说话者持有Tesla多头仓位，认为该股被低估，理由是robotaxi规模化、人形机器人制造及自动驾驶性能方面的进展。
逐段跳播
Tesla 其实并不知道自己在做什么。哦，他们会比 Elon 做得更好。有这样一种情况：这些人靠谈论 Tesla，或者也许谈论 SpaceX 而获得一些名气，但通常都是关于 Tesla 的。
Tesla doesn't really know what they're doing. Oh, they're going to do this better than Elon. there's this thing where these uh people rise to some fame by talking about Tesla or maybe talking about SpaceX, but usually it's about Tesla.
唯一一家人形机器人机器人公司他们不投资的就是 Tesla。所以他们投资的是其他这些做人形机器人的公司。也许是 Golly 加一个 terra。在我看来，Golly 从来没有真正离 Tesla 太远。
但他们会从某个与 Tesla 竞争的人那里拿到赞助。他们会得到，你知道，某件事发生了，然后他们就开始贬低 Elon，你在这里就看到了。
the one humanoid robot robotics company they don't invest in is Tesla. So they're investing in these other humanoid robotics companies. Maybe it's golly with a terra. Golly never really went too far in my opinion away from Tesla.
But um they'll get a sponsorship from somebody that's competing with Tesla. They'll get, you know, something happens and then they start crapping on Elon and you have it here.
Scott 基本上是在说：“哦，Figure 做得比 Tesla 好。Figure 做得比 Tesla 好。”你知道，Optimus 并没有真正在做它应该做的事。你就开始听到这些批评了。
Scott is, you know, basically saying, "Oh, Figure is doing this better than than Tesla. Figure is doing this better than Tesla." You know, Optimus isn't really doing what it's supposed to be doing. you just start to get the criticism
第一，闭嘴。当你不了解情况的时候，不要贬低 Tesla。
Number one, shut up. Don't don't don't rag on Tesla when you don't want when you don't really know what's going on.
还有，哦，这个叫 Peter Rollinsson 的人，你知道，他比 Elon 更懂车。嗯哼。嗯哼。
And like, oh, this guy Peter Rollinsson, he's, you know, he knows more about cars than Elon. Uh-huh. Uh-huh.
你批评 Figure，就像人们在 2017 年批评 Elon 一样。就像在说：“是啊，2017 年时，特斯拉已经交付了 28 万辆车。”因为 Elon 不拉黑他的批评者？
Well, you're criticizing Figure just like people criticized Elon back in 2017. It's like, "Yeah, in 2017, Tesla had already delivered 280,000 cars. because Elon doesn't block his critics?
你要么把 Figure 比作 2017 年的特斯拉，要么把 Brett Adcock 比作 2017 年的 Elon。
you're going to compare Figure to Tesla in 2017 or you're going to compare Brett Adcock to Elon in 2017.
我们从 FSD、从特斯拉的 FSD 中知道的是，你需要极其庞大的数据量，覆盖极其广泛的各种情境，这样才能训练你的现实世界模型去应对任何出现的情况，对吧？去应对，比如有人做了个手势，你得知道这个手势是什么意思。
有人对车说了句话。就像 Elon 说的，一个 UFO 降落在高速公路中间，你得知道要停下来，对吧？这不在训练数据里，但你必须对这个世界有足够多的经历，才能做出判断。
What we know from FSD, from Tesla's FSD, is you need a really, really large amount of data across a really, really wide array of situations so that you can train your real world model to handle whatever comes up, right?
To to handle, you know, somebody makes a hand gesture. You got to know what the hand gesture means. Somebody says something to the car. You know, as Elon says, a UFO lands in the middle of the highway, you got to know to stop, right?
it's not in the training data, but you've got you you have to have experienced enough of the world to make judgment calls.
有一件事让我很困扰，就是当特斯拉的意见领袖开始贬低 Elon、开始贬低特斯拉的时候。这让我有点困扰。你因为谈论 Elon 在做的事情而获得了一定程度的知名度，获得了一定程度的追随者，现在你却反过来攻击 Elon，然后你还在误导投资者去投资一个根本没有机会成功的东西。
One thing that bothers me is when when Tesla influencers start crapping on Elon and start crapping on Tesla. Okay, that bothers me a little. You you got a degree of fame. You got a degree of a following from talking about things that Elon's doing and now you're turning on Elon and then you're you're fooling investors into investing into something that has no chance to succeed.
我投资了特斯拉、SpaceX、特斯拉、英伟达、SpaceX 和谷歌。这是我的四项主要投资。
I'm invested in Tesla, SpaceX, Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX, and Google. Those are my four main investments.
特斯拉 Semi 刚刚出现在，我不知道，大概 24 小时前的 Top Gear 上。所以，特斯拉 Semi，非常正面的视频，关于特斯拉 Semi 非常正面的消息。去看看那个吧。
Tesla Semi just appeared uh I don't know 24 hours ago or so on Top Gear. Um, so Tesla Semi, very positive video, very positive news about Tesla Semi. So check that out.
Edward Nethermier 是长期看空特斯拉的人。他多年来一直反 Elon、反特斯拉。2019 年写了一本书，预测特斯拉会失败。他后来承认自己可能有点错了。
Edward Nethermier is a longtime Tesla bear. He's been, you know, anti- Elon, anti-Tesla for years. Wrote a book in 2019 predicting that Tesla was going to fail. He later admitted he might have been a little bit wrong.
George Noble 一直批评 Elon，一直批评特斯拉。
George Noble's, you know, always been critical of Elon, always been critical of Tesla.
特斯拉并不是 YouTuber 们说的那样，四五年的增长、股价等等。我认为 robotaxi 的世界至少需要 10 年。我本来不打算谈 robotaxi，但我想既然这样，我们不如在继续之前先聊聊这个。
Tesla was not what YouTubers said four to five years of outgrowth share price etc I think robo taxi world takes at least 10 years I wasn't getting into robo taxi but this is I guess we might as well talk about this before we go on.
CyberCAB 正在扩张。他们在得克萨斯州休斯顿部署了大约 100 辆 cyber cab。他们在得克萨斯州休斯顿让 Model Y 进行无监督运行。他们可能还会在那里开始运行 Cyber Cab。
CyberCAB is scaling. They've staged like a 100 cyber cabs in Houston, Texas. They're running Model Y's unsupervised in Houston, Texas. They're probably going to start running Cyber Cabs there.
按我的计算，他们在增长。如果他们每周增长 17%，这实际上就是他们告诉我们的，那么明年第一季度，他们每周将达到 1000 万英里。而那时它就会开始体现在财务数据上。
They're growing my math. If they're growing 17% a week, which is what they effectively told us, then first quarter next year, they're going to be at 10 million miles a week. And that's when it starts showing up in the financials.
然后还有 Optimus，他们现在正在为每年 100 万台机器人建生产线，这需要时间才能扩大规模。而且他们已经在得克萨斯州为每年 1000 万台机器人建造工厂外壳了。你可以说这需要 10 年。我不会押注于此。
So um and then Optimus, they're building the the line right now for a million bots a year, which will take time to scale up. and they're already building the factory shell for 10 million bots a year in Texas.
You know, you can say it's going to be 10 years. I would I wouldn't bet on that.
坐在特斯拉里有多安全让我感觉多好。他用 FSD、用特斯拉汽车的碰撞保护，救了多少人的命。
how good I feel being safe in a Tesla. Um how safe how many people's lives he's saved with FSD with, you know, the crash protection in Tesla cars.
Ice Wendigo 说 FSD 目前还没准备好开到任何地方。现有区域之外有太多边缘情况，但随着 FSD 变得更好，区域会扩大。我没法知道。我不开 FSD。我能告诉你的是，对于在硬件 4 上开最新版本 FSD 的人来说，我看到的是什么。
这就像你是在说有撞车，还是在说它比如错过了一个转弯？对吧。就像我昨天错过了一个转弯。我是不是错过了一个转弯？我想我今天错过了一个转弯。就像人类会错过转弯一样。人类，哦，是特斯拉导航没能告诉我们要并线向左，好让我们能右转。
Ice Wendigo says FSD is not currently ready to drive anywhere. There's too many edge cases outside existing regions, but the region will expand as FSD gets better. You know, I can't know.
I'm not driving FSD. I can tell you what I'm seeing is for people who are driving FSD on hardware 4 the latest versions. It's like are you saying that there's crashes or are you saying it like misses a turn?
Right. It's like I missed a turn yesterday. Didn't I miss a turn? I think I missed a turn today. Like humans miss turns. Humans Oh, it was it was Tesla Nav that that failed to tell us to to merge to go left so we could turn right.
Carolina 说：“我不再听到任何关于特斯拉 SpaceX 合并的消息了。你呢？”Elon 在 all-in 播客上被问到这件事，他说：“天哪，你知道，这两家公司确实有很多共同点。”
看起来我们在做很多相同的事情。这很有意思，但他没有说正在发生什么。所以，这引发了很多猜测。
Carolina says, "I don't hear anything about Tesla SpaceX merger anymore uh any longer. Do you?" Elon was asked about it in the all-in pod and he said, "Geez, you know, the two companies do have a lot in common."
Seems like we're doing a lot of the same things. It's interesting, but he didn't say what's happening. So, that drove a lot of speculation.
Ice wind 说导航 99% 的时候是好的，但 1% 的时候差到糟糕。好吧。但糟糕的导航不是撞车。而且，你说它 99.99% 的时候能避免撞车，但不，如果你开 1 万英里没有撞车，那就是 100% 的时候。
Ice wind navigation is good 99% of the time, but bad to horrible 1% of the time. Okay. But bad navigation isn't a crash. Um, and you know, you say it avoids crashes 99.99% of the time, but no, if you drive 10,000 miles and you don't crash, then it's 100% of the time.
我不知道你开的是硬件 3 还是硬件 4，我不知道。我的直觉是，像你这样的个人会说，我有过这样的经历，而现实是特斯拉在看的是 100 万辆、100 万辆以上的车，对吧？对。而他们现在真正专注的是 robotaxi，它们使用的是比你车里的软件和我车里的软件更先进的版本。
他们用的是 model 版本 15。它还没有完全落地，但他们已经在用版本 15 了。你用的是版本 14。所以他们能比你更好地看到撞车表现，因为你的样本非常窄。
I don't know whether you're driving uh hardware 3, hardware 4, I don't know. my gut is that individuals like you will say, I had this experience and the reality is that Tesla is looking at million a million plus cars, right?
Right. And the what they're really focused on right now is the robo taxis which are using a more advanced version of the software than we than you have in your car and I have in my car whatever.
Um they're using they're on model uh version 15. It's not fully implemented yet but they're on on version 15. You're on version 14. So they're able to see crash performance better than you are because you have a very narrow sample.
硬件 4 上的 14.3.8。关于版本 15 是真的。谢谢你，Ice Wendigo。是啊，我也说不清。我觉得特斯拉身上正在发生很多好事，有很多好事正在发生。我想强调一点，我觉得特斯拉被低估了。
14.3.8 eight on hardware 4. True about version 15. Thank you, Ice Wendigo. Yeah, like I don't know. Um I I think that there's so many good things happening with Tesla. There's so many good things happening.
I want to stress this thing that I feel like like I I think Tesla's undervalued.
我对 FSD 最大的不满就是超速。我希望他们能设一个速度上限。直接调到 chill 模式就行了，你会没事的。它在 chill 模式下会超速吗？你不想让它开快，就调到 chill。你会晚 5 分钟到，有什么大不了的？
my biggest complaint on FSD is the speeding. I wish they would give a speed cap. Just set it on chill. You'll be fine. Does it speed on chill? You don't want it to go fast, put it on chill.
You'll get there 5 minutes later. What's the big deal?
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