台积电相对于同业略有买入优势；公允价值620美元意味着未来12-18个月约有49%的上行空间。
逐段跳播
博通和台积电因人工智能需求增长，销售额和利润都在大幅增长。但这两家半导体公司中，哪一只股票目前更值得买入？你可以看到台积电，其2023年的销售额约为750亿美元，随后在最近12个月内几乎翻倍至1430亿美元。
Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are seeing sales and profits boom as a result of the increasing demand for artificial intelligence. But which one of these two semiconductor companies is the better stock to buy right now? You can see Taiwan Semiconductor there it operated on sales figure of around $75 billion in 2023 before its sales nearly doubled to $143 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
无论如何，从长期来看，这些公司的销售额自2017年以来一直在激增。台积电在2017年的营收约为300亿美元。此后这些销售额增长了近5倍。
Regardless, looking back longer term, these companies have seen their sales proliferate since 2017 Taiwan Semiconductor generated revenue of around $30 billion in 2017. Those sales have increased by nearly 5x.
台积电未来几年的制造产能和产能利用率看起来已经售罄。也许更令人印象深刻的是，虽然这些公司的收入激增，但它们的利润率也在扩大。这表明对其产品和服务的需求是强劲且有机的。销售增长并非由折扣、促销或激励措施导致，而是有机需求激增的结果。
TSM looks to be sold out for the next couple of years in terms of their manufacturing capacity and capacity utilization. Perhaps more impressively, while these companies have seen their revenues proliferate, their profit margins expanded. And that's an indication that demand for their products and services are robust and organic. It's not a result of discounts or promotions or incentives that's causing the sales increase. It's a result of organic demand proliferating.
台积电的利润率已从2017年的40%上升至最近12个月期间的56%。然而，利润率的预测正在逆转。台积电管理层告知投资者，由于其地理多元化战略，其利润率可能保持平稳或下降。该公司正在台湾以外地区扩建制造设施，而这些设施的运营成本高于台湾境内，在台湾公司能获得慷慨的政府激励以降低运营成本。
Taiwan Semiconductor has seen its margins rise from 40% in 2017 up to 56% in the most recent trailing 12-month period. However, the forecast for profit margins are reversing. Taiwan Semiconductor management informed investors that its profit margins are likely to remain flat or decline because of its geographic diversification strategy. It's expanding manufacturing facilities outside of Taiwan, and those facilities, the cost of operations are higher than inside of Taiwan where the company gets generous government incentives to keep their cost of operations lower.
因此，管理层已告知投资者，随着其更多生产转移到台湾以外，其利润率（至少是毛利率）可能会下降。
And so, the management team has informed investors that as more of its production shifts outside of Taiwan, its profit margins gross at least gross profit margins are likely to decrease.
无论如何，这些公司拥有出色的盈利能力和利润率，预计将保持非常非常强劲，尽管在边际上它们可能走低，但总体而言它们仍预计将保持非常非常强劲。
Regardless, these companies have excellent profitability and profit margins, which are expected to remain very, very strong even though on the margin they might move lower, overall they're still expected to remain very, very strong.
同样，这些公司拥有出色的投入资本回报率。台积电为34%，高于2017年的约20%。请记住，台积电是一家资本投入非常重的公司。每年公司必须花费数百亿美元来升级和维护其设施。今年，管理层估计资本支出约为600亿美元。
这是用于维护和升级现有设施以及增加新设施以抓住增长机会。
Similarly, these companies boast excellent returns on invested capital. 34% for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, that's up from around 20% in 2017. Remember, TSM is a very heavy capital investment company. Every year the company has to spend tens of billions of dollars upgrading and maintaining its facilities. For this year, the management team has estimated roughly $60 billion in capital expenditure. This is for maintaining and upgrading existing facilities and adding new facilities to capture the growth opportunity.
重要的是，这些公司的ROIC比率均高于其加权平均资本成本，简单来说，这意味着管理层每向公司再投资一美元都在增加股东价值。
Importantly, these ROIC ratios for each of them is greater than their weighted average cost of capital, which in simple terms means that every dollar the management team is reinvesting into the company is adding shareholder value.
说到价值和估值，这两家公司的估值非常相似。当我以远期市盈率衡量时，台积电的交易价格为19.1倍。
Speaking of value and valuation, these two are trading at very similar valuations. When I measure them on a forward price to earnings basis, Taiwan Semiconductor's trading at 19.1,
放大来看，将它们的估值与标普500指数的平均股票或全球市场的平均股票进行比较，并与它们自身的表现进行比较，对于这些收入增长超过两位数、利润率超过50%、投入资本回报率高于加权平均资本成本、处于蓬勃发展的行业且具有强大竞争优势的企业来说，这些都是有吸引力的估值，对两者都是有利的估值。
Zooming out and comparing their valuations against the average stock in the S&P 500 or the average stock in the markets worldwide and comparing it against their own performance, these are attractive valuations for businesses that are growing revenue above double digits with profit margins operating above 50% returns on invested capital above the weighted average cost of capital in an industry that's booming with strong competitive advantages these are favorable valuations for both.
因此，我还为台积电计算了一个公允价值估计，将该业务估值为每股620美元。与当前市场价格416美元相比，我计算出未来12至18个月TSM的上涨空间约为49%。
So, I also calculated a fair value estimate for Taiwan Semiconductor which valued the business at $620 a share. Compared to the current market price of 416, I calculated an upside of roughly 49% for TSM over the next 12 to 18 months.
所以，当我说这非常接近时，我并不是在开玩笑。以远期市盈率衡量，它们的估值非常相似。以贴现现金流估值模型衡量，它们的售价相对于公允价值有非常相似的折让。非常非常接近，事实上，这使我的决定变得非常困难。
这是一个艰难的选择。要决定这两者中哪一个是更好的买入股票并不容易。
So, when I said this is very close, I wasn't kidding. When measuring on a forward price-to-earnings basis, they're trading at very similar valuations. When measuring on the discounted cash flow valuation models, they're selling at very similar discounts to fair value. Very, very close and in fact, this makes my decision very difficult. It's a close call. It's not an easy decision which one of these two is the better stock to buy.
然而，如果我必须在这两只股票中做出选择，尽管这是一个非常接近的决定，但台积电略占优势，如果我今天要做选择，我会选择这家公司。
However, if I had to pick between these two stocks, which one of them would I rather buy today despite it being a very close decision, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has the slight advantage and I would go with this company if I was making the choice today.
当然，仅看这一比较，不考虑任何投资组合多元化策略、相关性和配置，台积电看起来是略好的选择。
Certainly, looking at this comparison alone without thinking about any portfolio diversification strategies and correlations and allocations, TSMC looks like the slightly better decision.
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。