台积电被低估，当前股价416美元，公允价值609美元；受AI制造主导地位驱动，预计12-18个月内有超过46%的上涨空间，抵消地缘政治成本压力。
逐段跳播
我将在本视频中展示的第一只AI股票是台积电。我计算出该股票的公允价值为每股609美元，而市场价格仅为416美元。
The first AI stock I will be showcasing in this video is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). I have calculated the fair value of this stock at $609 per share , while the market price is only $416.
因此，我计算出台积电的股票在未来12至18个月内将增长超过46%。当然，围绕这家公司最大的积极因素之一是技术创新。这超出了人工智能的范围。
Therefore, I have calculated a growth rate of more than 46% for Taiwan Semiconductor Company's stock over the next 12 to 18 months. Of course, one of the biggest positive factors surrounding this company is technological innovation. This goes beyond the scope of artificial intelligence.
人工智能当然因ChatGPT提供的大型语言模型而蓬勃发展，然后是Anthropic和谷歌的Gemini，现在有许多大型语言模型提供商，无论是开源的还是闭源的，大型的还是小型的。这些模型的各种形式广泛存在，台积电因此受益。
Artificial intelligence is certainly thriving as a result of the big language models provided by ChatGPT, then Anthropic and Google’s Gemini , and now there are many big language model providers, whether open source or closed, large or small . Various forms of these models are widespread, and Taiwan Semiconductor Company benefits from this as a result.
它是英伟达和AMD等公司的制造合作伙伴。它也是苹果等公司的制造合作伙伴。
It is the manufacturing partner for companies such as Nvidia and AMD. It is also the manufacturing partner for companies like Apple.
因此，它受益于这种能力扩展的传播，不仅适用于为大型语言模型提供计算服务的云数据中心，也适用于设备上的人工智能。智能手机、平板电脑、笔记本电脑和个人电脑等设备，以及越来越多的汽车，现在都广泛存在并融入了先进技术。
所有这些都导致对台积电服务的需求激增，而且在我看来，该公司是世界上最好的制造商，简单来说。不仅在半导体制造领域，而且在一般制造领域。我还没有遇到过比台积电在其工作领域更好的公司。
Therefore, it benefits from this spread in expanding capabilities, not only for cloud data centers that provide computing services for large language models, but also for artificial intelligence on devices. Devices such as smartphones, tablets, laptops and personal computers, and increasingly cars, are now widespread and incorporate advanced technologies built into them. All of this creates a surge in demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Company's services , and the company is, in my opinion, the best manufacturer in the world, quite simply. Not only in semiconductor manufacturing, but in manufacturing in general. I have not come across a better company in its field of work than Taiwan Semiconductor Company.
当然，围绕台积电的明显负面因素是地缘政治紧张局势。这已经导致公司运营方式发生重大战略变化。目前，最大的地缘政治紧张局势是中国与台湾之间。中国对台湾的持续威胁，以及如果中国对台湾采取行动可能产生的潜在负面后果。
但公司已经开始采取措施分散这些风险，而这已经产生了负面影响。管理层已增加在台湾以外的制造业务。他们已在美国亚利桑那州周边建立了强大的制造业务，并正在努力扩大这些设施。他们还扩展到欧洲和日本。
管理层表示，他们这样做是为了降低地缘政治风险，也因为客户要求公司这样做，即使在他们扩张的地区获得政府激励之后。管理层表示，这些地区的生产成本将高于台湾的生产成本。如果不是因为这些地缘政治紧张局势，公司本会专注于其在台湾的制造业务，扩大并改善该业务，并利用其处于一个提供强大政府支持地区的竞争优势。
但现在他们正在其主要地区之外扩张，这导致成本上升。因此，他们已经在面临这些挑战。
Of course, the obvious negative factor surrounding TSM is geopolitical tension. This has already led to major strategic changes in how the company operates. Currently, the biggest geopolitical tension is between China and Taiwan. China's ongoing threats against Taiwan and the potential negative consequences that could result if China takes action against Taiwan. But the company has already begun taking steps to diversify these risks, and this is already having a negative impact . The management team has increased manufacturing presence outside of Taiwan. They have established a strong manufacturing presence in the United States around Arizona, and they are working to expand those facilities. They also expanded into Europe and Japan. The management team stated that they are doing this to reduce geopolitical risks, and also because their clients are asking the company to do so, even after receiving incentives from the governments of the regions in which they are expanding . The management team stated that production costs in those areas would be higher than production costs in Taiwan. Had it not been for these geopolitical tensions, the company would have focused on its manufacturing presence in Taiwan, expanding and improving that presence, and taking advantage of its competitive edge in being in a region that provides it with strong government support . But now they are expanding outside their main region, and this is leading to higher costs. Therefore, they are already facing these challenges.
但尽管存在这些挑战，我认为台积电仍有巨大的上行潜力。
But despite these challenges, I see great upside potential here for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。