对Uber在自动驾驶汽车领域的竞争能力持怀疑态度,认为其成本结构难以与特斯拉匹敌,并怀疑其能否在10年内达到特斯拉的市场份额。
逐段跳播
为什么 Uber 会彻底崩溃?抱歉,Jason。
Why did Uber completely fall apart? Sorry, Jason.
而且,为什么 Uber 在其运营中承担了名为“人类”的巨大成本,却也已经走到了时代的尽头?
And why is it that Uber, which incurs a huge cost called human beings in its operation, has also reached the end of its era?
排在第二位的是 Uber 的虚拟网络,包含 20 个合作伙伴,占 35%,接近第二位。他补充道:“在我看来,Uber 和特斯拉分别是低于 100 美元和低于 400 美元时一生难得的交易。”他说。
In second place, Uber's virtual network of 20 partners, 35%, which is close to second place . He adds: "Uber and Tesla are the deals of a lifetime at under $100 and under $400 respectively, in my opinion." He says.
现在,每个人都有权发表自己的意见,即使是 Jason 也不例外。懂的人自然懂。我认为值得一提的是,如果我没记错的话,Jason 是 Uber 的早期投资者,并且仍然持有那笔投资的绝大部分(如果不是全部的话),这对他来说是一笔巨大的财富,所以,干得好,Jason。
Now, everyone has the right to their opinion, even Jason. He who knows, knows. I think it's worth mentioning that, if I remember correctly, Jason was an early investor in Uber and still holds most, if not all, of that investment, which was a huge fortune for him, so well done, Jason.
我提到这一点没有别的原因,只是想指出 Jason 对 Uber 及其业务有一定的了解,或者说有理由去适应,我的意思是,只是对 Uber 及其业务有一些了解。
I mention this for no other reason than to point out that Jason has some familiarity with, or reason to adapt to, I mean, just some knowledge of Uber and their business.
鉴于 Uber 的结构及其 20 个合作伙伴的网络,以及谁知道还有多少其他公司与这些合作伙伴交织在一起,再加上艰难的成本结构,我觉得有点难以理解 Uber 如何在十年后在自动驾驶汽车市场中保持与特斯拉大致相当的份额。
I find it a little difficult to understand how Uber will maintain a share roughly equal to Tesla's in the self- driving vehicle market a decade from now, given Uber's structure and its network of 20 partners, and who knows how many other companies are intertwined with those partners, in addition to the difficult cost structure .
我非常想知道 Jason 得出 Uber 和特斯拉将在十年内总市场份额大致相等的结论的基本逻辑。
I am very interested to know the basic logic that led Jason to conclude that Uber and Tesla would be roughly equal in total market share within a decade.
嗯,我的一位不太聪明的内容创作者同事问道:“当 Uber 已经与司机工会合作以减缓自动驾驶汽车的推出时,它如何竞争?”
Well, one of my less-than-intelligent content creator colleagues asked: "How can Uber compete when it is already collaborating with driver unions to slow down the rollout of self-driving vehicles?"
“与完全自动驾驶汽车相比,什么会因人力劳动而人为地推高他们的每英里成本?Uber 如何防止其网络因不得不降低人类司机的价格以与像特斯拉这样垂直整合的自动驾驶汽车提供商保持竞争力而受到干扰,尤其是当其他提供商只有特斯拉影响力的一小部分时?”
"What will artificially inflate their cost per mile due to human labor compared to fully autonomous vehicles? How does Uber prevent its network from being disrupted by having to lower its prices for human drivers to remain competitive with vertically integrated autonomous vehicle providers like Tesla, especially since other providers only have a fraction of Tesla's reach?"
也许我会稍微不同地措辞这个问题。我的意思是,Uber 是否试图推迟自动驾驶技术的推出——剧透一下,他们确实在这样做——并不是问题的关键。
Perhaps I would have phrased this question slightly differently. I mean, whether Uber is trying to delay the rollout of autonomous driving technology or not—and spoiler, they are— isn't the crux of the question.
但无论如何,我的基本、一般性问题与 Farzad 在这里的问题相似,那就是:Uber 如何竞争?幸运的是,Jason 回答了这个问题。引用:“Uber 正在实施一项绝妙之举,而你们太盲目以至于看不到,因为你们是渴望点击量和浏览量的谄媚的 YouTuber。”
But regardless, my fundamental, general question is similar to Farzad's question here, which is: How does Uber compete? Luckily for us, Jason answered that. Quote: 'Uber is pulling off a masterstroke, and you're too blind to see it because you're a sycophantic YouTuber who craves clicks and views.'"
“在短期和中期保护工人是社会长期广泛接受自动驾驶汽车的唯一途径。我看到 Jason 似乎对 Uber 试图通过工会减缓自动驾驶汽车技术推出的做法感到满意。”
"Protecting workers in the short and medium term is the only way society will widely accept self-driving vehicles in the long run. I see that Jason seems satisfied with Uber's attempts to slow the rollout of self-driving vehicle technology through unions.
让我们继续看 Jason 的回应。“Uber 是监管机构可以合作的唯一参与者,以确保数千万司机在未来十年内不会失业。”
Let's continue with Jason's response." Uber is the only player regulators can work with to ensure tens of millions of drivers don't lose their jobs over the next decade.
通过缓慢推出自动驾驶汽车,作为人类司机的软着陆,我们可以保护社会免受 Waymo 汽车被当街焚烧的影响。难道你没有注意到数据中心被拦截了吗?
By slowly rolling out self- driving vehicles as a soft landing for human drivers, we can protect society from Waymo cars being burned on the streets. Don't you notice the data centers being intercepted?
你真的认为,如果消费者可以选择,比如说假设性地,为相同的服务支付双倍的价格,即人类驾驶的 Uber 对比机器人出租车,你真的认为会有人说:“你知道吗?是的,我很乐意为此服务支付双倍的价格,因为我是一个有原则的人,而我的原则意味着我被编程为相信,对今天以驾驶为生的人的大规模干扰是不公平的。”
Do you really think if consumers had the option to pay, let's say hypothetically, double the price for an identical service, a human-driven Uber versus a robot taxi, do you really think someone would say, "You know what? Yes, I am happy to literally pay double for this service because I am a person of principle, and by principle I mean I have been programmed to believe that the massive disruption to people who make a living from driving today is not fair.
Jason 是在暗示家长式政府应该介入,阻止消费者获得一种远为优越且更实惠的服务吗?他是在暗示,那些不想冒险乘坐由完全无道德的个体驾驶的车辆、并且宁愿以相同成本(或者在这种情况下,以低得多的成本)选择无人驾驶车辆的女性,应该被剥夺这种选择吗?
Is Jason suggesting that the patriarchal government should step in and prevent consumers from accessing a far superior and more affordable service? Is he suggesting that women who don't want to risk riding in a vehicle driven by a completely unscrupulous individual and would prefer a driverless vehicle for the same cost, or in this case, a much lower cost , should be denied that option?
如果你不是那么有偏见,你就会意识到,中国暂停自动驾驶汽车牌照发放是出于对失业问题的担忧。如果监管机构不缓慢而谨慎地发放自动驾驶汽车牌照,那么DoorDash司机、卡车司机和拼车服务参与者的失业问题将会非常严重。
If you weren't so biased, you'd realize that China halted the licensing of self- driving vehicles because of concerns about job losses. Job losses for door-dash drivers, truck drivers, and ride-sharing service participants will be severe if regulators don't slowly and carefully license self- driving vehicles.
除了你和你的感叹号,所有人都明白这一点。Farzad,你的思维太有偏见了,无法成为真正的分析师。你需要停止考虑你的书、点击量和推荐码,超越这些,去考虑自动驾驶汽车的全球部署。
Everyone understands this, except you and your exclamation mark. You're too biased in your thinking, Farzad, to be a true analyst. You need to stop thinking about your book, clicks, and referral codes, and rise above it to consider the global deployment of self-driving vehicles ."
这位渴望点击量的YouTuber回应道:“我提出了一个非常合乎逻辑的论点,说明为什么我认为Uber陷入困境,而你却选择对我进行人身攻击。”
The click-hungry YouTuber responded to this, saying, "I made a very logical argument about why I believe Uber is in trouble, and you chose to attack me personally."
这将导致大约十年后,Uber和特斯拉在自动驾驶汽车领域拥有相当的市场份额。
This will result in both Uber and Tesla having a comparable market share of self-driving vehicles about a decade from now.
我将致力于制作一些“标题党”标题,来解释为什么Uber彻底完蛋了。
I'm going to work on some "clickbait" headlines to explain why Uber is completely finished,
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。