建仓 Unity Software 作为互补性对冲，理由是营收与利润率加速、自由现金流强劲，以及 AI 飞轮的潜力。
逐段跳播
Unity Software。距离我们上次谈论 Unity Software 已经过去大约一年了。
Unity Software. It's been about a year since we talked about Unity Software.
我们再谈谈哪些地方可能出问题，我认为我们会在 Unity Software 上再次建仓。距离我们上次覆盖它已经过去一年半了，但我们还是用我们的一些工具来过一遍吧。
Let's talk about more what could go wrong, and I think we're gonna take a position again in Unity Software. It's been a year and a half since we covered it, but let's just run this through some of our tools.
我们来看看 Unity Software，这只新上市的 IPO，它目前某种程度上仍由 Blackstone 持有。
Let's do Unity Software, the new IPO that it's still kind of owned by Blackstone,
Unity Software 重新回到增长模式。管理层在上一次财报电话会议上表示——如果你现在去 Unity Software 的投资者关系页面，其实可以读到并收听——那里有幻灯片、电话会议记录，所有那些好东西。营收正在加速，但利润率也在加速。
Unity Software back in growth mode again. Management said on the last earnings call, which you can actually read and listen to now if you go to the Unity Software page, Investor Relations.
There's a slide deck, call transcripts, all that good stuff. Revenue is accelerating, but so are the profit margins.
所以像 Unity 这样的公司，它们已经把自己的事情理顺了。基本上，它们可以走出去做同样的事情，就像有些人声称发生在 The Trade Desk 身上的那样，尽管我们也可以把其中一部分归咎于一些宏观经济因素。
像 Amazon 这样的公司去找那些大品牌客户说：“嘿，你们为什么不用我们的 DSP？我们给你打个折。”看起来这可能正是 Unity 身上正在发生的事。
So as companies like Unity, they've gotten their act together, Basically, they can go out and do the same thing that some people claimed happened to The Trade Desk, although we could also blame some macroeconomic factors on that as well.
Companies like Amazon went to those big brand customers and said, "Hey, why don't you use our DSP? We'll cut you a deal." It would seem that might be what's happening with Unity.
而 Unity Software 会不会非常乐意实现 20% 的营业利润率，而目前按 GAAP 口径其营业利润率为负 6%？
And would Unity Software be plenty happy turning a twenty percent operating margin when currently their operating margin is at negative six percent on a GAAP basis?
上个季度自由现金流大幅上升，但我们可以把它平滑一下。过去十二个月，你其实可以看到它低于 30%。是的，当然，它们会。它们当然会非常乐意以折扣价出售自己的服务，去蚕食 AppLovin 在过去十二个月期间高达 66% 的自由现金流利润率。
Free cash flow is up a lot this last quarter, but we can actually smooth it out. Last twelve months, you can actually see it's under thirty percent. Yeah, of course, they would.
Of course, they would be more than happy to sell their services at a discounted price and eat away at AppLovin's massive sixty-six percent free cash flow margin over the last trailing twelve-month period.
长话短说，我认为我们会稍微对冲一下我们的押注，在 Unity Software 上持有一个仓位，押注 AI 带来电子游戏、手机游戏创作爆发这一结果，而 Unity 拥有一个完整的飞轮。
它们可以利用 AI。Unity 7 将在今年晚些时候推出，届时它们可以帮助发行商创作游戏，然后帮助发行商投放游戏广告，全部在内部完成，从而形成那种飞轮效应。
The long story short here is, I think we're going to hedge our bets a little bit and own a position in Unity Software for this outcome that AI creates this explosion in video game, mobile game creation, and Unity has a full flywheel.
They can use AI. Unity 7 is coming out later this year, where they can help publishers create games and then help publishers advertise games all in-house, creating that flywheel effect.
对 Unity Software 来说这是重要的一点。费用控制，它们在夯实费用方面大幅增加。结果，自由现金流再次非常好。这是趋势。所以自由现金流强劲为正，而且自由现金流在增长。这太棒了。
Here's the big one for Unity Software. Expense control, huge increase on them shoring up their expenses. And as a result, the free cash flow is very good once again. Here's the trend.
So robustly free cash flow positive and free cash flow is growing. That's fantastic.
我们是在能买到的最便宜价格买入的吗？不，显然不是。我们去年错过了几次，今年早些时候也疏忽了没有去看它。但如果这件事继续按照它看起来将会发展的方式推进，我们有点认为 Unity 可能是一个非常好的互补性对冲仓位。这就是我们打算操作的方式。
Are we buying it at the absolute cheapest price we could have? No, obviously not. We passed a couple of times last year and neglected to look at it earlier this year. But if this continues to play out the way it appears it will be, we kind of think Unity could be a really nice complementary hedge position. That's how we're going to play it.
观察点
这个频道对 $U 的历次判断
Chip Stock Investor 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。