看空TSLA；基本面疲弱（自由现金流为负、利润率下降），且受竞争影响长期可持续盈利可能性不大，尽管股价已经上涨。
逐段跳播
特斯拉还是那个特斯拉，这一点没什么可补充的，不过我们也会讨论它。
Tesla remains Tesla nothing to add on that one but we'll discuss that too.
我们马上从所有汽车股中市值最大的那一个开始，当然就是特斯拉。我长期以来一直看空特斯拉，但股价就是一直涨。没有什么能拦住埃隆·马斯克。
Let's start immediately with the largest market capitalization car stock of them all, which is of course Tesla. Now, I have been a bear on Tesla for ages now, but the stock just keeps going up. Nothing can stop Elon Musk.
除此之外，特斯拉终于有了一个不错的季度，营收在增长，但毛利率下降，意味着价格相对成本更低了，营业利润率下降，EBITDA下降，除了销售额之外一切都在下降，自由现金流也转为负值，所以我看空特斯拉基本面是完全正确的，这一点已经实质兑现。
Apart from that finally a good quarter for Tesla growing but gross margin down which means prices are lower compared to the costs operating margin down ebitita down everything apart from sales is down and free cash flow turned negative so I was completely right on being negative on Tesla's fundamentals that has material realized.
所以，这一点我说对了。股价上我说错了，但你永远没法做空一个信仰。目前，Model 3和Y的生产仍在进行，而且在增长。最重要的是，cyber cap，robot taxes即将到来，因为那将接管市场。
So, I was right on that. I was wrong on the stock price, but you can never go short a cult. Now, we still have Model 3 and Y production that's going on, that's growing. And the most important thing, the cyber cap, the robot taxes are coming as that takes over the market.
Optimus也还在建设中，总是这些承诺。汽车业务当初也是一样。它带来了长期可持续的利润吗？没有。这个会带来长期可持续的利润吗？不会。
Optimus also in construction always these promises. The same was there for automotive. Did it deliver long-term durable profits? No. Will this deliver long-term durable profits? No.
但只要马斯克能继续维持这套把戏，继续用SpaceX、特斯拉等不断挖出各种承诺的叙事，特斯拉就会跑赢其他一切。Robbo taxes即将到来，市场很吃这一套。前景是更多增长，特斯拉生态系统的垂直整合。
市盈率是339，疯狂的市盈率，但它是建立在对这个生态系统的未来承诺之上，在这个生态系统里我们有robo taxes、车辆、充电网络，一切都会像特斯拉想要的那样。
But as long Elon can keep the charade and the narrative of the promises mining on wherever with SpaceX, Tesla will beat everything else. Robbo taxes are coming and the market loves it. outlook more growth vertical integration in the Tesla ecosystem.
The P ratio is 339 crazy P ratio but it's on future promises on this ecosystem where we have robo taxes vehicles charging networks everything will be like Tesla wants it.
如果robo taxes真的奏效，那意味着汽车会更少，也就是说这些汽车随时间带来的回报实际上会是零。robo taxes也一样，但特斯拉的事你永远说不准。
If the robo taxes actually work, there will mean less cars, which means return on the cars actually over the time will be zero. Same for robo taxes, but you never know with Tesla.
我仍然看空。我在基本面上说对了。如果他们能做出长期可持续的利润，我会感到意外，因为他们身处竞争极其激烈的行业。
I'm still bearish. I was right on the fundamentals. It would surprise me if they ever make long-term sustainable profits because they are in highly competitive industries.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。