WM因估值相对历史水平偏低且盈利增长前景强劲，是一项具吸引力的投资。
逐段跳播
这家废物管理公司的股价在过去一年里下跌了5%，自年初以来下跌了约5.3%。这是一次异常的下跌，因为自2012年以来，该公司只经历过一年的下跌，那就是2022年，当时其股价下跌了约3.6%。
The waste management company's stock has fallen by 5% over the past year, and by approximately 5.3% since the beginning of the year. This is an exceptional decline, as the company has only experienced one year of decline since 2012, and that was in 2022, when its stock fell by approximately 3.6%
因此，过去13年、14年或15年对这家废物管理公司来说都是异常出色的。所以，是的，这是一次显著的下跌。相比之下，标准普尔500指数在过去一年表现良好，上涨了约16%。
Therefore, the past 13, 14 or 15 years have been exceptional for the waste management company . So, yes, that's a significant decrease. In contrast, the Standard & Poor's 500 index performed well over the past year, rising by approximately 16%
引人注目的是，如果我们看上个月的表现，会发现标准普尔500指数略有上涨，但这并非典型的市场表现。
What is striking is that if we look at last month’s performance, we find that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has risen slightly, but this is not typical market performance.
这家废物管理公司是一家工业企业，而悖论正在于此。我们注意到，工业板块在过去一个月下跌了约5.6%。
The waste management company is an industrial company, and therein lies the paradox. We note a decline in the industrial sector of approximately 5.6% during the past month.
这家废物管理公司股价的下跌究竟代表着一个投资机会，还是像许多其他工业板块一样，只是一次价格上涨？我们这里讨论的是一家废物管理公司的五年市盈率。从历史上看，这家公司的交易价格一直高于其市场价值，这背后有几个原因，我们稍后会讨论。
Does the decline in the stock of the waste management company represent an investment opportunity, or is it just a price increase like many other industrial sectors? What we are discussing here is the five-year price-to-earnings ratio for a waste management company.
Historically, this company has always traded at a price higher than its market value, and this is due to several reasons that we will discuss later.
我们注意到，其五年市盈率约为27.6。目前约为24.3，非常接近其过去五年的最低估值水平。但有趣的是，市盈率并不稳定。市现率倍数则完全不同。从自由现金流倍数的角度来看，该公司正处于过去五年的最低估值水平。
We note that the five-year price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 27.6. Currently, it stands at around 24.3, which is very close to its lowest rating level in the past five years But what is interesting is that the price-to-earnings ratio is unstable.
The price-to-cash-flow multiple is completely different. The company is at its lowest valuation level in the past five years when viewed from the perspective of the free cash flow multiplier.
事实上，过去五年的平均值为32.7，而目前仅为21.08。因此，我们看到投资者目前愿意为这家废物管理公司支付更低的估值倍数。
In fact, the average over the past five years is 32.7, while currently it is only 21.08. Therefore, we see that investors are willing to pay a lower valuation multiple for the waste management company at the moment.
实际上，这相当有趣。这与我们刚刚看到的整个工业板块的情况完全不同。这家废物管理公司的运营方式与板块内其他公司完全不同。
Actually, this is quite interesting. It's a completely different story from what we've just seen in the industrial sector as a whole. The waste management company operates in a completely different way from the rest of the sector.
那么，为什么会有这种差异？这对这家废物管理公司来说是否代表着一个机会？
So why this difference? Does this represent an opportunity for the waste management company ?
让我们在这里输入WM的数据。数据将会上传，Waste Management目前的收益率约为1.76%。这确实高于标普500的回报率，但绝不是高回报。这是一只具有股息增长性的防御性股票。
Let's enter the WM data here. The data will be uploaded, and Waste Management's current yield is approximately 1.76%. It is certainly a higher return than the S&P 500, but it is by no means a high return . This is a defensive stock with dividend growth.
在过去五年里，他们在提高股息派发方面表现异常出色，复合年增长率接近10%。他们目前用于派发股息的自由现金流不到一半。这正是我喜欢并非常欣赏这只股票的特点之一：他们股息的增长几乎与自由现金流的增长成比例，这意味着无论从五年还是十年的角度来看，股息增长都是完全可持续的。
Over the past five years , they have performed exceptionally well in increasing their dividend payouts, with a compound annual growth rate approaching 10%. They currently use less than half of their free cash flow to distribute dividends.
Herein lies one of the features that I like and greatly appreciate about this stock : the growth of their dividends is almost in proportion to the growth of their free cash flows, which means that the dividend growth is perfectly sustainable, whether we look at it on a five-year or ten-year basis.
这意味着自由现金流的分配总体上将保持在一个相近的范围内。当然，他们有着长期逐步提高股息派发的历史。于是，我们开始对正在谈论的这类股票形成了一些认识。
This means that the distribution of free cash flows will generally remain within a similar range. Of course, they have a long history of increasing dividend payouts over time. So, we began to form an idea of the type of stock we were talking about.
你会注意到流入公司的内部现金流非常稳定。收入一直非常稳定，而且自2020年前后以来的增长非常强劲。五年收入的复合年增长率约为10.6%。
You will notice very stable internal cash flows into the company. Revenues have been very stable, and growth since around 2020 has been very strong. The compound annual growth rate of revenues over five years was approximately 10.6%.
因此，连年增长的股息，加上稳定的现金流和稳定的收入，让我们对这家公司有了更清晰的认识。首先，我想强调的最重要的一点之一是，这家公司拥有稳定、持续增长且可重复的收入来源。简而言之，这些就是投资一家废物管理公司总体上的优势。
Therefore, consecutive years of dividend growth with stable cash flows and stable revenues give us a clearer picture of this company. First, one of the most important points I would like to emphasize is that this company has stable, growing and recurring revenue streams.
These are, in brief, the advantages of investing in a waste management company in general.
事实上，他们提到的其中一点是可预测现金流的产生。让我们看看他们具体指的是什么。如果我们继续往下看，就会发现事情变得有意思了。这家废物管理公司的现金流的特点是，对经济下行具有相当强的抵御能力。
这里的意思很容易理解：他们为客户和社区提供的是一项基础服务。这是2020年少数没有停止运营的服务之一。
In fact, one of the points they also mentioned was the generation of predictable cash flows . Let's see what exactly they mean. If we start scrolling down, we'll find things get interesting.
The cash flows of the waste management company are characterized by their considerable resistance to economic downturns . It's easy to understand what they mean here; they are providing customers and communities with a basic service.
This is one of the few services that did not stop operating in 2020.
也许最吸引人的地方在于，它拥有可重复的收入，这确实令人印象深刻。其75%的收入具有类似固定收益的特征。因此，投资者历史上为何愿意为这只股票支付溢价，就很快变得清楚了。
Perhaps the most attractive thing is that it has recurring revenues, which is truly impressive . 75% of its revenues have characteristics similar to fixed income. Therefore, it quickly becomes clear why investors have historically been willing to pay a premium for this stock.
为什么它值得以现金流倍数的30到35倍之间的价格交易？的确，它的利润和收入以合理的速度增长，也许在10%左右，但最重要的原因是这些现金流的可预测性。
Why is it worth trading at a price between 30 and 35 times the cash flow multiple? Well , it is true that its profits and revenues were growing at a reasonable rate, perhaps around 10%, but the most important reason is the predictability of those cash flows.
我已经反复提到过这一点，但归根结底，一只股票的估值倍数由两个关键因素决定：第一，盈利增长率，这也许是最重要的；第二，未来现金流的可预测性。
I have mentioned this repeatedly, but at its core , a stock's valuation multiple is determined by two key factors: first, the rate of earnings growth, which is perhaps the most important, and second, the predictability of future cash flows.
至于这家废物管理公司，其大部分现金流具有抗衰退性和可重复性。投资者买入这只股票，是因为其未来现金流的可预测性。
As for the waste management company , most of its cash flows are recession-resistant and recurring. Investors buy this stock because of the predictability of its future cash flows.
此外，我们看到股价本身的波动非常轻微，这是一个已被证实的事实。其相对于标准普尔500指数的贝塔系数约为0.56。因此可以说，其相对于标准普尔500指数的波动性大约是标准普尔500指数的一半。
In addition, we have seen very slight fluctuations in the share price itself, and this is a proven fact. Its beta coefficient was approximately 0.56 compared to the Standard & Poor's 500.
Therefore, it can be said that its volatility compared to the Standard & Poor's 500 is roughly half that of the Standard & Poor's 500.
我不知道你怎么看，但根据你提到的所有内容，这似乎正是沃伦·巴菲特在其职业生涯某个阶段会倾向于投资的那类企业。
I don't know about you, but based on everything you've mentioned , it seems like this is the kind of business Warren Buffett would have preferred to invest in at some point in his career .
现在，我们来稍微谈谈资本配置。资本配置是最重要的管理任务，正因如此，我一直在谈论这个话题。它确实是最重要的管理任务。然而，我注意到很多人对工作的这一方面没有给予足够的关注。但归根结底，我们必须问：他们如何配置资本？
是将其再投资于公司吗？是在进行并购以强化其资产负债表吗？是将利润分配给股东并回购其股票吗？
Now, let's talk a little about capital allocation. Capital allocation is the most important management task, and I talk about this topic constantly for this very reason . It is literally the most important administrative task.
However, I have noticed that many people do not give this aspect of the work enough attention. But ultimately, we must ask: How do they allocate capital? Do they reinvest it in the company?
Are they conducting mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their balance sheet? Do they distribute profits to shareholders and repurchase their shares?
至于这家废物管理公司，我们注意到它相对均衡，而这也是它自己所表述的。目标自由现金流分配比例约为40%到50%，而在此之上，正如我们所见，他们正是这样做的。目前的百分比是47%。过去几年，公司一直将业绩维持在健康区间内。
As for the waste management company , we note that it is relatively balanced, and this is what it states. The target free cash flow distribution ratio is around 40 to 50%, and above that, as we have seen, that is exactly what they did .
The current percentage is 47%. Over the past few years, the company has maintained its performance within a healthy range.
因此，正如我们之前提到的，股息增长完全符合预期，并且在过去三年、五年和十年间都颇具吸引力。我们正在观察到有机增长和良好的再投资率。
Therefore, as we mentioned earlier, dividend growth has been entirely in line with expectations and has been attractive over the past three, five and ten years. We are observing organic growth and a good rate of reinvestment.
该公司已经进行了一些并购，包括收购Stericle，这在过去几年里一直是我们感兴趣的。我过去已经充分谈过这个话题，但正如你所见，这是一笔规模巨大的收购交易，2024年价值约72亿美元，作为对比，公司当年产生的自由现金流约为21亿美元。
因此，这笔交易远大于公司单一年份所产生的任何自由现金流。
The company has already undertaken some mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Stericle, which has been of interest to us over the past few years. I have touched on this subject sufficiently in the past, but as you can see, it was a huge acquisition deal worth about $7.2 billion in 2024, and for comparison, the company generated free cash flow of about $2.1 billion that year.
Therefore, this deal was much larger than any free cash flow the company had generated in a single year.
不言而喻，在进行如此规模的交易时，实现正的投资回报是很重要的。
It goes without saying that when making a deal of this size, it is important to achieve a positive return on investment.
我们还注意到，一部分资本被分配用于股票回购。他们目前预计在2026年回购价值约2美元的股票，作为对比，他们在2025年实际分配的股息约为13亿美元。这让我们有了更清晰的视角。2026年的股票回购将超过他们在2025年分配的全部股息。所以，这确实是一只向股东提供真实回报的股票。
We also note that a portion of the capital is allocated for share buybacks. They currently expect to repurchase shares worth approximately US$2 in 2026, and for comparison, they actually distributed approximately US$1.3 billion in dividends in 2025.
This gives us a clearer perspective. Share buybacks in 2026 will exceed the total dividends they distributed in 2025. So, it is indeed a stock that delivers real returns to shareholders.
在我看来，关于这家废物管理公司，另一件有意思的事情是，需要从这样一个角度来看待每只股票：人工智能将如何改变这个行业？它会构成威胁吗？
Another interesting thing, in my opinion, regarding the waste management company, is the need to look at each stock from a perspective: How will artificial intelligence change this sector ? Will it pose a threat?
我认为，对这家废物管理公司而言，简单的论点是：人工智能代表着一个可衡量的运营机会。显然，人工智能不可能一夜之间就取代一家废物管理公司。然而，这家废物管理公司可能比其行业内任何其他公司都更有条件真正落地人工智能。
利用人工智能来改进每一条运输路线、每一辆卡车和每一吨废物。这将降低劳动力成本并改善废物收集路线。
I think the simple argument for the waste management company is that artificial intelligence represents a measurable operational opportunity. It is clear that artificial intelligence cannot simply replace a waste management company overnight.
However, the waste management company is probably better positioned than any other company in its sector to actually implement artificial intelligence . Using artificial intelligence to improve every transport route, every truck, and every ton of waste.
This will reduce labor costs and improve waste collection routes.
这不是需要数年才能实现的事情。我认为我们也将开始看到利润率的这种改善，而利润率一直相当不错。我们观察到过去十年间有小幅扩张。
This is not something that will take years. I think we will start to see this improvement in profit margins as well, which have been fairly good. We have observed a slight expansion over the past decade.
同样重要的是要注意，他们目前正在经历一个轻微的变化，至少就首席执行官而言。这家废物管理公司已任命John Morris为首席执行官，因为Jim Fish在公司工作25年后即将退休。
因此，在任何此类内部变动中，值得注意的是，这一变动不会在2027年1月4日之前发生。
It is also important to note that they are currently undergoing a slight change, at least with regard to the CEO. The waste management company has appointed John Morris as its chief executive, as Jim Fish is set to retire after 25 years with the company.
Therefore, in any such internal change , it is worth noting that this change will not occur before January 4, 2027.
现在，在以上所有内容之后，让我们稍微更深入地探讨这只股票的实际估值。我的意思是，我们知道，与其历史表现相比，其股价目前处于折价交易。这是这家废物管理公司应得的新倍数，还是存在一个隐藏的投资机会？
Now, after all of the above, let's delve a little deeper into the actual valuation of this stock. I mean, we know that compared to their historical performance, their stock price is trading at a discount.
Is this the new multiplier that the waste management company deserves, or is there a hidden investment opportunity?
好，我们来考虑几个因素，首先进入敏感性分析，并输入这家废弃物管理公司的数据。我们先强调几个要点。首先，我们注意到，到2030年——至少到那一年——每股收益的预计复合年增长率约为9.6%，而这一增速到2029年将升至两位数。
Okay, let's take a few things into consideration , and we'll start by moving on to sensitivity analysis and entering data from the waste management company. Let's start by highlighting some important points.
To begin with , we note that by 2030, at least until that year, the projected compound annual growth rate of earnings per share will be around 9.6%, and this rate will rise to double digits by 2029.
我们假设该公司未来每股收益将实现10%的增长，且当前市盈率将维持在当前水平，也就是说我们不会看到它上升。该公司的股票将继续以过去五年自由现金流和盈利倍数方面的最低水平交易。这对该股来说会是什么样子？
在这种情况下，以当前水平看，未来回报非常有吸引力。我们这里说的是介于11%到12%之间的复合回报，在很多情况下甚至达到13%，同时要记住，这还不包括你应当同时获得的约1.76的初始回报。
Let's assume that the company will achieve 10% growth in earnings per share in the future, and that the current price-to-earnings ratio will remain at its current level, meaning that we will not see any increase in it .
The company's shares will continue to trade at their lowest levels in terms of free cash flow and earnings multiple over the past five years. What will that look like for the stock?
In this case, future returns look very attractive at current levels. We are talking here about compound returns ranging between 11% and 12 %, and even 13% in many cases, keeping in mind that this does not include the initial return of about 1.76 that you are supposed to receive at the same time.
如果市盈率继续下降呢？如果市场经历一轮下行呢？该股目前的市盈率为25。幸运的是，我们预计盈利增长足够强劲，能在2029年或2031年之前带来良好回报。把股息算进去，我们说的是介于8%、9%和10%之间的复合回报。
What if the price-to-earnings ratio continues to decline? What if the market experiences a downturn? The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25. Fortunately, we expect earnings growth to be strong enough to deliver good returns until 2029 or 2031.
When you add dividends, we are talking about compound returns of between 8%, 9% and 10%.
因此，从风险回报的角度来看这家废弃物管理公司，我认为回报已开始明显超过风险。
Therefore, when looking at the waste management company from a risk-to-reward perspective, I believe the return has started to significantly outweigh the risk.
可以肯定的是，这只股票历史上一直以高于其真实价值的价格交易，而这个价格是否合理则存在争议。不过，持有这只股票的主要风险——至少在前几年——仅仅是估值风险。该公司非常强劲，拥有经常性收入，其中固定收益占其总收入的75%。考虑到其预期现金流，主要风险在于该股的估值。
It is certain that this stock has historically traded at a price higher than its true value, and it is debatable whether this price is justified or not. However, the main risk, at least in previous years, of owning this stock was simply valuation risk.
The company is very strong, with recurring revenues, where fixed income makes up 75% of its total revenue. Given its expected cash flows, the main risk lies in the stock's valuation.
随着每股收益在过去一年以不错的增速增长，而其价格同时下跌，其估值变得更具吸引力。因此，即便估值倍数继续在当前区间内交易，考虑到盈利增长预测，未来回报看起来也非常有吸引力。
With earnings per share growing at a good rate over the past year, and its price declining at the same time, its valuation becomes more attractive. Therefore, even if the valuation multiple continues to trade within the current range, future returns look very attractive given the earnings growth forecasts.
事实上，分析师目前设定的平均目标价显示，该股较其公允价值可能上涨25%，约合260美元。因此，我将这只股票加入我的投资组合，我会密切关注它，并认真考虑在当前水平加仓更多。
In fact, the average target price currently set by analysts suggests the stock could rise by 25%, or approximately $260, from its fair value. Therefore, I am adding this stock to my investment portfolio, and I will be monitoring it closely and seriously considering adding more of it at the current levels.
这个频道对 $WM 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。