UN并非买入标的；8%的预期回报过低，因高债务、低ROIC和运营风险。
逐段跳播
它正在完成一项大规模且高风险的145亿美元收购，并且刚刚遭受了一次扰乱发货运营的网络攻击。所以，大问题是5%到6%的增长是这家公司的新常态，还是增长回升前的暂时低点？
It is in the process of completing a massive and risky $14.5 billion acquisition, and has just suffered a cyberattack that disrupted shipping operations. So, the big question is whether 5 to 6% growth is the new normal for this company, or is it a temporary low point before growth picks up again?
伙计们，再说一次，这是一家市值720亿美元的公司。该机构估值910亿，这相当于190亿美元的债务，主要是。过去一年自由现金流为3.6%，过去五年为2.2%。
Guys, once again, it's a company with a market capitalization of $72 billion. The institution is valued at 91 billion, which is equivalent to $19 billion in debt, mainly. Free cash flow of 3.6% over the past year, and 2.2% over the past five years.
因此，它略高。大约是自由现金流的六倍或五倍半，就债务而言。我喜欢的是，过去一年自由现金流几乎与净利润相同。价格对自由现金流是20，市盈率是20，但这些资本回报率相当温和。过去五年每年5.7%，去年7.3%。
Therefore, it is slightly higher. It is about six times or five and a half times the free cash flow in terms of debt. What I like is that the free cash flow is almost the same as the net income over the past year. The price-to-free cash flow is 20, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 20 , but these returns on capital are rather lukewarm . 5.7% annually for the past five years , and 7.3% last year.
不错，但也不伟大。事实上，过去五年的表现非常糟糕。忘了我说的。非常糟糕。
Not bad, but not great either. In fact, the performance over the past five years has been extremely poor. Forget what I said. It's very bad.
现在，为什么他们的利润率从过去十年的每年13%跃升？它下降到12%，然后去年上升到17.5%。这是值得思考并在未来考虑的事情。
Now, why has their profit margin jumped from 13% annually over the past ten years? It dropped to 12 % and then rose to 17.5% last year. This is something worth thinking about and considering in the future.
我们社区的成员目前认为这家公司处于保留模式。但让我们看看八大支柱。好。这里有很多负面因素。是的，现金流在增加。是的，净利润在上升。是的，收入在增长，但其他一切都不好。现有股票不差，但伙计们，我不知道。
这对我来说似乎还不是一个有吸引力的买入机会。我可能错了。
Members of our community currently consider this company to be in retention mode. But let's look at the eight pillars. Good. There are many negative things here. Yes, the cash flow is increasing. Yes, net income is on the rise. Yes, revenues are rising, but everything else is not good . The existing stocks aren't bad, but guys, I don't know. This doesn't seem like an attractive buying opportunity to me yet . I may be wrong.
有趣的是，分析师预测其收益将在未来六年内从3.40美元翻倍至7美元。六年翻倍意味着每股收益增长12%。收入从220亿增长到380亿。这里似乎对增长没有太多担忧。未来七八年每年8%到11%。因此，分析师似乎长期来看对此非常乐观。
Interestingly, analysts predict its earnings will double from $3.40 to $7 over the next six years. Doubling in 6 years means a 12% growth in earnings per share. Revenue growth from 22 billion to 38 billion . There don't seem to be many concerns about growth here. From 8 to 11% annually for the next seven or eight years. Therefore, analysts seem very optimistic about this in the long term.
好的，各位，我再次计算10年的回报。我使用5%、8%和11%的营收增长率。所以，我仍然允许这里最终有更高的增长率。
Okay guys, once again I'm calculating a return for 10 years. I use revenue growth rates of 5%, 8% and 11%. So, I'm still allowing higher growth rates here in the end.
接下来是自由现金流利润率。各位，我对12、14和16感到满意。在14%时不会高太多，如果他们的新基准是17%的利润和自由现金流，那给了我足够的安全边际。
Next, the free cash flow profit margin. Guys, I feel comfortable with 12, 14, and 16. Not much higher at 14%, and if their new benchmark is 17% profit and free cash flow, that gives me a sufficient margin of safety .
接下来，记住这些资本回报率很低。因此，我不会为这家公司支付溢价。我仍然给出14、17和20，因为它仍然是一家相当不错的公司。你知道，但我不喜欢它的债务水平。我实际上会改变这个。
我会选择13、15和17。这可能看起来有点极端，但鉴于高债务和低资本回报率，我并不喜欢那样。
Next, remember that these returns on capital are low. Therefore , I will not pay a price premium for this company. I still put 14, 17 and 20 because it is still a fairly good company . You know, but I don't like her debt levels. I will actually change this . I would choose 13, 15 and 17. That may seem a little extreme, but with high debt and low returns on capital, I am not a fan of that.
当然，还有我的9.5%的回报。现在，我将按下分析按钮。该股目前处于49。我的低点是27，高点是66，平均是43。所以，对我来说，各位，这8%的回报不值得。
And of course, my 9.5 percent return . Now, I will press the analyze button. The stock is currently at 49. I have a low at 27, a high at 66, and an average at 43. So, for me, guys, this 8% return is not worth it.
这个频道对 $UN 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。