的信号。他们正全力押注他们的 robotaxi。而这说得通。
As I said at the time, the initial signal here was when Giga Mexico, the factory that Tesla was likely to produce a more affordable vehicle at massive scale. When that was announced and then very soon after put on hold, that was the immediate signal. out. They're going all in on their robo taxi. And this makes sense.
正如我当时也说过的那样，特斯拉只有那么多 gigabrain 工程师。你不会希望他们同时专注于太多棘手的问题，尤其是在这项技术看起来已经可以大规模生产 robotaxi 的时候。
As I also said at the time, Tesla only has so many gigab brain engineers. You don't want them focused on too many desperate problems at the same time, especially when the technology is looking viable for mass- prodducing a robo taxi.
你真的希望人们瞎折腾、浪费时间和脑力，而这些本可以全部集中在自动驾驶和人形机器人上吗？你真的希望他们在一款更实惠的、卖给消费者的车型上瞎折腾，去赚取仍然非常像汽车行业的利润率，而他们本可以把 100% 的脑力集中在解决自动驾驶、完成 CyberCab 的设计和制造系统、以及特斯拉 robotaxi CyberCab 的经济账上吗？
如果他们能以低于 20,000 美元、甚至 20,000 美元的价格生产出这些东西，单年运营就能跑出与今天全职 Uber 或出租车相当里程，他们就能带来 20,000、30,000、40,000、50,000 美元的收入，在单一年内完全覆盖成本。
Do you really want people pissing around wasting time and brain cycles that could be focused all in on autonomy and the humanoid robot? Do you really want them [ __ ] around on a more affordable vehicle to sell to consumers for still very automotive industry-esque margins when instead they could be focusing 100% of their brain cycles on solving autonomy finishing the design the manufacturing systems for CyberCap the economics of Tesla's robo taxi CyberCap if they can produce these things for sub20 $20,000 a single year of operation doing comparable miles to a full-time Uber or taxi today they could bring in 20 30 40 $50,000 of revenues entirely covering their costs in a single year.
或者你可以把一辆车卖给客户，就算它大概 25,000 美元，也许 30,000，从中赚一次 5,000、6,000、7,000、8,000 美元的利润。然后如果运气好，也许他们会订阅 FSD。
Or you can sell a vehicle to customers for call it maybe $25,000, maybe 30, make a 56 7 $8,000 margin on that once. And then if you're lucky, maybe they subscribe to FSD2.
我当时也说过，作为特斯拉投资者，如果他们在专注于新一代更实惠车型的同时，又让一批设计师、工程师、gigabrain 也去做专用的 robotaxi 自动驾驶，从而把他们的资源、他们的智力资源摊得太薄，我会极其恼火。
at the time. I also said I would be extremely pissed off as a Tesla investor if they were simultaneously focused on a new generation of more affordable vehicles while at the exact same time spreading their resources, their intellectual resources too thin by having a bunch of designers, engineers, gigabrains also working on the dedicated robotaxian autonomy.
这个类比是，特斯拉只有数量有限的极高智商人才，能够解决诸如一款大幅更实惠的车型、扩大自动驾驶生产规模以及 Optimus 人形机器人这类极其艰巨的问题。
The analogy was Tesla has a limited number of extremely high IQ individuals capable of solving monumentally challenging problems such as a massively more affordable vehicle and scaling production autonomy and the Optimus humanoid robot.
鉴于他们极其有限的资源 gigabrain 受到巨大约束，你不会希望你的 gigabrain 走进那些只会产生糟糕财务回报的门，而同样的这些聪明大脑本可以走进其他门。那些门会带来 10 倍、100 倍、1000 倍的财务投资回报。
Given the massive constraint on their extremely limited resource gigabrains, you don't want your gigabrains walking through doors are going to produce piss poor financial returns when there are other doors available for those same big brains to go through. They'll produce 10, 100, a thousand times the financial return on investment.
未来一代面向消费者的车型会来自特斯拉，采用 Cyber Cab 的模块化制造系统。但我极其确信，特斯拉当前强烈而明确的优先事项是大规模地在全球部署 CyberCab，并扩大 Optimus 人形机器人的生产。
A future generation of consumer vehicles will come from Tesla. Implementing the modular manufacturing system from the Cyber Cap. But I'm extremely confident that Tesla's strong and clear priority right now deploy CyberCap at massive scale globally and scale up production of the Optimus humanoid robot.
仅这两个项目，在财务、利润以及任何公司能在汽车销售上做到的事情方面，都将令其相形见绌。非常重要的是要理解通用自动驾驶有多么困难，以及赌注有多么极高。而我对这一情况的最佳解读是，原本计划作为特斯拉 Model 2 的车型变成了这款 robotaxi，因为在某个时点，一旦这辆车的价值——我应该说这辆车的销售价值——跌破某个门槛，通过自动驾驶共享出行或 robotaxi 服务来变现它就比真正把车卖出去更划算。
These two projects alone will utterly dwarf in terms of finances, profits, anything the company could do in automotive vehicle sales. It's very important to understand how challenging general autonomy is and how extremely high the stakes are. And my best read of the the situation is what was originally planned as the Tesla Model 2 became this robo taxi because at some point once the the car the value of the car or the sales value I should say of the car crosses below some threshold it makes more sense to monetize it via autonomous ride sharing or robo taxi services than it does to actually sell the car.
并不是说特斯拉会或应该停止向消费者卖车。但如果他们这么做，随着自动驾驶规模扩大，这不会在财务上给公司带来实质影响。你根本不会注意到汽车销售业务的损失。这就是自动驾驶在规模化的盈利能力。
Not that Tesla would or should stop selling vehicles to consumers. But if they were to do this, as autonomy scales, it would not move the needle financially for the company. You wouldn't notice the loss of the automotive sale business whatsoever. That's how profitable autonomy is going to be at scale.
这笔账非常简单。假设特斯拉每英里赚 50 美分利润，每辆 Cyber Cab 每年行驶 50,000 英里，这大约相当于一辆全职出租车。那就是每年 25,000 美元的利润。如果他们能以低于 25,000 美元的成本制造一辆 Cyber Cab——顺便说一句，他们能够做到——那么它一年就能回本。
到第二年，你就又赚回了一辆 Cyber Cab。你可以用 25,000 美元或更低的成本生产出一项资产，在 10 年内——而且这还是极其保守的估计——带来 400 万美元或更多的收入。这是疯狂的投资回报。
The math is real simple. Let's say Tesla makes a profit of 50 cents per mile and each Cyber Cab travels 50,000 m per year, which is about the same as a full-time taxi. That's $25,000 per year off profits. If they can manufacture a cyber cap for less than $25,000, which by the way, they'll be able to. They pay for themselves in a single year. In year two, you've now paid for another cyber cap. You could produce an asset for $25,000 or less that over 10 years. And these are in extremely conservative estimates brings in a4 million or more. That's a crazy return on investment.
你不可能一次做完所有事。而像特斯拉这样的公司，它们最大的约束、最稀缺的资源，就是聪明大脑工程师。所以，你能把这些聪明大脑、这些聪明大脑工程师部署到哪里，才能从智力资本和投资中获得最佳回报？答案是自动驾驶和人形机器人项目。
You can't do everything at once. And companies like Tesla, their biggest constraint, their most scarce resource, big brain engineers. So where can you deploy those big brains of your big brain engineers to get the best return on the intellectual capital the investment and the answer is autonomy and the humanoid robot projects
如果像特斯拉这样的公司能够大规模且迅速地推广安全的自动驾驶汽车，而如果我彻底完蛋了，我会绝望到愿意做几乎任何事来不死。
If a company such as Tesla were to massively and rapidly scale safe autonomous vehicles, and if I was completely cooked, I'd be so desperate that I'd be willing to do just about anything to not die.
再回到特斯拉那款更实惠的车型，我相信它会来，但它应该是非常低的优先级。要等到 Cybercab 在美国和全世界迅速而广泛地规模化、Optimus 生产已经启动、首批客户交付已经完成，然后那些 Giga Brain 才会闲坐着说：“好吧，现在自动驾驶和 Optimus 一切都顺风顺水了。我们接下来该把我们的巨大脑力集中在哪里？”
And just to go back to Tesla's more affordable vehicle, I'm sure it will come, but it should be a very low priority. Not until Cybercap is rapidly and widely scaling throughout the US and the world and Optimus production is underway, first customer deliveries have taken place, and then the Giga Brains are sitting around going, "Well, everything's going swimmingly now on autonomy and Optimus. What should we focus our massive brains on next?"
我全新的20年期Tesla和SpaceX估值模型现已在Patreon上线，面向投资者级别及以上的支持者开放。
My new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is now also live on Patreon to supporters at the investor level and above.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。