由于失去 Amazon 这一大客户、燃料成本上升以及技术面破位，UPS 缺乏上行催化剂；未发现新的业务增长点。
逐段跳播
是的，Lulu又下跌了1.7%，目前略高于98美元。你最后一个选股我也很期待听到，是UPS。我们看到UPS在过去一个月里失去了动能。它们在下跌，而由于这次下跌，它们年初至今几乎持平。
Yeah, Lulu's down another 1.7% to just above $98 right now. Uh, your last pick I'm excited to hear about, too. It's UPS. Uh, we've seen UPS just lose momentum over the last month. They're down. and it's brought them pretty much flat year to date because of this decline.
那么，你对UPS的论点是什么？是的，我把这框定为提出一个问题：市场是不是在告诉我们一些管理层没有说的事情？因为管理层说一切都很好。第二季度营收同比增长7.6%。我们上调了全年指引。
管理层说重组已经过去，他们正带着动能进入下半年。但我在关注股票走势图，而走势图对这些话并不一定感到兴奋。如果你想想他们所处的业务以及幕后正在发生的事情，他们正在逐步结束与最大客户的关系，也就是Amazon。
所以我认为投资者在质疑，当美国最大的包裹承运商之一日益成为自己的配送竞争对手时，会发生什么。因为现在Amazon正在配送，我相信这个数字，别引用我，我相信大概是他们正在配送自己约85%的包裹，或者他们预计到2029年将配送自己85%到91%的包裹。
所以，他们正日益把配送掌握在自己手中。然后你还得考虑柴油创下了每加仑5.85美分的纪录高位，接近每加仑6美元。所以，这对一个靠卡车在路上跑、靠飞机飞送包裹的业务来说没有帮助。你真的得问自己，如果你已经失去了最大的电商客户，也就是Amazon，而且你正在逐步结束这段关系，那电商、配送或包裹还有什么其他理由会繁荣？
所以，什么能帮助包裹和配送回升？我不知道我们对此有答案。而我认为这就是你在股票中看到的情况。你还有一个在118区域附近形成的双顶。但更重要的是，这只股票刚刚跌破200日移动均线。
然后所有移动均线都在向下交叉。技术面就是不好看。而且我也没有基本面故事或业务故事来说，这就是为什么这些公司的运输和包裹会增加。这是他们将争取到的客户，将成为下一个Amazon来扭转局面。所以，我不、我不、我不认为，让我……
So, what's your thesis on UPS? Yeah, I framed this as asking the question, is the market telling us something that management isn't? Cuz management is saying that everything is great. You know, Q2 revenue was up 7.6% year-over-year. We raised full guidance. Management said that the restructuring is behind them and that they're entering the second half with momentum. But I'm paying attention to the stock chart and the stock chart isn't necessarily uh excited about those words. If you think about the business that they're in and what's going on behind the scenes, you know, they're winding down their relationship with their biggest customer, which is Amazon. And so I think investors are questioning what happens when one of the biggest package shippers in America increasingly becomes its own delivery competitor. Because now Amazon is delivering I believe the number, don't quote me, I believe it's something like they're delivering about 85% of their own packages or they expect to deliver 85 to 91% of their own packages by 2029. So I mean they're increasingly taking delivery into their own hands. Then you have to factor in that diesel hit a record high of 5.85 cents a gallon, almost $6 a gallon. And so that doesn't help a business whose business is having trucks on the road and flying airplanes to deliver packages. And you really have to ask yourself, is there another reason for e-commerce or deliveries or packages to boom if you've lost your biggest e-commerce uh client, which is Amazon, and you're winding that down. So, what is going to help packages and delivery pick up? I don't know that we have an answer for that. And I think that's what you're seeing in the stock. You also have a double top that happened around the 118 area. But more importantly, this stock has just broken down below the 200 day moving averages. Then all the moving averages are crossing down. It's just not looking good technically. And I also don't have a fundamental story or a business story to say this is why shipping and packages are going to increase for these guys. Here's who they're going to pick up that's going to be the next Amazon to turn it around. So, I don't I don't I don't see Let me
目前，他们正在削减成本以达到业绩目标，但到了某个时候，你能削减的成本是有限的，然后你就必须争取新业务。我看不到新业务会从哪里来。
Right now, they're cutting costs to make their numbers, but at some point, there's only so much cost that you can cut and then you have to pick up new business. I don't see where the new business is going to come from.
好的，Rick。那么，当我们看UPS这里的技术面时，你能看到我之前强调的那种动能丧失，那是在他们发布了更强的财报、并表示下半年对他们来说前景光明之后。但正如Jason所强调的，也许市场知道一些管理层没有告诉我们的事情。
All right, Rick. So, as we look at the technicals here for UPS, you can see that loss of momentum that I was highlighting after they had uh their stronger earnings report and said that the second half of the year was looking bright for them. But as Jason highlighted, maybe the market knows something management isn't telling us.
是的，这里可能正在走低，重要的水平位。112 是财报缺口的起点。109 是缺口后的高点，然后这里还有一个接近 107 的高点。近期低点在 99，然后这里还有一个大约 94 附近的双底。
来看移动平均线，我们的 5 日线最近，目前在 100.85 处可以看到它。RSI 上跌破绿色趋势线也让我们再次相当接近超卖区域。现在我们还可以看到成交量分布给出的控制点在 9645。所以那可能是一个值得关注的重要支撑区域。
Yes, perhaps trending lower here, important horizontal levels. 112 is the earnings gap beginning. 109 is the post gap highs and then another high point here near 107. Recent lows at 99 and then also a double bottom here near about 94. To think about our moving averages, our 5day is the closest 100.85 is where we can see that one registering right now. a slip below our green trend line on the RSI as well is putting us uh rather close to the oversold area once more. Now we can also see our volume profile gives us our point of control at 9645. So that could be a significant supportive area to watch out for.
再次强调，期权会是你的朋友。这正是高级期权策略站在你这边的地方。我会把这看作做一个裸看涨价差。再次说明，我不想把 UPS 排除在外，但我就是看不到它有多少上涨的理由。并不是说它一定会下跌。我只是看不到它有多少上涨的理由。
Once again, options are going to be your friend. This is where advanced option strategies are on your side. I would look at this as doing a bare call spread. Again, I don't want to count UPS out, but I just don't see much reason for it to go higher. Not necessarily saying it's going to go lower. I just don't see much reason for it to go higher.
所以，我看的是一个短期，我说短期是指 36 天，2026 年 10 月 16 日、105 行权价的看涨期权。你要卖出那一张。显然，你要有覆盖。所以，你要往外 10 个点，买入 115 行权价的看涨期权。
在市场开盘前，你能拿到大约 95 的权利金。可能略低一些，因为该股今天上涨了一点，当日涨 75 美分，但你的盈亏平衡点在 105.90。所以基本上 36 天里，你投入 10 美元的风险。你可以赚到大约 9% 的回报。
And so, I'm looking at a short-term, when I say short-term, 36 days, the October 16th, 2026 uh 105 strike price call. You want to sell that one. Obviously, you want to be covered. So, you want to go 10 points out and buy the 115 strike price call. you were getting about a 95 credit for that before the market open. It might be slightly lower because the stock um is up a little bit, 75 cents on the day, but your break evens at 105.90. So basically for 36 days, you put $10 at risk. You can make about a 9% return.
再次说明，该股没有多少上涨的理由，但即使它上涨，你也有一个内置的 5 美元缓冲，这一点我喜欢。所以你不必 100% 正确。该股可以上涨，只要它不要涨太多、超过 5 美元；该股可以持平或下跌，你仍然能在这笔交易中拿到那 9% 的回报。
Again, not much reason that the stock will go higher, but even if it does, you have a built-in $5 cushion, which I like. So you don't have to be 100% right. stock could go up long as it doesn't go up too much past $ five dollar stock could stay the same or go down you're still going to bring home that 9% return on this trade
显然，我的判断错误水平是，如果该股突破 200 日移动平均线，如果出于某种原因我们迎来一波不错的牛市行情，你要平掉这笔交易，承担小幅亏损。不过我仍然不认为那有可能发生。
and obviously my I'm wrong level if the stock breaks above the 200 day moving average you know if for some reason we get a nice bull run you want to shut the trade down take a small loss I still don't see that potentially happening though
好，UPS 在本次交易时段小幅走高，目前逆整体市场趋势，我们上涨约 0.8%，正好位于每股 100 美元。
all right UPS a little higher on the session though right now bucking the overall market trend we're up about 810 of a percent sitting exactly at $100 a share.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $UPS 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。