尽管业务模式相同、在墨西哥具备长期增长潜力，仍更倾向于持有 WALMEX 而非 WMT，因其估值更低（15倍 对 40倍）。
逐段跳播
有意思的是，如果你越过边境去墨西哥，你基本上可以买到 Walmart Mexico，它由 Walmart 拥有和控制，由 Walmart 的人经营，完全相同的商业模式，相同的专业能力，相同的技术诀窍，但处于年轻得多的阶段，前面大概还有数年、甚至数十年的增长。
Um interestingly, if you cross the border and you go to Mexico, you can basically buy Walmart Mexico, which is owned and controlled by Walmart, run by the Walmart people, exactly the same business model, uh the same expertise, the same know-how, but at a much like younger stage and probably like years, if not decades, of like growth ahead of it.
你可以想象，墨西哥零售市场的成熟度远低于美国。今天，墨西哥零售市场里不到一半属于他们所说的现代零售。它仍然在很大程度上由传统的夫妻杂货店、家庭经营的小店主导。
the Mexican retail market, as you can imagine, is a lot less mature than the US. Today, less than less than half of uh the US retail the Mexican retail market is like what they call like a modern retail.
It's still very much dominated by like traditional like bodega, you know, corner stores run by families.
而如果你看现代零售，Walmart 实际上拥有或控制着墨西哥现代零售中食品杂货 50% 的份额。它在墨西哥比在美国还要更占主导地位。
And if you look at uh modern retail, Walmart actually owns or controls 50% share of grocery in modern retail in Mexico. It's even more dominant than in the US.
而如果你看他们拥有的不同业态，你知道，超级中心，Walmart 在美国有 3,500 家超级中心，在墨西哥只有大约 350 家。Walmart 在美国有 600 家 Sam's Club，在墨西哥只有不到 100 家。
Uh and if you look at the different format they have, you know, the super centers, Walmart has 3,500 super centers in the US, it only has like 350 in Mexico. Walmart has 600 like Sam's Club in the US, it only has less than 100 in Mexico.
他们还有一种美国没有的业态，叫做 Bodega Aurrera，是一家硬折扣店，也做得非常好。
They also have a format that doesn't exist in the US called like Bodega Aurrera, which is a hard discounter that's also doing very well.
所以，你可以想象，在未来几年、未来十年里，Walmart 会在墨西哥继续开店很多年。而那些门店会不断吸引越来越多的消费者。因此，同店销售以中高个位数复利增长，而且它们应该会在未来很多年继续增长。
And so, you can imagine that over the next few years, over the next decade, Walmart's going to keep opening stores in Mexico for like many years to come. And those stores keep attracting more and more consumers.
And so, the same store sales are compounding, you know, like mid-high single digits, uh and they should keep growing for many years to come.
所以，你得到的是一门基本上就是 20 或 25 年前的 Walmart 的生意。然而，你只需付 15 倍市盈率，因为它位于墨西哥。
And so, you have a business that's basically Walmart, you know, like 20 or 25 years ago. Yet, you only pay 15 times earnings because it's in Mexico.
所以，如果我必须做选择，我宁愿在未来 10、15、20 年持有 Walmart Mexico，也不愿以 40 倍市盈率在今天买入美国的 Walmart。
And so, if I have a choice to make, I've used it rather own Walmart Mexico for the next, you know, 10, 15, 20 years than buying Walmart today in the US at 40 times earnings.
同样的生意，同样的专业能力，同样的人。我们知道这个商业模式行得通，但你只是以很大的折扣买入它，因为它恰好在墨西哥上市。
Um same business, same expertise, same people. Uh we know that business model works, uh but you just buy it uh at a big discount because it happens to be listed in in Mexico.
是的，这是个很好的问题。Walmart 在 1990 年代中期进入墨西哥，收购了那家公司，所以他们拥有 Walmart Mexico 71% 或 72% 的股份。他们让它继续在墨西哥上市，我认为，是出于本地化的考虑，拥有一个本地上市身份，确保政客、监管机构把你视为一家墨西哥公司。
也有一些墨西哥养老基金投资其中。所以，我认为这创造了一些本地好感。但显然他们凭借 71%、72% 的持股控制着它，而且他们已经经营了将近 30 年。所以，它非常像 Walmart，只是恰好在墨西哥上市。
Yeah, it's it's a great question. So, Walmart entered Mexico in the in the mid-1990s, bought that company, so they own 71 or 72% of Walmart Mexico. Um, they kept it listed, uh, in Mexico, I think, for you know, like local reason to have a a local listing, to make sure that the politician, the regulators like perceived you as a as a Mexican company.
Uh, you have some Mexican pension fund which are invested as well. And so, I think that creates some some local goodwill. But, they obviously control it with, you know, 71 72% of of of of the shareholding and they've run it for almost like 30 years.
So, it's very much Walmart, but it just happened to be to be listed in in Mexico.
而且显然，鉴于他们 70% 的持股，他们可以将其完全并表。所以，你是在整个业务上获得那个市盈率倍数。
And they get to fully consolidate it, obviously, um, given their 70% ownership. So, you you get that multiple on on, you know, the entire operation.
这个频道对 $WALMEX 的历次判断
The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。