TSM 一年内实现 50% 回报的概率较高；仓位配置约为投资组合的 25%，以在上行信心与下行风险之间取得平衡。
逐段跳播
当我考虑现在想在像 Tasmea 这样的仓位上投入多少钱时，因为我认为 Tasmea 很有可能在未来一年产生大约 50% 的回报。
when I think about how much how much money I want to put into a position like Tasmea right now, because I think that Tasmea has a very good chance of producing like 50% returns over the next year.
所以我脑子里有一部分在想，那就尽可能多地买入吧。让这个东西占我投资组合的 40%、50%。为什么不呢，对吧？为什么不呢？我觉得我信念如此之强。我认为它会带来 50% 的回报。那为什么不干脆把它做成一个极其庞大的仓位，然后像 Tasa 的 CEO 会说的那样，大赚一笔。
So part of my brain is like, well man, I should just buy like literally as much as I possibly can. Like make this thing 40% of my portfolio, 50% of my portfolio. Why not, right?
Like why not? I feel I have so much conviction. I think it's going to produce 50% return. So why not just make it a ridiculously large position and I'll make a a shitload of money as Tasa's CEO would say.
然后另一面是，好吧，如果我错了会怎样？我会亏多少钱？所以我问自己，好吧，如果 Tasmeia 占我投资组合的 50%，而它上涨 50%，那太棒了。但是，如果 Tasmea 占我投资组合的 50%，而它下跌 50%，那我就会亏掉一大笔钱。
Then the other side is okay. Well, what happens if I'm wrong? how much money would I lose? So, I ask myself, okay, if Tasmeia is 50% of my portfolio and it goes up 50%. That's awesome.
All right. But if Tasmea is 50% of my portfolio and it goes down 50%, then I lose a significant amount of money.
尽管如果我把 Tasmania 做到 50%、并且你知道我在未来一年赚了 50%，我会感觉无比美妙，你知道，我会赚到几十万美元。但那种美好的感觉，能否压过如果这只股票下跌 50%、如果它占我投资组合的 50% 时我会有的那种感觉？答案是坚决不能。好吧，那压不过下行风险。
And even though I would feel incredible if I made Tasmania 50% and you know I made 50% over the next year, you know, I'd make hundreds of thousands of dollars. But does that good feeling outweigh the feeling that I would have if uh the stock fell 50% if it was 50% of my portfolio?
And the answer is a hard no. All right, the that would not outweigh the downside.
所以这就是为什么我没有把 TASMA 做成我投资组合中的一个大仓位，这是因为我权衡了两种可能的结果。而对我自己来说，在占我投资组合大约 25% 的情况下，我觉得这两种结果得到了恰当的权衡。
So that's why I haven't made TASMA a huge position in my portfolio and it's because I have weighed the two possible outcomes. Now for myself at around 25% of my portfolio, I feel like the two outcomes are weighted properly.
因为现在如果 Tasmania，你知道，在未来一年上涨 50%，我不会说，哦，好吧，我本该把投资组合的 50% 投进去的，因为我今天已经想过这件事了。你知道，我一年前就想过这件事。
我权衡了这个决定。我权衡了这些结果，我认定这是对我来说最好的做法。所以如果它上涨，你知道，那个结果是我已经纳入考虑的了。
because now if Tasmania, you know, goes up 50% over the next year, I'm not going to be like, "Oh, well, I should have put 50% of my portfolio in it because I've thought about that today.
You know, I thought about that a year ago. I weighed the decision. I weighed the outcomes and I decided that this is the best thing for me. So then if it goes up, you know, that outcome is what I've already factored in.
这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。