VRT 基本面强劲，但股价已被高估，宜等待进一步下跌后再买入。
逐段跳播
Vertiv 的销售额较去年同期增长了 24%。最重要的是，公司宣布自由现金流为 9.25 亿，较去年同期增长 234%。
Vertiv's sales rose by 24% compared to the same quarter last year . Most importantly, the company announced free cash flow of 925 million, an increase of 234% compared to the same quarter last year .
本财年开局如此之好，以至于公司管理层正在上调他们对今年能够实现的目标的预期。此外，由于需求增加，他们正在提高资本支出，因为他们看到对其产品的需求不断增长，因此希望提供更多产品以满足这种日益增长的需求。
The fiscal year has started so well that the company's management team is raising its expectations for what they believe they can achieve this year. Also, as a result of increased demand, they are increasing capital expenditures because they see increasing demand for their products, so they want to provide more to meet that growing demand.
但这一切是否让 Vertiv 股票成为一个买入机会？Vertiv 的销售额多年来一直蓬勃发展，始于 2020 年，当时按 12 个月计算的销售额达到 40 亿美元。在过去 12 个月里，销售额几乎翻了一番，超过 114 亿。
But does all this make Vertiv stock a buying opportunity? Sales at Vertiv have flourished for many years now, starting in 2020 when sales reached $4 billion on a 12-month basis .
Sales have nearly doubled to more than 11.4 billion over the past 12 months.
如前所述，管理层预计好日子将继续，同时修正了他们对当前财年年度营收增长的预估。他们还在提高资本支出预算，以提供更多供应来满足不断上升的需求。
Management expects good times to continue, as previously mentioned, while revising their estimates for annual revenue growth in the current fiscal year. They are also increasing their capital expenditure budget to provide more supplies to meet rising demand.
至于 Vertiv，答案是肯定的，也是肯定的。过去 12 个月营业利润率达到 19.8%，较 2023 年营业利润率不足 12% 时增长了约 50%。
As for Vertief, the answer is yes and yes. The operating margin reached 19.8% over the past 12 months, an increase of approximately 50% compared to 2023 when the operating margin was less than 12%.
因此，销售增长带来盈利能力增长和利润率提升。这是公司产品和服务存在自然需求的有力证据。Vertiv 的情况并非如此。公司的营收增长在加快，与此同时，其利润率也在上升。这是公司产品和服务内生需求增长的真实迹象。
Therefore, sales growth leads to profitability growth and profit margins. This is strong evidence of the natural demand for the company's products and services. This is not what happens with Vertief.
The company's revenue growth is increasing, and at the same time, its profit margins are also increasing. This is a real sign of increased organic demand for the company's products and services.
对 Vertiv 而言，这一点同样适用。投入资本回报率也在改善，达到 24.2%，而 2020 年时为负值。因此，按预期市盈率来衡量估值时，它看起来是合理的。以 26 倍来看，它似乎估值合理。
回顾过去几年，这大致是该股按这一估值指标交易的平均水平。它在某些时候更高，在另一些时候更低。
And for Vertiv, this also applies . The return on invested capital is also improving to 24.2%, up from negative levels in 2020. So when measuring the valuation on a forward price-to-earnings basis, it seems reasonable.
It appears fairly valued at 26. This is roughly the average at which the stock has traded according to this valuation metric, looking back several years . It was higher at some times and lower at other times.
事实上，我大约一个月前评估过这家公司，当时其预期市盈率远高于今天。当时它在三十多倍，我警告投资者，一个月前它看起来并不是一个有吸引力的买入机会。
In fact, I evaluated this company about a month ago when its forward price-to-earnings ratio was much higher than it is today. It was in its thirties and I warned investors that it did not look like an attractive buying opportunity a month ago.
我希望你看了那个视频，并且没有买入 Vertiv，因为你现在可以以更有吸引力的价格买到它。在我评估该公司并认为其估值过高一个月后，该股下跌了 18.5%。
I hope that you watched that video and refrained from buying " Vertiv" because you can now get it at a much more attractive price. One month after I assessed the company and saw that it was overvalued, the stock fell by 18.5%.
更准确地说，我是在 2026 年 8 月 24 日做出这一评级的，将该公司归类为“持有”。因此，在当前这轮抛售、市场价格为 239 美元的情况下，我计算出的公允价值为 182 美元。
所以，尽管 Vertiv 的股票在上个月已经下跌了约 18%，我仍然认为它从这里还有约 24% 的下跌空间。
To be more precise, I made that classification on August 24, 2026, classifying the company as a "retain". So, with the current sell-off and the market price at $239, I calculated a fair value of $182.
Therefore, I still see a decline of approximately 24% in Vertief's stock from here, despite it having fallen by about 18% during the previous month.
因此，我将重申这一评估：在这些价格下，我不认为 Vertiv 是一个买入机会。在考虑以这些价位买入该股之前，我会等待股价再下跌约 15% 到 20%。
Therefore, I will reiterate this assessment that I do not see Vertief as a buying opportunity at these prices. I will wait for another decline of approximately 15 to 20% in the share price before I consider buying this stock at these levels.
观察点
这个频道对 $VRT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。