Visa在当前水平是强劲买入标的,鉴于其竞争护城河和估值,超过监管风险。
逐段跳播
接下来我要重点介绍的是Visa。这是一个有趣的情况,因为我计算出Visa的上涨空间仅为4%左右,我计算出的公允价值为396美元,而当前市场价格为381美元。
The next stock I'm going to highlight is Visa. And this is an interesting situation because I've only calculated an upside of about 4% for Visa as I calculated a fair value of $396 and the current market price is $381.
但Visa是世界上少数几个“名人堂”级别的企业之一,即使我能以公允价值买入Visa股票,我也会觉得自己捡到了便宜。但能以4%的折扣买入,我认为这是额外的收获,是锦上添花。
But Visa is one of the few Hall of Fame businesses in the world where I would feel like I'm getting a good deal even if I could buy Visa stock at a fair price. But to be able to buy it at a 4% discount, I think is gravy. It's icing on the cake.
它是世界上利润最高的企业之一。如果以10年为期衡量,而不是以一个季度或一年来衡量,它是世界上利润最高的企业。我喜欢Visa的几点是它的双向网络。这个网络是经过几十年建立起来的。
在消费者方面,全球流通的Visa卡超过40亿张。然后是接受Visa作为支付方式的商户数量。这种双向网络是一个强大的竞争优势,任何新进入者都极难复制。
It's one of the most profitable businesses in the world. It is the most profitable business in the world if we measure over a 10-year period and not over one quarter or one year. A couple of things I love about Visa is its two-way network. It's built over decades. The consumer side where over four billion Visa cards are outstanding around the world. And then the number of merchants that accept Visa as a payment method. That two-way network is a strong competitive advantage that will be extremely difficult for any newcomer to replicate.
其次,我喜欢这个行业受到抑制的竞争。事实上,竞争受到如此抑制,以至于监管机构指责Visa和万事达卡相互勾结,以维持高费率并保持低折扣,从投资者的角度来看,这是一件好事。
Secondly, I love the restrained competition in the industry. Competition is so restrained in fact that regulators have accused Visa and Mastercard of colluding with each other to keep rates elevated and keep discounts low and that's a good thing from an investor viewpoint.
一些看跌因素是,世界各地的监管机构对Visa和万事达卡越来越敌视,因为它们是美国公司,而由于唐纳德·特朗普总统设置的贸易壁垒和不断增加的贸易壁垒,世界其他地区目前非常讨厌美国,因此监管机构对美国公司(包括Visa和万事达卡)越来越敌视。
A couple of bearish factors is regulators around the world are becoming more hostile against Visa and Mastercard being that they are US-based companies and the rest of the world pretty much hates America right now because of the trade barriers and increasing trade barriers instituted by President Donald Trump and so regulators are becoming more hostile against American companies including Visa and Mastercard.
第二个看跌因素是创新者、稳定币、加密货币等,它们旨在从这个利润丰厚的行业中分得一杯羹。但尽管存在这些因素,我认为Visa是一个绝佳的买入机会。我的投资组合中持有Visa股票,而且我有兴趣增持。
The second bearish factor is innovators, stable coins, cryptocurrencies, etc. that are aiming to take their share of this very lucrative industry. But despite those factors, I think Visa is an excellent buying opportunity. I own Visa stock in my portfolio and I'm interested in adding more.
麦当劳和Visa一样,是一只很少以相对于其公允价值估计如此大的折扣交易的股票。
McDonald's, like Visa, is a stock that rarely trades at this much of a discount compared to its fair value estimate.
这个频道对 $V 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。