$TXN

TXN估值相对行业偏高,限制了潜在涨幅;尽管业务表现强劲,仍避免买入。

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《5 Stocks Billionaire Steve Cohen is BUYING Right Now! 🚨》
Ale's World of Stocks发布 2026-09-20 · 8 段内容
10:53/ 打开原视频

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8 段内容
10:5314:23

这就是德州仪器,那家历史悠久的芯片制造商,股票代码为 TXN,Cohen 在上一季度买入了价值超过 3.4 亿美元的股票。

It is Texas Instruments, the long-established chipmaker, ticker symbol TXN, in which Cohen bought shares worth more than $340 million during the last quarter.

看这里的价格走势图,可以看到该股在年初出现了大幅上涨。但它实际上小幅回落了。抱歉,我把截图弄丢了,不过没错,该股自那个高点以来已经下跌了约四分之一。过去五年里,它的表现几乎没有什么变化,在我们这个现代科技市场里,这算不上好表现,尤其对一家芯片公司的股票来说,不是吗?其中一些股票当时正在大幅上涨。

Looking at the price chart here, we can see that the stock saw a significant rise at the beginning of the year. But it actually dropped a little. Sorry, I lost the screenshots, but yes, the stock has lost about a quarter of its value since that peak.

Its performance has remained almost unchanged over the past five years, which is not considered good performance in our modern technology market, especially for a chip company's stock, is it?

Some of these stocks were experiencing a significant rise.

最近这轮下跌源于投资者对第三季度前景的担忧,管理层预计销售额将略低于分析师的预期,主要原因是近期的涨价要到第四季度才会完全计入账目。

This latest decline is due to investor concerns about the third-quarter outlook, with management predicting sales will fall slightly short of analysts' expectations, mainly because recent price increases will not be fully recorded in the books until the fourth quarter.

但如果看更大的格局,TXN 当前的上升趋势非常强劲,它的业务并不是要在更智能、更快的 AI 处理器领域与 Nvidia 或 AMD 这样的公司竞争,而是主导所谓的模拟芯片。这些芯片在 AI 基础设施热潮中起着关键作用。

当科技巨头运行数千个消耗巨大电力的 AI 处理器时,它们通常依赖 TXN 的模拟芯片来管理来自电网的电力,并防止这些系统过热。

But if we look at the bigger picture, the current upward trend is very strong for TXN, whose business is not aimed at competing with companies like Nvidia or AMD in the field of smarter and faster AI processors, but rather dominates what are known as analog chips.

These chips play a pivotal role in the AI infrastructure boom. When giant technology companies operate thousands of AI processors that consume enormous amounts of power, they typically rely on analog TXN chips to manage electrical power from the grid and prevent these systems from overheating.

近期人工智能需求的激增大幅提振了该公司的财务表现,上一季度销售额跃升 23%,每股收益上升 52%。但最引人注目的指标是数据中心板块,其相关销售额较去年同期翻了一倍。虽然许多其他芯片制造商几乎完全依赖少数几个大买家,但 TXN 向全球约 10 万名客户销售超过 8 万种不同的产品。

这种业务规模上的高度多元化,使其在过去十二个月中产生了 65 亿美元的净自由现金流。

The recent surge in demand for artificial intelligence has led to a significant boost in the company's financial performance, with sales jumping 23 % in the last quarter and earnings per share rising 52%.

But the most notable indicator was in the data center sector, where sales related to it doubled compared to last year. While many other chip manufacturers rely almost entirely on a few large buyers, TXN sells a wide range of more than 80,000 different products to around 100,000 customers worldwide.

This great diversity in the size of its business has enabled it to generate net free cash flow of US$6.5 billion over the past twelve months.

当其他科技巨头正投入巨额资金向人工智能及其基础设施扩张、并因此让许多投资者疏远时,TXN 在上一季度将资本支出削减了 60%,降至约 5 亿美元。这一现金流也使其能够派发丰厚的股息,目前股息率超过 2%,并且已连续增长二十多年。

While other tech giants are spending huge sums to expand into artificial intelligence and its infrastructure, which is alienating many investors, TXN cut its capital expenditures by 60% in the last quarter to about half a billion dollars.

This cash flow also enables it to distribute generous dividends, currently exceeding 2%, and has continued to grow for more than two consecutive decades.

但问题在于:尽管这项业务多年来一直很出色,真正让我不买这只股票的是估值。按大多数衡量标准,它们的交易价格都远高于行业平均水平,而对于一家处于如此周期性行业、并且为拥有和运营自有工厂而承担巨额固定成本的公司来说,眼下这是我不愿意容忍的。

在我看来,以这样的估值,你或许期待这类科技股出现的大幅上涨不太可能实现。我不认为它会一飞冲天,或者至少不会像市场上其他一些我认为更具吸引力或定价更合理的股票那样强劲。

But here’s the thing: as great as this business has been over the years, the valuation is what’s really stopping me from buying the shares. They’re trading at a price far above the sector average by most measures, and that’s not something I’m willing to tolerate right now for a company operating in such a cyclical sector and incurring huge fixed costs to own and operate its own plants.

In my opinion, any significant rise you might expect from a tech stock like this at this valuation is unlikely to materialize. I don't think it will skyrocket, or at least it won't be as strong as some of the other names in the market that I find more attractive or better priced.

此外,我想说,我已经持有大量半导体公司的股票,在人工智能以及更广泛科技领域的持仓更多,所以目前我不需要更多了。我不知道该如何把它们与这份名单上的其他股票进行排序,因为我觉得我对这三只股票的兴趣几乎一直保持不变,而且彼此相似,但为了我们这份正式名单,仅基于兴趣,我会把 TXN 股票放在前两只股票之间。

因此,我们将把 Snowflake 上调至第二位,把 Texas 放在第三位,暂时把 TXN 留在第四位。

In addition, I would like to say that I already own a large number of shares in semiconductor companies, and even more in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology in general, so I do not need more at the moment.

I don't know how to rank them in relation to the other stocks on this list, because I feel my interest in these three stocks has been almost constant and similar to each other, but for the purposes of our official list, I will put TXN stock between the first two stocks based on interest only.

Therefore, we will move Snowflake up to second place, put Texas in third, and leave TXN in fourth place temporarily.

这个频道对 $TXN 的历次判断

Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-20看跌本条
这就是德州仪器,那家历史悠久的芯片制造商,股票代码为 TXN,Cohen 在上一季度买入了价值超过 3.4 亿美元的股票。
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