UBER因基本面强劲（20-30%增长、100亿美元自由现金流）及内部人买入，是高质量的买入并持有资产，尽管市场目前低估了它。
逐段跳播
哪只股票最让我兴奋？我不想重蹈上次的覆辙。但在此声明，我依然看好Uber、MSG Sports和Atlanta Braves Holdings。都是很棒的股票。
Which stock excites me the most? I don't want a repeat of what happened last time. But for the record, I still love Uber, MSG Sports, and Atlanta Braves Holdings. Great shares.
给我更新一下Uber的投资逻辑，因为我的看法是，他们说什么都不重要。要反驳一个否定性的论断是很难的。市场根本不在乎。那么……Dara刚刚买了多少？他自己掏钱买了多少股票？我想是1000万。
而那位财务负责人，我想，买了500万。股价依然没有上涨。好。第二天股价还跌了。所以现在他们在回购股票。机构回购。内部人士买入。他们在多个城市、与多个合作伙伴，在街头开展自动驾驶出租车的实际、有形的合作。
这些都不重要。这只股票看起来会以12倍市盈率交易。从方向上看，这似乎就是它正在走的路径。我认为，如果它继续以每年20%到30%的速度增长，股价几乎不可能原地不动。不，我无法告诉你触发这一点的催化剂是什么。
嗯，但你拥有一家很棒的企业，这是一只你应该持有的股票。我认为这是一个买入并持有策略的范例，因为企业基本面很棒。他们为什么不回购股票？为什么不回购20%的股票？为什么不发出收购要约？
是的。如果你给Uber做顾问，去和投资者关系负责人、财务主管和CEO谈，实际上，这些年来你参与过许多因增长而被严重低估的股票。你怎么才能走到一个圆满的结局？除了管理和执行工作——他们显然正在做——你还会告诉他们什么？
如果他们相信自己仍有能力投资于这项业务，你会就股市管理给他们什么建议？
Give me an update on Uber's thesis, because my view is that nothing they say matters. It is difficult to refute a negative claim. The market doesn't care at all. Okay, so...how much did Dara just buy?
How much did he just spend to buy shares for himself? I think 10 million. And the financial manager, I think, bought it for five. The stock is still not rising. Okay. The stock fell the following day.
So now they are buying back the shares. Institutional buyback. Insiders buy. They have actual and tangible partnerships for self-driving taxis on the streets of multiple cities with multiple partners.
That doesn't matter. This stock looks like it will trade at 12 times earnings. In terms of direction, this appears to be the path it is taking. I think it is almost impossible for the stock to remain the same if it continues to grow at a rate of 20 to 30% annually.
No, I can't tell you what the trigger is for that. Hmm, but you have a great business and this is a stock you should hold onto. I think this is an example of a buy-and-hold strategy because the business fundamentals are great.
Why don't they buy back the shares? Why don't they buy back 20% of the shares? Why don't they make a purchase offer? Yes. If you advise Uber, and talk to investor relations officers, the treasurer, and the CEO, virtually, you have been involved with many stocks that have been significantly undervalued for their growth over the years.
How do you get to a happy ending here? What else would you tell them besides managing and executing the work, which they are clearly doing? What would you tell them regarding stock market management if they believed they were still capable of investing in the business?
我会说，他们应该做必要的事去投资这项业务，保留一些现金，然后尽可能多地买入股票。啊，发出收购要约也不是个坏主意。我喜欢这些内部人士的买入。Dara直到最近还是一名股票经纪人。我认为这对市场来说是一个很好的信号。
I would say that they should do what is necessary to invest in the business, retain some cash, and then buy as many shares as possible. Ah, making a purchase offer isn't a bad idea.
I liked these insider purchases. Dar was a stockbroker until recently. I think it's a great signal for the market.
嗯，所以我认为你只能耐心等待。从那时到现在还没过多久。每年，这只股票要么是我表现最好的股票，要么是我表现最差的股票。
Hmm, so I think you just have to be patient. It hasn't been long since then. Every year, this stock is either my best or worst performing stock.
那么，他们在2027年会产生多少自由现金流？大约是100亿左右。那是个疯狂的数字。
What about, how much free cash flow will they generate in 2027? It was about 10 billion or so. That's an insane number.
是的。关于市值。这太疯狂了。我是凭记忆回想起来的，但我认为大约是100亿美元。我的意思是，他们执行计划执行得非常好。他们做的一切都正确。到了某个时候，他们会得到回报的。嗯，我认为悲观是荒谬的，但是，你知道。
Yes. Regarding market value. It's crazy. I recall that from memory, but I think it was around $10 billion. I mean, they execute their plans very well. They do everything correctly.
At some point, they will be rewarded. Hmm, I think being pessimistic is ridiculous, but, you know.
他们正在投资于自动驾驶车队的股份，而这是他们两年前说过不感兴趣的事情。但从他们的角度看，他们需要用并非来自Waymo或Tesla的车队来提振市场。他们需要把车开上路。最快的方式就是给生产这些车的原始设备制造商提供资金。
They are making investments in shares of self-driving vehicle fleets, something they said two years ago they were not interested in. But from their point of view, they need to boost the market with fleets that are not from Waymo or Tesla.
They need to put cars on the road. The fastest way to do this is to give money to the original equipment manufacturers who produce the cars.
或者投资于外部人工智能公司提供的车队。所以他们在欧洲、美国以及亚洲都这么做。市场并不因为这些投资是好的投资而给予他们任何认可。
Or invest in vehicle fleets provided by external artificial intelligence companies. So they do that in Europe, in the United States, and in Asia. The market gives them no credit for any of these investments being good investments.
你对此感到意外吗？不。我的意思是，这就是市场，你知道，市场做市场该做的事。其实也没过多久。我的意思是，这只股票的价格曾是100美元。就在不久之前。所以，我想我只能耐心等待。嗯，你知道，这就是那种事情之一。这令人沮丧，但这就是现实。
Are you surprised by that? no. I mean, it's the market, you know, it does what the market does. It really wasn't that long. I mean, this stock was priced at $100. Not too long ago.
So, I think I just have to be patient. Um, you know, it's one of those things. It's frustrating, but that's the reality.
谁知道呢，同样的事情也可能发生在Uber身上，某条新闻标题一出现，股价就跳涨10%，然后再也不回落。Meta和Uber在这两种情况下的共同点是，这些都不是陷入困境的公司。绝对如此。好。这些只是失去了光彩的股票。
And who knows, the same thing might happen with Uber, where a news headline appears and the stock jumps by 10% and never comes back down. What Meta and Uber have in common in both cases is that these were not struggling companies.
Absolutely. Okay. These are just shares that have lost their luster.
是的，Uber也是如此。他们在利润预期上什么都没做。指引仍然与1月份时一样。好。这无疑是一只陷入困境的股票，但它根本不是一家陷入困境的企业。
Yes, and the same goes for Uber. They did nothing with their profit estimates. The guidelines remain the same as they were in January. Okay. It is certainly a struggling stock, but it is not a struggling business at all.
如果你决定退出这只股票，等待某事发生，你会以高出20%的价格买回来吗？这就是问题所在。这就是这件事的心理层面。而且你知道，我……你知道，这就是为什么，你知道，你要忍受这种痛苦，但我相信这种痛苦会带来丰厚的回报。
If you decide to exit the stock and wait for something to happen, will you buy it back at a 20% higher price? That's the problem. This is the psychology of the matter. And you know, I...you know, that's why, you know, you endure the pain, but I believe the pain will pay off well.
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。