买入 TSLA 以布局人形机器人领域。
逐段跳播
我们会谈谈SpaceX与Tesla合并后会发生什么，并看看这件事发生的概率。
We'll talk about what happens to SpaceX and Tesla when the merger happens and look at the odds of that.
如果Tesla与SpaceX合并，我的Tesla SL头寸、我的LEAP会怎么样？
in the event of a Tesla SpaceX merger, what happens to my Tesla SL positions, my leaps?
所以你可以继续交易Tesla，但如果是换股交易，你的LEAP或合成多头会像通常那样被调整，所以如果比例是比如2:1，你的LEAP会按某个比例调整，所以你的LEAP本身不变，但新公司X的实际内在价值确实会变，所以你不会，你会损失价值。
so you can continue trading Tesla but if there is a stock deal your LEAP or synthetic longs get adjusted just like they would so if the ratio is say 2:1 you get a certain ratio onto your LEAP so your LEAP doesn't change but the actual intrinsic value of the new company X does change so you don't you lose value
我经历过很多次SLS和LEAP在收购中的情况，最后你就是拿到新的母舰，不管那是什么。如果假设SpaceX说我们要给每位Tesla股东价值500美元，这相当于SpaceX股票对应的市值。
就这样。这就是你拿到的。他们也会据此对LEAP进行比例调整。
I have had many SLS and leaps through acquisitions where you just end up getting the new mothership whatever that may be if hypothetically SpaceX says we're going to give each Tesla shareholder $500 worth of value which equates to a market cap of SpaceX shares.
That's it. That's what you get. And they ratio the LEAP according to that, too.
如果是全现金交易，你为LEAP支付的时间价值就归零了。所以，举例来说，如果你只是买一个LEAP，我喜欢一半时间价值、一半内在价值。如果是全现金交易，那部分时间价值就消失了。你拿到的也只是它的内在价值。
如果你处于价内，你剩下的就是那笔现金作为内在价值。
If it is an all cash deal, the time premium you paid for the LEAP dies. So, for example, if you're just buying a LEAP, I like to have half time value, half intrinsic value. If it's an all cash deal, that time value disappears.
You just get intrinsic value for it as well. uh you're left with that cash as intrinsic if you're in the money.
另一个危险是，如果你处于价外，你的LEAP可能归零，即使日历上还有好几年才到期。
The other danger is if you're out of the money, your leaps can go to zero even with years left on the calendar.
永远不要买价外LEAP，除非它当然是极度便宜。我们会谈到其中一次你确实这么做的时机，那时一只股票可能跌到比如106，你想让每一块钱发挥最大作用，你可能会买140的行权价，因为你知道这只股票会回到300到400。
never buy out of the money leaps, unless of course it's an extreme bargain. We'll talk about one of those times where you actually do that where a stock could fall to say 106 and you want to make your dollar stretch as far as possible and you might buy the 140s because you know the stock's going back to 300 to 400.
请不要做那种疯狂蠢事，比如社区里有人说我在看SpaceX 500的LEAP。我当时就想，哥们，得了吧。股票才交易在140左右，你却在看500的。那简直就是火星级别的价外。别做。永远要有内在价值。
please don't do crazy crap like buy somebody in the community said I'm looking at the um SpaceX $500 leaves. I was like, "Dude, come on. Stocks trading at like 140 and you're looking at the 500s.
That is like literally Mars level out of the money. Don't do it. Always have intrinsic value."
就像，天哪，Tesla一直是死钱之类的。差不多就在大概两年或两年半前，我买了这些LEAP，140的行权价、2026年12月18日到期。我觉得把这个翻出来挺好，因为那个到期日还有89天就到了。
我能以每股140美元买入Tesla，而到圣诞节时它可能交易在接近450美元。这很好。但神奇之处在于，我是在这只股票被打压到接近106时买的这些。现在过了这几年，它们快要到期了。
所以如果我只是买股票，按今天的价格算，我今天能赚到本金的2.1倍。这个LEAP花了16美元。明白吗？而那是14倍的回报。而我做的这个SL，回报率高得都不好意思提。
It's like, "Oh my god, Tesla's been dead money for whatever." like literally I don't know a little two or two and a half years ago I bought these leaps the 140 calls expiring December 18th 2026.
I thought it was nice to pull this one up because that expiration is coming in 89 days. I get to buy Tesla for $140 a share and it'll probably be trading close to $450 by Christmas.
That's good. But the magic is I bought these when the stock was beaten down near 106. And now after these couple of years, they're about to expire. So if I just bought the stock, I'd make a 2.1x of my money today from where the price is today.
This LEAP cost 16 bucks. Okay? And that's a 14x return. And this SL I did is too embarrassing to mention the return on that.
当它产生巨大回报时，或者即使它没有产生巨大回报，比如Tesla在过去两三年里从106涨到500然后又跌回来，但它是会涨回来的，这就是这些LEAP的价值所在。
when it generates big returns or even if it doesn't generate huge returns like Tesla over the last two or three years you know went from 106 to 500 and then back down again but it is going to come back up and that's the value of these leaps
我在ALAB、Marvel、AMD、Micron、Broadcom、Palunteer、Skhinx、Bol、IBIT、Tesla、SpaceX上反反复复、一遍又一遍地这么做过。
I've done this with ALAB Marvel AMD Micron Broadcom Palunteer Skhinx Bol IBIT Tesla SpaceX over over and over and over and over again.
如果你想玩人形机器人，就买Tesla。就这么简单。别想太多。不难。我去年确实在475卖了一些Tesla，但又在420买回来太早了。
If you want to play humanoids, buy Tesla. It's that simple. Don't overthink it. Not hard. I did sell some Tesla last year at 475 but got back in too early at 420.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
InvestAnswers 在这只股票上共 15 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。