相较 Mastercard，Visa 因利润率更优、且估值相对 DCF 更具吸引力而更受青睐。
逐段跳播
Visa 和 Mastercard 是全球最具主导地位的金融服务公司之一。更特别的是，它们彼此之间并不激烈竞争。事实上，它们之间的竞争如此微弱，以至于监管机构指控它们相互串通。
Visa and Mastercard are among the most dominant financial services companies in the world. What makes it even more special is that they do not compete fiercely with each other.
In fact, the competition between them is so weak that regulators have accused them of colluding with each other.
但这对投资者来说是好消息，因为这给整个行业带来了显著且不断增长的盈利能力。综合以上所有因素，在当前市场价格下，这两家公司中哪一家是更值得买入的股票？这正是我想在本视频中回答的问题。
But this was great news for investors, because it led to significant and increasing profitability for the sector as a whole. Taking all of that into account, which of these two companies is the better stock to buy now at current market prices?
This is the question I want to answer in this video.
过去十年，Visa 和 Mastercard 在业务增长方面表现相当成功。
Visa and Mastercard have been successful in growing their businesses well over the past decade.
Visa 的收入从 2017 年的 150 亿美元增长到 445 亿美元，十年间几乎增长了两倍。这两家公司通过其金融网络促成交易来产生收入。每一笔使用其网络完成的交易，都会为 Visa 或 Mastercard 带来一笔小额费用，外加交易总额的一定百分比。
Visa's revenues grew from $15 billion in 2017 to $44.5 billion, nearly tripling in a decade. These two companies generate their revenue by facilitating transactions through their financial network.
Each transaction made using their network generates a small fee for Visa or Mastercard in addition to a percentage of the total transaction value.
这使得两家公司得以随着整体经济的增长以及价格的上涨而实现非常好的增长。近期通胀上升对 Visa 和 Mastercard 来说是好消息，因为这意味着其全球客户的名义支出增加。
This allowed both companies to grow very well as a result of growth in the overall economy as well as growth in prices. The recent rise in inflation was good news for Visa and Mastercard because it means an increase in nominal spending by their customers around the world.
正如我提到的，它们之间有限的竞争带来了极佳的利润率，位居全球最高之列。
As I mentioned, the limited competition between them has led to excellent profit margins, among the best in the world.
就 Visa 而言，以 10 年为期衡量营业利润率，它是我所跟踪的任何公司中最高的，达到 67%。在最近几个季度，一些半导体公司，例如 Micron，实现了更高的营业利润率，但若以完整周期或完整十年来衡量，Visa 仍是无可争议的领先者。
As for Visa, when you measure the operating profit margin over 10 years, it is the best among any company I follow, at 67%. In recent quarters, some semiconductor companies such as Micron have achieved better operating profit margins, but when measured over a full cycle or a full decade, Visa remains the undisputed leader.
这些利润率很可能会保持不变或上升，因为这两家公司过去几十年在投资发展其网络时，已经完成了艰苦的工作。交易的两端，即消费者端和商户端，形成了一个积极且建设性的循环：商户需要接受这些卡，而众多商户接受 Visa 和 Mastercard 这一事实，使它们对消费者更具吸引力。
因此，更多消费者希望获得使用 Visa 和 Mastercard 网络的信用卡和借记卡，而由于更多消费者在使用它们，更多商户也愿意接受它们。
These margins are likely to remain the same or increase, because the hard work of these two companies has been done in past decades when they were investing to develop their networks.
The two sides of the transaction, the consumer side and the merchant side, have led to a positive and constructive cycle where merchants need to accept these cards, and the fact that many merchants accept Visa and Mastercard makes them more attractive to consumers.
Therefore, more consumers want to obtain credit and debit cards that use the Visa and Mastercard network, and because more consumers are using them, more merchants want to accept them.
交易者长期以来一直抱怨，这两家公司彼此不竞争，因此费用高于它们若相互竞争并降低价格时本应达到的水平。但现实中这并没有发生。
Traders have long complained that these two companies do not compete with each other, and therefore the fees are higher than they would have been if they had competed and lowered prices. But that didn't happen in reality.
监管机构曾试图干预，迫使这些公司更积极地竞争，但这实际上只是通过对这些公司的运营施加一些法律费用和罚款而取得了一些成效。
Regulators have tried to intervene to force these companies to compete more aggressively, but this has only really succeeded by imposing some legal fees and fines on these companies' operations.
讽刺的是，它们的股价估值几乎完全相同。Visa 和 Mastercard 的股价对应的预期市盈率为 24。这低于过去几年这些股票按该指标交易的平均估值。
Ironically, their shares are trading at almost identical valuations. Visa and Mastercard shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24. This is lower than the average valuation at which these shares have traded according to this metric over the past few years.
这两家公司面临的风险都在上升。主要风险之一是，全球各地的监管机构和政府对包括 Visa 和 Mastercard 在内的美国金融网络变得更加敌视，一些政府已采取措施，试图使其经济与 Visa 和 Mastercard 网络脱钩。
The risks are increasing for both of these companies. One of the main risks is that regulators and governments around the world have become more hostile toward US-based financial networks, including Visa and Mastercard, and some governments have taken steps to try to decouple their economies from the Visa and Mastercard network.
另一个日益增长的风险是，稳定币和加密货币等创新者可能超越 Visa 和 Mastercard，抢占这一由 Visa 和 Mastercard 主导了数十年的网络的市场份额。
Another growing risk is that innovators such as stablecoins and cryptocurrencies may overtake Visa and Mastercard and capture a market share of this network that has been dominated by Visa and Mastercard for many decades.
我也喜欢用贴现现金流模型来看估值，根据这一估算，我计算出Visa股票今天的价值为377美元。这略高于当前364美元的市场价格。
I also like to look at the valuation using the discounted cash flow model, and based on this estimate, I calculated that the value of Visa stock is $377 today. This is slightly higher than the current market price of $364.
因此，鉴于Visa实现了更好的营业利润率，其增长速度相比Mastercard更慢，而且相比Mastercard机会更少。
Therefore, given that Visa achieves a better operating profit margin, its growth rate is slower compared to Mastercard and it has fewer opportunities compared to Mastercard.
不过，如果我今天必须在这两家公司之间做出选择，我会买入Visa而不是Mastercard。但你不必做出那个选择。你可以两家都持有。事实上，我就是这么做的。我的投资组合中同时持有Visa和Mastercard的股票。
However, if I had to choose between these two companies today, I would buy a Visa instead of a Mastercard. But you don't have to make that choice. You can own both. In fact, that's what I did.
I own Visa and Mastercard shares in my investment portfolio.
我认为这是两家非常优秀的公司。事实上，我认为它们可以被称为“名人堂”级别的公司，而且它们的交易价格相对合理，这使它们成为投资者的绝佳长期投资标的。
I think these are two excellent companies. In fact, I think they could be called "Hall of Fame" companies, and they trade at relatively fair prices, making them an excellent long-term investment for investors.
这个频道对 $V 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。