$TSLA

特斯拉与SpaceX的合并不可避免,且将被提出;其成败取决于股东能否理解SpaceX的价值。

《Elon Stuns When Asked About Tesla & SpaceX Merger (at All In Summit today)》
Solving The Money Problem发布 2026-09-15 · 15 段内容
00:08/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

15 段内容
0:0810:49

对,说得好。在这么多层面上都有这样的合作,你可以想象,当这么多领域存在如此紧密的合作时,人们可能会采取什么行动。

Yeah, good good point. You know, with all this collaboration on so many levels, you can imagine what what action one one might take uh when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas.

但在这个视频里,我们只打算看一个简短的亮点,具体是关于Terraab,以及特斯拉与SpaceX合并的可能性。我们只聚焦于特斯拉和/或SpaceX投资者关注的亮点。

But in this video, we're just going to check out a quick highlight specifically relating to Terraab and the potential of a Tesla and SpaceX merger. we're just going to focus on the Tesla and or SpaceX investor focused highlights.

即便它们不停下来,如果不自己动手,特斯拉和SpaceX根本无法获得接近足够多的芯片来实现它们的长期目标。

even if they don't stop coming, without taking matters into their own hands, Tesla and SpaceX simply won't be able to get their hands on anywhere near enough chips to achieve their long-term goals.

我们在奥斯汀正在建一个研发晶圆厂。这是特斯拉和SpaceX之间的合作。

there's an R&D fab that we're building in Austin. Uh that's a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.

我需要问一个特斯拉的问题,因为我们在1001上看到了。百分之百是关于新款特斯拉Roadster的正式发布,顺便说一句,这将是一款产量非常低的车型。它不应成为特斯拉的优先事项。然而,纯粹从营销和为特斯拉带来的关注度来看,这东西本身就会卖出无数的Model Y和Model 3。

I need to ask a Tesla question because we saw on 1001. 100% about the literal launch of the new Tesla Roadster, which for the record, it's going to be a very low volume vehicle.

It should not be a priority at Tesla. However, from pure marketing and attention for Tesla, this thing itself will sell countless Model Y's, Model 3s.

埃隆,你为什么还拥有两家独立的公司?现在,请记住,如果这个可能合并特斯拉和SpaceX的想法已在考虑之中并已被讨论过,我认为这种可能性大约在99.9999999942069%左右。

Elon, why do you why do you still have two separate companies? Now, keep in mind if this idea of potentially combining Tesla and SpaceX is on the cards and has been discussed, I think odds of that are somewhere in the vicinity of [snorts] 99.9999999942069%.

那么想必马斯克除了或许暗示两家公司之间存在一些协同效应之外,也说不了太多。因为这里的要点是,从监管角度看,马斯克的手脚很可能被相当程度地束缚住了。

Then presumably Musk wouldn't be able to say a great deal other than maybe hinting at the fact that there are some synergies between the two companies. because the point here is Musk's hands from a regulatory point of view are probably fairly tied.

如果这件事没有被讨论过,或者并非可能正在推进之中,他大可以直接说:“不,不会发生的,兄弟。”

If it hasn't been discussed or isn't potentially in the works and he could just say, "Yeah, no, that's not going to happen, bro."

不过,这并不意味着那会得到特斯拉股东的批准。显然,这两家公司相当明显地属于彼此。如果你在4万亿号字体里读出字里行间的意思,它说的是合并不可避免,但还有几个步骤。

Now, that doesn't mean that would be approved by Tesla shareholders. Obviously, the two companies belong together quite clearly. If you read between the lines in size 4 trillion font, it says a merger is inevitable, but there's a few steps.

它首先需要被提出。然后需要被投票表决。投票需要通过。而且门槛相当高。据我所知,缺席投票算作自动反对。所以,你需要非常高的投票率,并且很多参与投票的人投赞成票。然后它实际上还需要获得批准、通过并完成交割。

It first needs to be proposed. It then needs to be voted on. The vote needs to pass. and the bar is quite high. Absentee votes, as far as I understand, count as an automatic no. So, you need really high turnout and a lot of the people turning out voting in favor.

And then it would actually need to get approved, pass, and close.

那么,这合理吗?合理。应该被提出吗?显然应该。根据马斯克在这里的回答,它会被提出吗?当然。

So, does it make sense? Yes. Should it be proposed? Obviously. Will it be proposed based on Musk's answer here? Oh, [ __ ] course.

那么真正剩下的问题很简单:会有足够多的特斯拉股东赞成,使其获得批准并真正完成交割吗?重新表述这个问题的方式是:是否有足够多的特斯拉股东对SpaceX未来收入增长、利润增长的前景有足够充分的理解,对这家公司有足够清晰的图景,从而意识到这是显而易见的选择?

The real then remaining question is simply, will enough Tesla shareholders be in favor for it to be approved and actually close? And the way to reframe that question is, do enough Tesla shareholders have enough of an understanding about what the future for SpaceX revenue growth, profit growth looks like, a clear enough picture of the company to realize it's a no-brainer.

这就是未知的未知。但我得说,看到这里的人里,不可能还有谁会觉得,哦,我仍然不太确定这个想法是否在考虑之中,以及它是否会被提出。

That is the unknown unknown. But I got to say, there cannot be a single person left watching this who thinks, oh, I still don't really know if this idea is on the cards and whether or not it will be proposed.

我想说的最后一点是,马斯克本可以用一百万种不同的方式来回答这个问题,包括用一堆法律上的托词说:“嗯,如果真发生这样的事,那我其实没法评论。所以就是不予置评之类的废话。”但他没有,这家伙在没有直接说出所有这些事情都显而易见的情况下,给出了有史以来最大的暗示。

The last point I want to make is there's a million different ways that Musk could have answered this question, including with a bunch of legal leaves saying, "Well, if something like this were to occur, then I wouldn't actually be able to comment.

I'm not therefore no comment kind of shit." But no, the guy's given the biggest [ __ ] hint of all time without directly saying all these things are obvious.

在下方评论区告诉我,谁会在理论和原则上赞成SpaceX与Tesla的合并。我新的20年Tesla和SpaceX估值模型现已在Patreon上线,面向投资者级别及以上的支持者开放。

Let me know in the comments below who would approve in theory and principle the merger of SpaceX and Tesla. My new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is now also live on Patreon to supporters at the investor level and above.

观察点

Tesla-SpaceX 合并的正式提案
提案被宣布
近期公司公告
支持“不可避免”的论点;若未出现则削弱该论点
股东就合并进行投票
以高投票率通过
提案之后委托书声明/股东大会结果
确认合并完成;若失败则表明股东缺乏理解或支持

这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断

Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 13 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-15本条
对,说得好。在这么多层面上都有这样的合作,你可以想象,当这么多领域存在如此紧密的合作时,人们可能会采取什么行动。
2026-09-14看涨
今天我们请到了Arc Invest的人,来聊聊特斯拉的Cybercap,在他们那场史诗级的发布活动之后。
原话 00:00 ›
看完整历史 ›
美股听风