Valero 将维持上行动能，因炼油行业面临结构性挑战，且再平衡需要数年时间。
逐段跳播
不过，Valero在本交易日仍走高。你看，Marley。是的，问题在于Valero今年表现实在太出色了。不用说，正如你指出的，其中一些指标是原因，但Valero的炼油业务也是原因。
我认为，当你从更长、更宏观一点的角度来看Valero时，这正是它独特的地方，也是它今年迄今如此成功的原因，我认为这还会继续。目前确实有迹象显示炼油业务面临挑战，而这是需要数年才能平衡的事情，我认为这也是一个因素，说明即使我们看到原油和原油产品出现一些抛售，Valero仍将继续保持这种上行势头。
Yet, Valero is still higher on the session. There you go, Marley. Yeah, I mean the thing is is Valero has just been had such an incredible year. Needless to say, and some of those metrics as you pointed out are are the reasons, but also it's the refining aspect of Valero. think that's the the uh unique aspect here when you look at Valero from a long a little bit bigger broader picture and why they've been so successful so far this year and I think that that's going to continue there's certainly indications that re refining is challenged right now and that's something that takes years to uh uh balance and I think that that's a factor why Valero I think will continue to maintain this upward momentum even if we do see crude and crude products come under a little bit of selling
对。标普指数中其他炼油股也类似。Valero、Marathon Petroleum和Philip 66的表现远远超过能源板块的其他股票。
Right. Similar for the the other uh refining names in the S&P. Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Philip 66 far far outperformance above the rest of the energy sector here.
所以，这里呈现的是一个上升楔形形态。我们可以看到，在两条边界线之间，我们在40832见顶。随着交易时段开始升温，目前价格非常接近该水平。此前在373形成高点，随后向上跳空，接着出现一个低点，这里在351附近反复形成顶部。
从水平价格位的角度看，这些大致就是最值得关注的点位。
So, a rising wedge type shape here. We can see between our two boundary lines, we topped out at 40832. Very close to that level right now as our uh trading day begins to to gain some steam here.
Uh 373 uh high before a gap to the upside and then a subsequent low, a repeated ceiling here near 351. Those are kind of the closest points of interest from a horizontal price level perspective here.
所以，这里的移动平均线情况相当不同。它们彼此相距很远，而且还在继续相互发散。最快的那条在最上方，最慢的那条在最下方，依次排列。因此，我们的5日EMA位于39804，可能是未来几天值得关注的潜在支撑位。
但我刚才描述的移动平均线整体状况，仍是一幅强势的图景。当行情放缓时，你要留意的是移动平均线相互靠拢、重新收敛，或者它们的斜率发生变化，或者出现强劲收于其中一些均线下方的情况。不过就目前而言，一切似乎仍更偏向上行。
So, our moving averages are quite different in this case here. They are far apart from each other. They're continuing to diverge from each other. The fastest one is at the top.
The slowest one's at the bottom in that order here. So, our 5-day EMA at 39804 could be a potential supportive point to watch out for in the coming days. But the the situation I just described with our moving average overall is a a picture of strength still.
What you'd be looking for as things slow down would be convergence of the moving averages back toward each other or for their slope to change or for strong closes below some of them.
So for now though, everything seems to be still more geared toward the upside.
RSI目前也支持这一看法。因为我们有一条向上倾斜的趋势线，我们正在向上突破那条红色的向下倾斜趋势线，而且我们处于超买区域，也有望创出一些新的相对高点。在趋势性市场中，超买通常被视为强势信号。
但你确实要留意任何背离，即RSI走低而价格走高。不过就目前来看，我们似乎有望突破此前的那些高点。所以，如果你看多这只股票，这正是你想看到的情况。
RSI is also supporting that idea at this time. Uh because we have an upward sloping trend line. We are breaking above a downward sloping trend line there in red and we are in the overbought area poised to make some new relative highs as well.
So overbought typically viewed as a sign of strength in a trending market. But you do want to be aware of uh any divergences where RSI is trending lower while price is trending higher.
For now though, it looks like we could be on pace to break above those previous highs here. So that would be what you'd want to see if you were bullish in this name.
所以这里的成交量分布又很不一样。现在我们很幸运，有一些非常清晰的节点。首先，这里有298到311这个区域，这里有341到355这个区域，然后这里还有一个较小的380到392。这些就是你可以看到与这些区间震荡区域相当吻合的密集成交区。
所以从成交量角度看，这基本就是你可能预期的情况。
So here our volume profile again much different. Now we have the luxury of some very clear nodes here. For starters, we have this area here between 298 to 311. here between 341 to 355 and then a smaller one here 380 to 392.
Those are the the heavy trading areas that you can see match up pretty cleanly with some of these rangebound areas. So pretty much what you might expect then from a trading volume perspective.
嗯，我认为动能会持续下去，所以今天的交易示例是买入该股，然后卖出一份1月看涨期权，即1月500看涨期权，大约比当前交易价高出近95美元。这让你能在未来四个月捕捉约25%的上行空间。
如果被行权，这确实有可能把税务事件推迟到2027年，如果这是1月份做出的决定，且价格确实涨到500以上。但我也想指出，正如Rick所指出的，当你从成交量角度看那些节点时，在我看来，如果未来几个月我们看到一些疲软，如果它确实盘整一下或失去一些动能，480，我认为，抱歉，是380，我认为那是一个存在一些支撑的水平。
所以，卖出那份1月500看涨期权，你能收到近20美元。这样就会把盈亏平衡点降到380附近。
Uh well I mean I think that the momentum is going to continue and so today's trade example is to buy the stock and then write a January call the January 500 call so about almost well about $95 above where it's currently trading.
Um and uh again that allows you to capture about 25% to the upside here over the next four months. uh it does create the possibility of uh moving a tax event into 2027 if they get called away if that's uh the decision that was made in January if we do trade above 500.
But also I want to point out as Rick pointed out when you look at those nodes from a volume standpoint to me if we do see a little weakness here over the next few months and if it does consolidate a little bit or lose some of its momentum 480 I think uh 380 excuse me is a level I think that that's a level where there is some support.
So again selling that January 500 call you collect almost $20 for that. So that would lower the break even somewhere around that 380 level.
这个频道对 $VLO 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。