TTD被低估（公允价值31美元，当前15美元），值得买入评级，但由于竞争威胁和增长放缓，信心降至中等。
逐段跳播
The Trade Desk 宣布上个季度营收仅增长 3%，达到 7.15 亿美元。与该公司多年来实现两位数营收增长的历史相比，这是一个显著的放缓。
The Trade Desk announced revenue growth of only 3% in the last quarter, reaching $715 million. This was a significant slowdown compared to the company's multi-year history of achieving double-digit revenue growth.
此外，管理层预计情况会恶化，预测第三季度营收仅能达到 6.5 亿美元。更糟糕的是，管理团队表示，他们对未来几个季度的销售前景失去了清晰的展望，因为在我看来，客户似乎不愿与 The Trade Desk 签订协议。
Furthermore, management expects the situation to worsen, forecasting that revenues in the third quarter will only reach $650 million . To make matters worse, the management team stated that it is losing a clear vision of future sales in the coming quarters, as it seems to me that customers are hesitant to enter into agreements with "The Trade Desk".
而亚马逊或其竞争对手是导致 The Trade Desk 营收增长放缓及其投资者基础疏远的主要原因之一。
and Amazon or its competitors are one of the main reasons behind The Trade Desk's slowing revenue growth and the distancing of its investor base.
但这一切是否足以证明卖出 The Trade Desk 的股票是合理的，还是说这是一个低价买入的机会？如果我们查看涵盖过去十年的图表，可以观察到 The Trade Desk 营收增长的放缓。
如果你看这张图表中较新的部分，在这个区域，你可以看到增长趋势明显趋于平缓。
But does all this justify selling shares of "The Trade Desk" , or is it an opportunity to buy when the price is low? We can observe the slowdown in the growth of "The Trade Desk's" revenues if we look at the graph that covers the past decade. If you look at the newer part of this graph here, in this area, you can see the growth trend flattening out noticeably.
这是在该公司多年出色增长之后出现的，营收从 2017 年的约 2 亿美元上升到过去十二个月的超过 29 亿美元。
This comes after years of excellent growth for the company, with revenues rising from around $200 million in 2017 to more than $2.9 billion in the last twelve months.
The Trade Desk 在广告领域与买方合作。它帮助买方通过基于软件的方式简化购买流程，减少在此过程中投入的时间，并帮助提高广告支出的回报。
The Trade Desk works with the buyer side in the field of advertising. It helps buyers streamline the purchasing process software-based, reducing the time invested in this process and helping to improve the return on advertising spending.
她不仅仅是为了帮助买方购买最便宜的可用广告。相反，它帮助买方最大化他们在广告上花费的每一美元的效果。
She is not just looking to help buyers purchase the cheapest available ads. Rather, it helps buyers maximize the effectiveness of every dollar they spend on advertising.
这就是他们未能说服投资者的论点。这接近 15% 到 20%，而亚马逊现在以 1% 到 5% 的费用提供其广告。
This is the argument they failed to convince investors of. which is close to 15 to 20%, while Amazon now offers its ads at fees ranging from 1 to 5%.
The Trade Desk 管理团队告诉投资者：“看，这不是两个相同事物之间的公平比较。”亚马逊有大量的广告库存，所以他们可以向你收取较低的总购买费用，但他们从卖给你的库存中获利，因为那是他们自己的库存。
他们有动力出售自己的库存，所以这是较低质量的购买，但你支付较低的费用。
The Trade Desk management team told investors: "Look, this is not a fair comparison between two identical things." Amazon has a lot of advertising inventory, so they can charge you less for the total purchase, but they profit from the inventory they sell to you because it is their own inventory. They are incentivized to sell their own stock, so it is a lower-quality purchase, but you pay a lower fee.
投资者看到营收增长大幅放缓，因此他们怀疑 The Trade Desk 在这里是否有令人信服的论点。因此，自从这些事态发展开始近一年前，The Trade Desk 的股价暴跌以来，自这些事态发展宣布以来，它已经下跌了超过 80%。
Investors are watching revenue growth slow considerably, so they are skeptical that The Trade Desk has a convincing argument here. So, since these developments began almost a year ago and The Trade Desk's stock price collapsed, it has fallen by more than 80% since these developments were announced.
我认为这对 The Trade Desk 及其业务来说是一件负面的事情。我认为该公司征收 15% 至 20% 购买费用的能力将受到威胁。
I argued that this was a negative thing for "The Trade Desk" and its business. I argued that the company's ability to impose purchase fees ranging from 15 to 20% would be under threat.
情况可能并非如此；他们可能有更好的产品。他们可能更有效地代表买方工作。然而，亚马逊以低价进入将影响 The Trade Desk 征收这些费用的能力。他们可能不得不降低收费，这将减少收入，降低盈利能力，并削弱竞争优势。
That may not be the case ; they may have a better product. They may be working more effectively on behalf of the buyers. However, Amazon's entry at a low price point will affect The Trade Desk's ability to impose those fees. They may have to reduce the fees they charge, which will reduce revenue, reduce profitability, and reduce competitive advantage.
但好消息是，The Trade Desk 在 2022 年底进行的变革和重组带来了盈利能力的转折点。多年来，公司的营业利润率从 2017 年到 2023 年下降，其营业利润率从 30% 下降到负水平。
But the good news is that the changes and restructuring undertaken by The Trade Desk in late 2022 led to a turning point in profitability. For years, the company’s operating profit margin declined from 2017 to 2023, with its operating margins dropping from 30% to a negative level.
但自从重组并将业务重心转向更具盈利性的增长以来，其营业利润率已从持平或略有负增长加速至超过20%，并保持在19.6%左右的水平。
But since restructuring and shifting the business focus towards more profitable growth, their operating margins have accelerated from a flat or slightly negative level to over 20%, and remain around those levels at 19.6%.
其营业利润率并未像营收增长率那样急剧下降，但如果他们不加快营收增长，其利润率遭遇同样急剧下滑的命运，我也不会感到意外。
Their operating margins have not declined as dramatically as their revenue growth rate, although I wouldn't be surprised if their profit margins met a similar fate of sharp decline if they didn't accelerate revenue growth.
其投入资本回报率也有类似的情况。多年来一直在下降，但自那些重组努力以来，其投入资本回报率已提高至13.7%。而最近，鉴于这些最新进展，管理层已更加专注于其核心能力。它正在推动更聚焦的投资，并真正收窄其视野。
A similar story applies to their returns on invested capital. It had been declining for years, but since those restructuring efforts, its return on invested capital has improved to 13.7%, and recently, in light of these recent developments, management has become more focused on its core capabilities. It is pushing for more focused investments and is really narrowing its vision .
我们都会这样做，不是吗？每当我们面临困难和压力大的情况时，我们会排除紧急需求范围之外的任何事物，并避开那些不确定的努力。我们专注于核心，专注于保护我们的竞争优势，专注于在核心品类中取得成果。
我们不专注于扩展到新品类，也不专注于做那些可能成功也可能失败的事情。我们真正专注于保护核心，而管理层最近一直在做这件事，强化对核心的关注，并专注于其为客户提供的价值，这在短期内应该有助于减少浪费并抵御这一新威胁。
That's something we all do, isn't it? Whenever we face a difficult and stressful situation, we exclude anything outside the scope of our urgent needs, and we avoid those uncertain endeavors. We focus on the core, we focus on protecting our competitive advantages, and we focus on achieving results in our core categories. We are not focused on expanding into new categories, nor are we focused on doing things that may or may not succeed. We are really focused on protecting the core, and that is what management has been doing here lately, reinforcing the focus on the core, and focusing on the value it offers to its customers, and that should be positive in the near term in reducing waste and defending itself against this new threat.
因此，除了营收增长的显著放缓之外，管理层让我略感失望的一点是股票回购有限。不是吗？从估值来看，The Trade Desk目前的远期市盈率仅为14.6。这是该股有史以来交易的最低价格。
So, in addition to the significant slowdown in revenue growth, one thing I was slightly disappointed with from management was the limited share buybacks. Isn't that so? Looking at the valuation, The Trade Desk is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of just 14.6. This is the lowest price at which the stock has ever traded.
在最近结束的季度中，管理团队回购了价值7800万美元的股票。相比之下，自由现金流为1.36亿美元，资产负债表上的无债务现金为15亿美元。
In the last quarter ended, the management team repurchased $78 million worth of shares. This compares to $136 million in free cash flow and $1.5 billion in debt-free cash on the balance sheet.
因此，他们有强大的财务能力来回购股票。我希望看到，在当前季度，当他们公布即将到来的业绩时，股票回购显著增加，以向投资者展示他们应对所面临威胁的能力的信心。
Therefore, they have a large financial capacity to repurchase shares. I would like to see, in this current quarter, when they announce their upcoming results, a significant increase in share buybacks to demonstrate their confidence to investors in their ability to cope with the threats they face.
如果你真的对自己抵御这一威胁的能力有信心，你就会在这些相对便宜的水平（历史上便宜的水平）回购大量股票。
If you are truly confident in your ability to withstand this threat, you will repurchase a lot of stocks here at these relatively cheap levels, which are historically cheap levels.
但如果他们采取更谨慎的做法，我也不会感到意外，因为当你面对像亚马逊这样的巨头时，你怎么能如此自信呢？想象一下，你在一个竞争激烈的商业环境中与亚马逊对抗。
But I also wouldn't be surprised if they took a more cautious approach, because how can you be so confident when you're facing a giant like Amazon, right ? Imagine you are facing off against Amazon in a competitive business environment .
因此，基于这些最新进展，我对The Trade Desk评估的一个关键调整是风险因素（以beta表示）的增加。我将其上调至2。因为在我看来，由于这一新威胁和营收增长的显著放缓，The Trade Desk未来的风险比以往的风险高出数倍。
Therefore, based on these recent developments, one of the key adjustments I have made to my assessment of The Trade Desk is an increase in the risk factor, which is represented by beta. I adjusted it upwards to reach two. Because in my opinion, The Trade Desk's future risk is several times higher than previous risks due to this new threat and the significant slowdown in revenue growth.
然而，即使在进行这一调整之后，该股似乎仍被低估。它今天以每股15美元的价格交易。在跌至约12或13美元后，最近有所上涨。即使经过调整，我的公允价值估计也是31美元。因此，The Trade Desk这里有显著的上行机会。
However, even after making this adjustment, the stock appears to be undervalued. It is trading at $15 per share today. It has recently seen a rise after dropping to around $12 or $13. My fair value estimate, even after adjustment, is $31. Therefore, there is a significant upside opportunity here for The Trade Desk,
尽管随着每个季度的过去，我对管理团队利用这一上行机会的能力的信心在减弱，因为我看到情况变得越来越糟。因此，我的投资组合中持有The Trade Desk的股票。我还没有卖出任何股票。
我仍然打算执行我的计划，在今年年底前卖出我在The Trade Desk买入的三分之一股票。
although my confidence in the management team's ability to capitalize on this upside diminishes with each passing quarter , as I see the situation getting worse and worse. Therefore, I own The Trade Desk stock in my investment portfolio. I haven't sold any of my shares yet . I still intend to proceed with my plan to sell one-third of the shares I bought in The Trade Desk by the end of this year.
记住，我以大约43美元的价格买入了第一批The Trade Desk股票，然后在18美元、19美元和20美元的水平上三倍加仓。我在40美元以上买入的中心是我打算在年底前卖出的第三个，目的是减少税收损失。
Remember that I bought my first batch of shares of " The Trade Desk" for about $43, then tripled my investment position at levels of $ 18, $19 and $20. The center I bought for over $40 is the third I intend to sell by the end of the year for the purpose of reducing tax losses.
因此，今天我将重申对The Trade Desk股票的“买入”评级，但我将我的信心水平降至中等水平。我开始对公司抵御这一威胁的能力失去信心。我开始对公司应对和适应这些正在损害整个业务的动态变化的能力失去耐心。
Therefore, today I will reiterate my "buy" rating for The Trade Desk stock, but I am lowering my conviction level to the medium level. I began to lose confidence in the company's ability to withstand this threat. I am beginning to lose patience with the company's ability to cope with and adapt to these changing dynamics , which is harming the business as a whole.
因此，我真的需要看到公司在下一季度有一些积极的表现，才能继续作为投资者并保持兴趣，并继续相信他们能够生存并保护至少大部分业务，尽管我承认他们已经向亚马逊失去了一些市场份额。
Therefore, I really need to see something positive from the company in its next quarter to remain an investor and interested, and to remain confident in their ability to survive and protect at least a large part of their business , despite my acknowledgment that they have lost some market share to Amazon.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $TTD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。