优步对人工司机的依赖使其在低成本自动驾驶汽车面前处于结构性劣势，对其商业模式构成生存威胁。
逐段跳播
每个人最喜欢的早期优步投资者目前正经历一波热情，分享他对未来可能发生的事情的看法、想法、见解，甚至阴谋论。如果特斯拉、亚马逊或谷歌以3000亿美元收购优步以赢得部署自动驾驶汽车的竞赛，不要感到惊讶。
everyone's favorite early-stage Uber investor is currently going through a wave of enthusiasm, sharing his opinions, ideas, perceptions, and even conspiracy theories about what might happen in the future. Don't be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for $300 billion to win the race to deploy self-driving vehicles.
现在，暂且把亚马逊和谷歌放在一边，如果特斯拉要收购优步，我将退出内容创作。这就是我对这不会发生的信心程度。特斯拉以3000亿美元收购优步的可能性为0.0%，甚至用一包口香糖和一些糖果也不可能。
Now, putting aside Amazon and Google for a moment, if Tesla were to buy Uber, I would retire from content creation. This is my level of confidence that this will not happen. There is a 0.0% chance that Tesla will buy Uber for $300 billion , or even for a pack of gum and some candy .
然后他告诉我们，如果特斯拉、亚马逊或谷歌以大约3000亿美元收购优步，不要感到惊讶，提醒你，这相当于其当前市值的两倍，目的是为了赢得自动驾驶汽车的推广。
He then tells us not to be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for around $300 billion, which, to remind you, is double its current market value , in order to win the rollout of self-driving vehicles.
最后，如果DoorDash、优步和/或Lyft合并，然后收购一家汽车公司，不要感到惊讶。
Finally, don't be surprised if Dor Dash, Uber, and/or Lyft merge and then buy a car company.
就目前的状态而言，优步是一家优秀的公司，无论在产品还是服务方面；这不仅仅关乎叫车有多容易。我的意思是，如果你在大城市中心，你实际上可以打开优步应用，在一分钟或最多四分钟内，就会有人来接你。这太棒了。
In its current state, Uber is an excellent company , in terms of both product and service; it's not just about how easy it is to order a ride. I mean, if you're in the middle of a major city , you can actually open the Uber app, and within a minute or four minutes at most, someone will arrive to pick you up. It's amazing .
然后是优步外卖，它在送餐方面相当于DoorDash，也是一项出色的服务。我的意思是，你支付的价格还算合理，但优步在扩展其服务方面非常成功，至少在西方，它已经覆盖了所有主要市场。
Then there's Uber Eats, which is the equivalent of Dash in food delivery, and it's also an excellent service. I mean, you pay a fair amount, but Uber has been very successful in expanding its services to become available in all major markets, at least in the West.
但他们整个商业模式都基于人类驾驶的车辆。随着廉价且普遍可用的自动驾驶技术的出现，他们将没有希望竞争，因为他们无法在人力成本上与任何人竞争，而自动驾驶车辆中不再需要人力。
But their entire business model is based on vehicles driven by humans. With the emergence of cheap and universally available self-driving technologies, they will have no hope of competing, because they cannot compete with anyone at the cost of the human element, which is no longer required in self- driving vehicles.
为了论证，让我们假设DoorDash和优步真的会合并。
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Dash and Uber will actually merge.
DoorDash和优步真正实现的唯一东西是现有的网络和基础设施、应用程序以及动态定价。回到Sawyer关于特斯拉收购优步可能性为0%的帖子，Jason回应说：“这个行业即将发生重大并购。”
The only thing that has actually been achieved with DoorDash and Uber is the existing network and infrastructure, application, and dynamic pricing. Returning to Sawyer's post about the 0% chance of Tesla buying Uber, Jason responded by saying: "Major mergers and acquisitions are coming to this industry."
如果你不相信我，你能做的最好的事情就是做空优步、DoorDash、Lyft、Rivian和Lucid的股票。我不建议你这样做，因为在18个月内，这四家公司的价值将增长50%到100%，和/或它们将达成某种并购交易。
If you don't believe me, the best thing you can do is short sell shares of Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, Rivian, and Lucid." I do not advise you to do that because within 18 months, the value of these four companies will increase by 50 to 100% and/or they will have entered into some form of merger and acquisition deal.
他们为什么不这样做呢？亚马逊加优步加Waymo等于头号玩家。
Why don't they do that? Amazon plus Uber plus Waymo equals player number one .
特斯拉加优步等于头号玩家。他补充说：“优步加DoorDash加Nuro加Lucid等于遥遥领先的头号玩家。”“Waymo加DoorDash加优步等于头号玩家。”
Tesla plus Uber equals player number one. He adds: "Uber plus Dordash plus Nuru plus Lucid equals the number one player by a wide margin." "Waymo plus DorDash plus Uber equals player number one."
任何公司，无论是送餐、客运（如优步、Lyft等）还是汽车行业，只要有点头脑，都会认识到安全、广泛且低成本的公共自动驾驶系统所带来的生存威胁。
any company, whether in food delivery, passenger transport (like Uber, Lyft, and others), or the automotive industry, if it has any sense, recognizes the existential threat posed by a safe, widespread, and low-cost public autonomous driving system.
我最好的猜测是，Jason 认为 Uber 网络、DoorDash 网络以及随之而来的一切——他们现有的应用程序、客户群、软件以及能够高效地将乘客与行程连接起来的算法——除了现有品牌之外，还代表着巨大的优势，因此即使他们受到巨额成本赤字的阻碍，他们也不会消失，因为人们已经习惯使用 Uber 和 DoorDash。
My best guess is that Jason believes that the Uber network, the DoorDash network, and everything that entails—their existing apps, their customer base, the software, and the algorithms capable of efficiently connecting riders to rides— represent a tremendous advantage in addition to the existing brand, so that they won't disappear even if they are hampered by a huge cost deficit, because people are used to using Uber and DoorDash.
他们将能够通过拥有一个人们熟知并使用的现有品牌和平台，以某种方式克服难以逾越的成本劣势。我认为，即使一些大型合并发生在不同公司之间——Uber、DoorDash、Rivian、Lucid、大众汽车以及一些新兴的自动驾驶汽车公司——如果没有几个“魔法按钮”，他们也无法在成本、规模以及整体自动驾驶能力上匹敌特斯拉。
They will somehow be able to overcome the insurmountable cost disadvantages by having an existing brand and platform that people know and use. I think that even if some kind of mega-merger were to take place between a group of different companies— Uber, DoorDash, Rivian, Lucid, Volkswagen , and some emerging self-driving car companies— they would not be able, without access to several “ magic buttons,” to match Tesla’s cost, size, and overall autonomous driving capabilities.
但即使这种情况发生，并且公司在十年后仍能履行其财务义务，Uber 已经拥有一个平台，并且它正在与十几家其他公司合作，所有这些公司都提供自动驾驶汽车，并试图在成本上与特斯拉竞争。
But even if this scenario comes to pass and the company remains able to meet its financial obligations a decade later, Uber already has a platform , and it is collaborating with more than a dozen other companies, all of which provide self-driving vehicles and are trying to compete with Tesla on cost.
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。