基于对SpaceX合并潜在价值的预期以及能源板块的稳定增长，继续持有TSLA。

When will unsupervised FSD and robotaxis become truly large fleets ? What is a realistic timeframe for this? My strong prediction is that Tesla Cybercab will be widely available in most major cities in the United States within 2 to 3 years from now.

That does n't mean it ca n't happen sooner, but I would be surprised if it took longer. Again, two to three years from now, Tesla Cybercabs will be available in all major cities in the United States, at least in most of the top 100 cities by population, enough to provide a viable service in every city.

Undoubtedly, small- scale journeys will begin in many places outside the United States.

For example, as I record this, the Tesla Cybercab will soon be touring Australia. Why would Tesla send CyberCabs to Australia unless there was an imminent launch there?

Although their main purpose is to get people into showrooms and sell Model 3 or Y, it is also very possible that they want to familiarize and make people in other countries aware of this technology and start operations.

The most important thing about Cybertruck scaling and subsequent unsupervised FSD is that don't expect unsupervised FSD to be rolled out directly in any area without Tesla robotaxis.

The point to understand is that Tesla has no competitors in this field.

Once they start operating on a large scale, the hardware costs, the ability to build large numbers of dedicated robotaxis, and the much lower cost per mile to operate their fleet that no other company can match— all of these factors combined make it game over.

Whether it takes 6, 9, 12, 24, 36 months or 5 years , it is very clear what the situation will be when Tesla starts operating on a large scale.

There is no one to compete with them in terms of cost. The only hope for companies trying to compete with Tesla is to give up on the idea of taking a big share of the big market and compete in a very small niche.

Convince your customers to pay triple the price per mile for your service for a specific reason. I do n't know what that will be, but Tesla will offer luxury services at an affordable price that no other company can offer.

Next question, should I sell Tesla stock to buy SpaceX stock , or should I keep both? Despite all this, I think the chances of the two companies merging are very strong, at least there is a possibility of an offer coming , which means there will be some consequences for selling Tesla stock to buy SpaceX.

There will also be some consequences to holding Tesla stock and not buying SpaceX, which you can probably figure out for yourself. Personally , I have not sold a single share of Tesla to date. There are no plans to start yet.

Now, if everything could be fixed with the wave of a magic wand, I would probably own 3/4 of SpaceX and 1/4 of Tesla.

But, I am not willing to sell Tesla stock, pay capital gains taxes, and reinvest that money, especially since I believe the two companies are very likely to merge. That does n't mean that those selling Tesla stock to buy SpaceX are making the wrong decision. I completely understand this argument.

Another important thing is that I have enough Tesla shares , I have a good position in Tesla. So, I'm happy to hold Tesla shares and am slowly building my position in SpaceX, which is currently about 6% of my portfolio, and Tesla is about 94% , although I'd like it to be 75% SpaceX.

Coming to the next question, should Tesla and SpaceX merge, if so, when, and under what structure and terms?

In my opinion, yes , they should merge. The scope for their coordination is so clear that it goes without saying. I'm almost certain it will be proposed to investors.

The only uncertainty is whether enough Tesla investors will understand the value of the merger and vote in favor of it to allow it to be approved. Now, if you are a shareholder of Tesla or SpaceX or are interested, try to properly evaluate both companies in the long term.

Calculate their present value, find its present value today, and determine a fair ratio. If you want, you can check out my 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model.

It has a separate sheet that deals with potential mergers and fair ratios based on model assumptions. The bottom line is that, judging by the probability, SpaceX seems more likely to become valuable than Tesla.

This does not mean that the opposite is impossible.

For Tesla optimists, its potential could be endless. But to me , SpaceX is the more valuable company today because of its long-term revenue and profit growth potential.

This means that SpaceX's share should be more than Tesla's in a fair proportion. However, if a merger is proposed, you will want to pay Tesla shareholders an additional premium , so that the matter can come closer to 50/50.

If a merger were proposed at a ratio of approximately 50/50, in my opinion it would be one of the craziest deals ever proposed to the shareholders of any company.

This would be so profitable for Tesla shareholders that it would be foolish for them not to support it. Tesla's value in a potential merger should be much higher than a 50/50 ratio.

I suspect that 100% of the people who make the comment that no, Tesla should be worth much more than SpaceX have never built a long-term model of SpaceX. I think they would have understood that the chances of SpaceX vastly outperforming Tesla are extremely high.

The next most popular question is almost the same as the previous one, which is related to the Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Here is an example question, a user says he does n't want to pay taxes by selling Tesla shares, but does n't want to pay taxes again by buying SpaceX. Yes, before moving on to the next question, a painful thing is, imagine you sold a lot of Tesla stock and paid your capital gains tax.

So, you will probably lose at least a quarter of your income , maybe more depending on your location. Or you are one of the lucky ones, maybe you do n't have to pay capital gains tax, but it applies to most people in the world.

Then you bought SpaceX stock, and if the two companies merge, you put yourself in danger.

Currently, Tesla is the only company making a profit by selling electric cars on a large scale.

So, Tesla is at the top in terms of the amount of money earned by selling cars. They have no hope of competing with Tesla and are unlikely to match the prices at which Chinese EVs are available.

But from a business perspective, there is no one who can match the value and profits Tesla offers.

And Chinese EV manufacturers are actually quite smart. They don't want to compete with Tesla. Next question, Cybertruck, was Bull Case wrong about this and what is your opinion on ownership?

yes, my bull case on the Cybertruck was wrong and I'm telling you why. Tesla couldn't reduce costs as much as they had hoped. They couldn't even come close to the initial price offered.

Now, there's a big difference between the inflation-adjusted dollar of 2019 and the dollar of 2026, but they still haven't gotten close enough, and that's the big problem. If it is not affordable enough, if it is not within the reach of the common people, then it can never be a mass market product.

This is an example of why the Model Y is selling so well. If Tesla could have priced the Cybertruck closer to the entry-level Model Y, which they initially aimed for, the situation would have been completely different.

But, when it comes to doing something completely new and different , something that has never been done before , if you can't reduce costs and the product is n't affordable enough, it wo n't sell well.

It's important to remember that at the time, Elon Musk and Tesla said, "Look, this product might fail. It might not sell. People might not be interested."

The main problem was, they couldn't reach the price point needed for the mass market.

Next question, do you still believe that Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world? The answer is, no. Maybe, but when it comes to possibilities, I would name SpaceX.

Of course, when Tesla is merged with SpaceX , theoretically , what will happen then ? Technically , both Tesla and SpaceX would be the largest companies in the world, if they grow even close to what I think in the long term.

Next question, question number nine, what is your opinion on the Tesla Energy Megapack Powerwall and solar?

The solar business, in my opinion, will grow very quickly , but it will not be as financially profitable. The electricity business, especially megapacks and possibly megapods (although we're not going that far), is a huge money- making machine for decades to come.

Currently, a large amount of electricity is being generated in the world and collected through solar energy. But it is being wasted due to the inability to store it in large batteries.

The megapack projects we see around the world can each cost hundreds of millions or even trillions of dollars. They pay for themselves so quickly that choosing them is an easy business decision.

I expect very consistent and stable growth in Tesla's energy business over the long term , especially in their large grid- scale batteries.

This may not be the most attractive aspect of Tesla's business , but it is certainly one of the most consistent, reliable, and profitable for decades to come. This is much more predictable than the exact timing of the spread of autonomous technology.

This is much clearer than how many cars buyers will buy at a particular price or in different shapes. Tesla Energy Megapacks are essentially money- making machines.