VC 当前价格具吸引力，因其收益率为 7% 且估值低于账面价值，属于中等风险机会，回报率可能为 7%。
逐段跳播
有很多关于VC物业的评论，我必须说，它看起来不错，收益率超过7%。如果你看VC，你拥有的是博彩物业，拉斯维加斯，63处博彩物业，40处其他体验式物业，拉斯维加斯的Caesar Palace，MGM Grand，都是些有意思的情况。
a lot of comments about VC properties and I must say it looks good with a 7 plus% yield. If you look at VC, you own the gaming properties, Las Vegas, 63 gaming properties, 40 other experiential properties, Caesar Palace, Las Vegas, MGM Grand, all interesting situations.
你看股价，已经接近几年来的低点。股息收益率是7%。但说到投资房地产，是的，关键在于拥有那些物业，但问题也在于，你如何拥有它，以及你为此付出的价格是多少？
You look at the stock price, it is close to a few years lows. the dividend yield is 7%. But when it comes to investing in real estate, yes, it is about owning those properties, but it is also the question, how do you own that and what is the price you're paying for that?
我们来讨论一下。如果看这家公司，最近一次财报，一切看起来都非常好。100%的入住率，长期租约，一切稳定、有规划，贷款与净杠杆比率低于五，这在我见过的一些解读中属于较好的一侧。
Let's discuss. If we look at the company, the last earnings, everything looks very good. 100% occupancy rate, long-term leases, everything stable, planned, loan to net leverage ratio below five, which is on the better side of some reads that I have seen.
权益290亿。然后如果看数字，非常稳定。如果看股息，过去几个季度稳定，盈利也稳定。一切都像房地产应该有的那样稳定和安全。
Equity 29 billion. Then if we look at the numbers, very stable. If we look at the dividend, stable over the last few quarters, earnings also stable. everything like real estate should be stable and safe.
如果看资产负债表，290亿权益，与市值相比，我们实际上是在低于物业账面价值买入。一切都非常好，这是我喜欢的，每一笔交易都展示出来，每一处房地产物业看起来都稳定，合伙关系，16个租户，好吧，Caesars和MGM，他们不可能只在一个物业上违约。
他们必须在所有物业上违约。所以这是有帮助的一点，指引是针对一些增长或无增长，稳定，我们可以说是为了稳定。
If we look at the balance sheet, 29 billion equity, compare it to the market cap, we are practically buying below book value of the properties. Everything is really nicely and this is something I like shown every deal, every real estate property looks stable, partnerships, 16 tenants, okay, Caesars and MGMs, they cannot default on one property. they have to default on all the properties. So that is something that helps the guidance there is for some or no growth stable we can say for stability.
现在由于对单一客户的集中度，穆迪不能给它高于较低投资级的评级。但好吧，债务甚至没那么夸张，所有债务都有详细讨论。44，4.5的有效利率。
Now because of the concentration with one customer Moody's cannot give it better than a lower investment grade. But okay, the debt is not even that crazy and all the debt is discussed in detail. 44 4.5 effective rate.
然而，说到利率以及为什么股价下跌，有一点。不是4.5。下一次重新定价将在5.5、5.7，取决于利率走向。
However, something when it comes to interest rates and why the stock is down. It's not 4.5. The next repricing will be at 5.5, 5.7 depending on where interest rates go.
好吧。但既有博彩业务管线，Caesar's forum，正在建设的东西。这是非常重要的一点。他们有随通胀调整的年度递增条款，但并不夸张。他们需要等几年才能重新谈判，而且它略低于真实通胀，略低于真实利率。所以这是股价下跌的另一个原因。
Okay. But there is both the gaming pipeline, Caesar's forum, something building. This is something very important. They have an annual escalator for inflation, but it is not crazy. They need to wait a few years to renegotiate that and it's a little bit below true inflation, a little bit below true interest rates. So that is another reason why the stock is down.
第三个原因是，这是Caesar's Entertainment破产时分拆出来的。房地产中的价值保留了下来。他们也挺过了疫情。非常重要。所以很有意思。他们有自己的历史。
A third reason is that this is a spin-off from when Caesar's Entertainment went bankrupt. The value in the real estate remained. They also survived the pandemic. Very important. So interesting. There have been they have their history.
但好吧，现在Caesar's Entertainment将被收购，这对华尔街是另一个负面因素，因为它将不需要报告数字。所以我们不会知道租户的健康状况，但那样的话就杠杆更高、风险更大，不过房地产不会消失。
But okay, now Caesar's Entertainment will be acquired, which is another negative for Wall Street because it will not need to report numbers. So we will not know the health of the tenants but that is something then it's more levered more risky but the real estate is not going anywhere.
解释正在发生什么的是利率上升，利息成本上升。未来几年可能会有增长。两个租户。好吧。通胀递增条款太低，且上限为3%、3.5%。私人租户2025年在拉斯维加斯的客流下降。
The thing that explains what's going on is interest rates up, interest costs up. There might go to growth over the next few years. Two tenants. Okay. Inflation escalators are too low and capped at three 3.5%. Private tenants traffic down in Las Vegas in 2025.
如果客流上升，你在评论里告诉我，你这个赌徒。但好吧，有什么可喜欢的？关键问题是它对你值多少。股息7%。它会增长吗？也许明年不会。也许未来几年不会。长期来看，尤其是如果利率下降，那么它会继续增长。
You let me know in the comments if traffic is up, you gambler. But okay, what's there to like? The key question is what it's worth to you. dividend 7%. Will it grow? Maybe not next year. Maybe not the next few years. Over the long term, especially if interest rates go down, then it will keep on growing.
记住，你们中有些人必须为股息缴税。有些人不。在分析这个时，这是一个非常重要的因素。如果股价走低，你总是可以再投资，长期建立更多的现金流。如果好时光到来，低利率，那就继续支付。当收益率到4%、5%时，你就卖出。考虑到稳定性，考虑到一切，你就在这附近操作。
Keep in mind, some of you have to pay taxes on the dividends. Some don't. That's a very important factor when it comes to analyzing this. If the stock goes lower, you can always reinvest and build more of the stream of cash flows of the long term. If good times come, low interest rates and then keep on paying. When it comes to four, five% yield, you sell. You play around that given the stability, given everything.
我把它放在这个象限里。7%的可能回报，中等风险，为什么不呢？然后你必须看看它是否适合你。通胀保护不是即时的，但有那些物业。有递增条款。关键风险是拉斯维加斯博彩杠杆租户，它必须一直运转，但价值在那里。
I'll put it here in the quadrant. 7% likely return, medium risk, why not? And then you have to see how it fits you. Inflation protection is not immediate, but there are the properties. There is the escalator. The key risk is Vegas gambling lever tenants that has to work all the time but the value is there.
再解释一下为什么股价下跌。股息收益率原来是4%，现在是7%。10年期国债原来是1%，现在是4.7%。所以加上300个基点，收益率上升了，国债上升了，因此要求的收益率也上升了。
Just another explanation of why the stock is down. The dividend yield was 4% now it's 7%. The 10-year treasury was 1% now it's 4.7%. So plus 300 basis points the yield went up treasury went up and consequently the required yield went up.
我们无法预测利率，连Wars也预测不了。但我们必须知道的是，这7%的真实投资如何与你的投资组合、你的财务目标相匹配，然后你再看在这个价格上应该往你的组合里加多少。
We cannot predict interest rates. Not even Wars knows. But what we have to know is how does real investing this 7% fit your portfolio, your financial goals and then you see how much of it to add at this price to your portfolio.
请记住，如果10年期美国国债的利率从4.7升到6.7，VC的股息率就会从7升到9、10%。该股还会再跌30%。这是必然的。
Keep in mind if interest rates on the 10-year Treasury go from 4.7 to 6.7, dividend yield on VC goes from 7 to 9 10%. The stock goes down another 30%. That's a given.
但你必须投资。如果那种情况发生，我会买得更多，积累更多。这是投资时值得考虑的事情。
But you have to invest. Okay. If that happens, I will be buying more, accumulating more. That's something to think about when it comes to investing.
这个频道对 $VC 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。