台积电的领先制造需求受到英伟达强劲指引以及台积电自身强劲财报和指引的支撑,表明前景乐观。
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接下来是台积电。这个联系甚至更简单。英伟达需要有人来制造这些先进芯片。台积电是英伟达最关键的制造合作伙伴之一。如果英伟达提高对Blackwell和Rubin的预期,那可能意味着更多的先进晶圆、更先进的封装、更多的产能需求,以及对台积电的更多需求。因此,英伟达强劲的指引是支持台积电领先制造前景的另一个数据点。我们已经听到了他们的消息。他们公布了强劲的收益和强劲的指引,为强劲的需求奠定了基础。
Next on the list is going to be Taiwan Semi. This connection is even easier. Nvidia needs someone to manufacture these advanced chips. Taiwan Semi is one of Nvidia's most critical manufacturing partners. If Nvidia raises expectations for Blackwell and Rubin, that potentially means more advanced wafers, more advanced packaging, more capacity requirements, more demand for Taiwan Semi. So, strong Nvidia guidance is another data point supporting Taiwan Semi's leading-edge manufacturing outlook. And we already heard from them. And they reported strong earnings and strong guidance, setting up the stage for strong demand.
支持台积电领先制造前景。我们已经听到了他们的消息。他们公布了强劲的收益和强劲的指引,为强劲的需求奠定了基础。
supporting Taiwan Semi's leading-edge manufacturing outlook. And we already heard from them. And they reported strong earnings and strong guidance, setting up the stage for strong demand.
那么,周三晚上财报公布后,实际上可能有两种情况。第一种情况,英伟达大获成功。营收超预期,每股收益超预期,毛利率保持,第三季度指引远高于1040亿美元。Rubin按计划进行,黄仁勋表示需求继续超过供应。如果我们看到这种组合,我认为你可能会看到AI、英伟达、AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光,甚至可能AI基础设施和数据中心股票的显著反弹,因为市场得到确认,AI支出周期尚未结束。需要明确的是,这不仅是我希望看到的情况,也是我的预期。
So, with that, there's really two scenarios that could take place after the report on Wednesday night. Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply. If we get that combination, I think you could see a significant relief rally across AI, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, potentially even AI infrastructure and data center names because the market gets confirmation the AI spending cycle isn't over. And to be clear, this is the scenario I'm not only hoping for, but also it's my expectation.
所以,总而言之,英伟达将于周三公布财报,这可能是本季剩余时间中最重要的财报。我关注的是920亿美元以上的营收、每股收益2.09美元,希望更高,75%的毛利率,以及第三季度指引与约1040亿美元的对比。对传闻中的需求有何看法?是否有任何销售进入中国?最重要的是,黄仁勋关于基础设施支出的评论。因为如果英伟达告诉我们需求仍然异常强劲,那不仅会加强我对英伟达的论点,还会加强我对AI投资组合中大部分公司的信心,包括AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光,以及可能更多公司。但如果我们开始看到裂痕,我不会仅仅因为我看好AI就忽视它们。这就是关注财报的全部意义。我们的论点应该跟随基本面,而不是反过来。周三晚上,我们将获得全年中最重要的基本面更新之一。
So, in conclusion, Nvidia reports Wednesday, and this is probably the most important earnings report remaining in the season. I'm watching 92 plus billion in revenue, $2.09 EPS, hoping for higher, 75% gross margins, and Q3 guidance versus roughly $104 billion. What's the take on rumor demand? Is there any sales heading into China? And most importantly, Jensen Huang's commentary around infrastructure spending. Because if Nvidia tells us demand remains extraordinary, that doesn't just strengthen my Nvidia thesis, it strengthens my conviction across much of the AI investment stack. AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and potentially many more. But if we start seeing cracks, I'm not going to ignore them simply because I'm bullish on AI. That's the entire purpose of following earnings. Our thesis should follow the fundamentals, not the other way around. And Wednesday night, we're going to get one of the most important updates of those fundamentals we receive all year.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。