UA面临30-40亿美元的收入天花板；超越这一利基市场扩张将带来高风险、更低盈利能力和更慢的增长。
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像这样的品牌。我记得我在阿姆斯特丹的同事，他们的配偶中有人在 Under Armour 工作。我们应该以 15% 的折扣买入股票吗？我告诉他们，如果你们认为 Under Armour 在未来 5 到 10 年会是一门更好的生意——但这并没有发生。
A brand like this. I remember here my colleagues in Amsterdam they were some of their spouses were working at under arour. Should we buy stocks at 15% discount? I told them if you think Under Arour will be a better business in 5 to 10 years that didn't happen.
同样地，Under Armour 的净利润率强劲增长，随后上市，接着就像旧臭鞋一样被扔进垃圾桶。华尔街只看重增长。只要新上市公司能保持增长就是好事。一旦开始减速，情况就会变得糟糕。
问题是，这家公司能在未来 5 年内规模翻倍吗？这纯粹是增长的宠物。
Similarly, under armor, net profit margins, strong growing, going public, and then it goes into the trash like old smelly shoes. Wall Street is all about growth. As long as a new public company can grow is good. If it starts decelerating, it gets ugly. And the question is, can the company double in the next 5 years? It's a pure pet of growth.
但在时尚股票方面，比如 Under Armour，存在一个 30 到 40 亿美元的天花板，它们触及这个上限后必须进入新的细分市场。这需要向新市场扩张，而这非常昂贵、风险极高，会导致盈利能力下降、利润率降低、增长放缓。然后它们不得不与巨头竞争，这就是商业风险。
But when it comes to fashion stocks, Under Arour, this that there is this three 4 billion ceiling that they hit and then they pass the niche and they they need to expand into new markets. That's very expensive, very risky, less profitability, lower margins, slower growth. They then compete with the big boys and that's the business risk.
这个频道对 $UA 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。