VAT是一家运营良好的卫星公司,拥有强劲的自由现金流和审慎的债务偿还;尽管存在杠杆和Starlink竞争,12倍EBITDA的估值具有吸引力。
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Vat。我不知道这家公司是做什么的。从没听说过。让我们看看。共享屏幕。你得给我总结一下这家公司。我从来没见过。所以我设定为信息技术公司,在美国和国际上提供宽带和通信产品及服务。
它分为通信服务、国防和先进技术等部分。提供基于卫星的宽带、窄带通信解决方案,宽带服务包括宽带互联网、语音协议、固定和移动宽带。好的,所以这家公司还提供机上连接、窄带安全、运营数据和其他补充服务。
嗯,有趣的卫星通信公司,像 Starlink 的竞争对手。好的,让我们看看我们有什么。所以,如果是 Starlink 的竞争对手,他们真的发射了吗?他们拥有天上的卫星吗?多品牌飞机?
Vat. I don't know what this company does. Never heard of it. Let's take a look. Share the screen. I You have to summarize the the business for me. I've never never seen it. So I set information technology company engages in the provision of broad broadband and communication products and service the United States internationally. It operates in segments and communication services, defense and advanced technologies. offer satellitebased broadband narrowband communication solutions, broadband services including broadband internet, voice protocol, fixed and mobile broadband. Okay, so the company also provides inflight connectivity, narrowband safety, operating data and other uh complimentary services. Mult interesting satellite communication company like Starlink competitor. Okay, let's uh let's see what we got. So, if it's Starling competitor, do they actually launching? Do they own the satellites up there multibrand aircraft?
看,让我们看看我们有什么。所以,我们大致看一下收入。我的意思是,对于一家成长型公司,一开始,5% 和 7% 的营收。哦,你看不到。让我把我这张傻脸移开。嗯,全屏共享。所以,一开始,你说刚刚发射了两颗巨大的。
好的。所以,收入增长即将到来,因为看起来过去几年收入增长连续为 5.5% 和 2.7%。嗯,你知道,他们应该更高。但如果他们刚刚发射了卫星,那么也许他们会有更多的增长。
See, let's see what we got. So, we'll kind of walk down revenues. I mean, for a growth company, just out of the gate, 5% and 7% topline revenue. Oh, you can't see. Let me get my stupid face out of the way. Uh, full screen share. So, right out of the gate, uh, you said just launched two huge. Okay. So, so revenue growth to come because it looks like last couple years revenue growth 5.5% 2.7% con consecutively. Um, you know, they should be going higher than that. But if they've just launched satellites, then maybe maybe they've got more growth coming.
33%的利润率,看起来相当稳定。好的,我假设一旦技术到位,研发费用就会很低。相对于Roblox,4.6亿收入对应2亿研发,对科技公司来说似乎合理。实际上营销费用很低,你喜欢看到这一点。
我记得贝索斯曾说过,如果你必须为产品做广告,那说明你没能创造出令人印象深刻的产品。所以,事实上这些人几乎不做广告却能产生这样的收入,这看起来不错。他们没有行政费用,它被埋在其他项目里,我不喜欢这样。
我得查看他们的10-K报告,才能弄清楚他们在行政上的实际支出。但他们去年实现了五年来的首次盈利。他们之前曾盈利,然后有一段时间亏损。好的,我假设他们在发行股票。让我们看看,加权平均股数。
看起来他们做了大动作,他专注于降低债务和增加自由现金流。是的,好的。所以,看起来他们发行了一些股票。如果他们试图回购债务,我们可能会在现金流量表中看到。发行股票,偿还债务。
33% margins. That seems pretty consistent. Okay. I'm assuming once the technology is up there, it R&D R&D is low. Certainly relative to Roblox, 200 million on 4.6 billion of revenue seems reasonable for a technology company. actually marketing expenses low. You like seeing that. I think Bezos once said that if you have to advertise your product, you failed at at creating a an impressive product. So, fact these guys advertise almost nothing and can generate this revenue. That seems nice. They don't have any admin costs. It's buried in this other bucket which I don't like. will have to pull up their 10K to go through it to really pull out how much they're spending in in admin. But they're they were profitable last year for the first time in five years. They were profitable earlier and then they went negative for a while. Okay. And I'm assuming they're issuing stock. Let's see. Weight average stock. Looks like they made a big He's focusing lower debt increasing free cash. Yeah. Okay. So, it looks like they've issued some stock. If they're trying to buy back debt, we'll probably see that in the cash flow statement. Issued stock. Buying down debt.
EBITDA为14亿,收入46亿,这太疯狂了,利润率高得离谱。是的,大约30%,1400除以46亿,是的,30%,心算没问题。这非常强劲。
Uh EBITDA 1.4 billion of earnings. What? On four 4.6 billion. That's crazy. Crazy high margin. Okay. Is that Yeah, like 30% one, 1400 on what I say 4.6. Yeah, 30%. Mental math checks out. That's very strong.
让我们看看资产负债表,做个老式嗅觉测试。资产负债表是时点数,损益表和现金流量表是期间数。所以我们只看最近期间。他们有17亿现金,应收账款、存货、预付费用,看起来相当干净。31亿固定资产,如果你想看到他们在建造卫星,这里应该很重。
无形资产,商誉很薄,我喜欢看到这一点,我不喜欢看到大量商誉,所以这很好。无形资产,总资产150亿,其中75%是流动资产和固定资产,这对我来说闻起来很干净。当前营运资本,流动负债13亿,大约是流动资产的一半,本·格雷厄姆会喜欢。
长期债务,这就是你的长期债务,62亿。资本租赁,其他非流动负债,那可能是养老金,也可能是其他东西。负债总额100亿,这很多。所以,如果我们只关注这里,银行债务,仅银行债务62亿,EBITDA为14.62亿,杠杆率4.4倍,这相当高。
Let's see what balance sheet looks like. Give it the old smell test. Balance sheet, right, is point in time. Income statement, cash flow is overtime. So, we're just going to look more recent period. They have 1.7 billion in cash on hand. Receivables, inventory, prepaid. This looks pretty clean. 3.1 billion property, plant, equipment. You want to see them if they're building satellites. It should be pretty heavy here. Intangibles. Goodwill is thin. I like seeing that. You don't I don't like seeing a lot of goodwill. So, that's good. Intangibles, 15 billion of total assets, 10 of which 75% is current asset and property and plant equipment. That smells pretty clean to me. Current working capital, current liability 1.3. Matt is is half of current assets. Ben Graham would like that. Long-term debt. Here you go. Here's your long-term debt. 6.2 billion. Capital leases, other noncurrent liabilities. That could be pensions. That could be other stuff there. It's 10 billion of liability. That's a lot. 10. Uh, so long-term. If we just focus here for a second, the bank debt, just the bank debt, 6.2 billion on EBITDA of 1462 on 14, that's 4.4 times leverage. That's pretty high.
让我们检查他们支出的利率。这是利息费用,看起来异常低。他们有60亿债务,只支付6亿利息,只有3%。他们没有支付全部利息,这是净额。我猜他们有现金。我在做的是,看利息费用,与未偿债务比较,相除得到利率,大约是3%。
我猜资产负债表上的现金支付了部分利息,因为3%不可能,他们的债务不可能那么便宜。但好的一面是,看起来他们至少能负担得起这笔债务,所以可以继续维持业务。但如果收入稍微下降,他们就没有太多缓冲。
他们创造了2.74亿的营业收入,其中超过一半,三分之二用于支付利息,甚至没有偿还债务。所以我认为,如果他们不能增加收入并快速增长,你可能面临额外的稀释来偿还债务。
Let's check the interest rate that they're expensing. Here's uh interest expense. It seems oddly low. They've got six billion of interest and they pay only six billion. It's only 3%. They're not paying full interest on their It's net. I guess they have cash. What I'm what I'm doing is I'm looking at the interest expense and I'm comparing it to the debt they have outstanding and just dividing the two to get an interest rate. This is roughly 3%. I guess the cash that they have on the balance sheet is paying for some of the interest they have because three, there's no way their debt is that cheap. But on the plus side, it does look like they can at least afford this debt so they can continue to maintain the business a little bit. If income falls a little bit though, they don't have much cushion here. They're making 274 million of operating income. half more than half of that twothirds of that is going just to interest not even paying down the debt. So I think there's if they can't grow revenue more and grow revenue quickly you could be facing additional dilution to pay down that debt.
让我们看现金流量表,看看我们得到什么。股票薪酬8100万,这没问题,我喜欢看到。其余看起来没问题。所以他们从经营中产生了16.6亿现金。哦,顺便说一句,我搞错了,我道歉。我忘了这家公司有很多折旧。
我之前说的关于损益表,如果营业收入稍微减少,损益表会转为负,因为利率。然而,从现金生成来看,因为他们有大量折旧,他们实际产生的现金更高,对吧?因为折旧在损益表中列支。所以营业收入会低一点。
他们产生了16亿现金,这是在支付债务现金利息之后。所以,他们确实有很多现金。他们花了10亿资本支出,这没问题。那仍然留下6亿自由现金流,在资本支出后用于偿还债务。你在这里,他们偿还了8亿债务,只借了1.75亿。
所以大约6亿的偿还发生了,他们只回购了一点股票。所以你说得对,他们明智地使用现金。我认为管理层是审慎的,我认为这是正确的举措。你的杠杆率是4.4倍,他们用自由现金流偿还债务。此外,他们有足够的资金将卫星送入轨道,花费10亿,希望能继续提高收入。
所以,总的来说,非常有趣,非常有趣的成长型公司。
So let's go to cash flow statement see what we get stockbased comp $81 million that's fine I like to see that rest of that looks fine. So they made they made 1.6 six billion in in cash from operating the business. Oh, I I was mistaken by the way. I I apologize. I forgot this this has this company has a lot of depreciation. What I said earlier is um regarding the income statement, the income statement would turn negative. If they if operating income gets a little smaller, then income statement is going to turn negative because interest rate. However, from cash generation because they have so much depreciation, the actual cash they generate is higher, right? Because depreciation expensed on the income statement. So, the income state the operating income be a little lower. They made 1.6 billion in cash. Um, that's after paying cash interest on their debt. So, they do have a lot of cash. They spent a billion dollars in capex. Fine. That still left 600 million in free cash flow after capex to pay down the debt. And you're right here. They paid down 800 million in debt. They borrowed only 175. So roughly 600 million of buy down happened and they pot back just a little bit of stock. So you're right, they are using their cash wisely. I think management is prudent here. I think that's the right move. You're at 4.4. four leverage ratio. They're taking their free cash. They're buying down debt. Plus, they have enough to be able to put satellites, I guess, back in orbit at a at a billion to hopefully continue to move income higher. So, overall, very interesting, very interesting growth company.
让我们看看估值。只有12倍EBITDA,有趣。自由现金流收益率5%。这是一只非常有趣的股票。谢谢你的提示。我可能会把它加入现金流俱乐部。卫星公司,似乎管理良好。我不知道他们将如何与Starlink竞争。
我认为那些家伙有巨大的先发优势,并且控制着进入太空的方法。如果你必须付钱给你的竞争对手把你的资产送入太空,那很难竞争,但非常有趣的公司。谢谢。
Um, let's see what they're what the valuation is. Only 12 times EBITDA. Interesting. free cash flow yield of five. That is a very interesting stock. Thank you for for the uh the note. I'll probably put that one in the cash flow club. Satellite company that appears to be well wellrun. I don't know how they're going to compete against Starlink. I think those guys have um massive first mover advantage and also control the method to get up there. Um kind of hard to compete if you have to pay your competitor to put your own assets in space, but um very interesting company. Thank you.
好的,还有其他人吗?我们还有几个。哦,他们有巨大的政府合同。是的,我打赌他们有。嗯,问题是,我的意思是12倍看起来相当便宜,如果他们能得到他们的,有趣的看涨,而且仍然很便宜。哇,一定是在三月份股价9美元,一年半内涨了大约10倍。
哇,那一定非常便宜。我猜它会达到负收益,所以当时更难审查。有趣。为他们高兴。哦,是的,CFO做好了他的工作,他专注于自由现金流。这将帮助他们偿还债务。一旦他们有了自由现金流,他们就可以真正开始投资,希望将资产送入太空或做其他非常有趣的事情。
我认为用太空卫星取代电信公司的想法非常有趣。他们总共有数万亿美元的收入,如果你能有一个资产,永久覆盖全球,在飞机上、船上、游轮上,无论你去哪里,没有死角,我认为你可以吞噬那个旧基础设施,它是蜂窝网络的股息机器,价值数万亿美元的收入,而且这不是投机性的,我们都在用手机套餐支付。
所以,这实际上只是用一种服务交换另一种服务。非常有趣。谢谢你的评论。这是一只好股票。有趣。感谢你登录。
All right. Did someone anything else? Uh, we got a couple other Oh, they have huge government contracts. Yeah, I bet I bet they do. Um, yeah. The question is what I mean 12 times seems pretty cheap if they can get their um interesting look at the runup and it's still really cheap. Wow. It must have been I mean back in March it's set at $9 a share and it's it's roughly 10xed up in a year and a half. Wow. It must have been dirt cheap. I guess it would hit negative earnings so it would have been harder to review back then. Interesting. Good for them. Oh yeah, it's a good thing that the CFO is doing his job. He's focusing on free cash flow. That's going to, you know, that's, you know, that's going to help them pay down that debt. And then once they have the free cash flow, they can really start investing it hopefully and putting assets in space or doing other very interesting things. Um I think the idea of replacing the telecom companies is from from satellites in space is a very interesting one. uh they collectively have trillions of revenue that if you can have an asset that has coverage permanently all over the planet in airplanes on boats on cruise ships wherever you go no dead spot I think you can gobble up that uh that old infrastructure uh which is a dividend machine for um cellular network and uh and that's worth trillions of revenue and it's not speculative that we're all paying for with with cell phone plans. So, it's literally just exchanging one service for the other. Very interesting. Thanks for the comment. It's a good stock. Interesting. I appreciate you logging in.
这个频道对 $VAT 的历次判断
Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。