WMT 是一家具备抗 AI 能力的优质企业，但其当前估值倍数相对其盈利增长率过高。
逐段跳播
第一只股票是沃尔玛。这是一个非常有意思的案例，因为从历史上看，沃尔玛在过去十年表现非常好。它以相当大的幅度跑赢了标普500指数。
And the first stock is Walmart. This is a very interesting case study because historically speaking, Walmart's done very well over the last decade. It's outperformed the S&P 500 by a pretty large margin.
然而，在过去一年里，它表现落后，上涨约5%，而年初至今实际上下跌了2%，同期标普500指数上涨了两位数。过去几天它只是小幅上涨，但仍处于52周区间的低端。
However, in the last year now has underperformed up about 5% and year-to date actually down by 2% while the S&P 500 is up double digits. Now, it's climbed just a little bit over the last couple of days, but it is on the lower end of its 52- week range.
我们知道，沃尔玛是投资者目前争相买入的公司之一，因为他们认为它更能抵御AI的冲击。除此之外，从历史上看，沃尔玛在过去几年里持续实现盈利增长。
We understand that Walmart is one of those companies that investors are flocking to right now because they consider it more AI resistant. On top of this, historically, Walmart has continued to grow earnings over the last few years.
看看股票筛选器。数据会通过ticker data加载进来，你可以看到每股营收持续攀升，而2025年的每股收益实际上创下了纪录，显著高于2020年和2023年的水平。
Take a look at the stock screener. The data will load in thanks to ticker data and you can see revenue per share has continued to climb higher while earnings per share in 2025 was actually a record significantly higher than the levels they were at in 2020 and 2023.
那么，为什么该股年初至今下跌了如此大的幅度，至少相对于标普500指数而言？这是个好问题。在过去6个月里，该股下跌了13.4%。
So, why have we seen the stock decline by such a large amount year to date, at least relative to the S&P 500? Well, it's a great question. In the last 6 months, the stock is down 13.4%.
为什么会这样？其实并不复杂。实际上，估值倍数已大幅下降，尤其是在过去几年里。从历史上看，沃尔玛的市盈率处于20至25倍的区间。当AI真正开始成为威胁、投资者真正开始担忧AI时，他们开始愿意为沃尔玛支付溢价，将其视为某种程度上不受AI影响的公司。但市盈率一度一路升至45倍，接近46至47倍。
Why is this the case? Well, it's not too complicated. In reality, the valuation multiple has declined substantially, particularly in the last few years. Historically, Walmart was trading in that 20 to 25 PE multiple range.
Once AI really started becoming a threat, once investors really started fearing AI, they began willing to pay a premium for Walmart, they reviewed it as somewhat AI proof. But it got all the way up to a 45p multiple at one point closer to a 46 47P multiple.
所以现在我们已经看到，市盈率仅仅在过去几个月里就大幅回落了。
So now we've seen that PE multiple pull back significantly just in the last few months.
举个例子，看看沃尔玛从2016年到2026年初的这十年。没错，沃尔玛的每股收益继续以健康的速率增长，每股股息也以健康的速率增长，但他们绝大部分的收益都来自估值扩张。
For example, take a look at the past decade from 2016 to the beginning of 2026 for Walmart. Yes, Walmart continued to grow earnings per share at a healthy rate. They grew dividends per share at a healthy rate, but the vast majority of their gains came from valuation expansion.
如果预计它们未来盈利会以高得多的速率增长，或者它们正在拓宽自己的护城河——相对于市场，它们或许在一定程度上做到了——那么这是可以成立的。但任何时候，当你的绝大部分收益都来自估值倍数扩张时，这都有点令人不安。
Now, that can be justified if they're projected to grow earnings at a much higher rate in the future or if they're widening their moat, which maybe to some degree they have relative to the market.
But anytime you have the vast majority of your gains coming from valuation multiple expansion, it's a little bit frightening.
所以，沃尔玛仍然是一家很棒的企业。它的每股收益和每股营收都在增长，而且2025年的投入资本回报率实际上是他们相较往年最高的水平之一。
So, Walmart is still a great business. Its growing earnings and revenue per share, and return on invested capital was actually one of the highest levels they've had in 2025 compared to prior years.
这家企业的股价只是被定在了非常昂贵的价位。这就是简单的现实。那么，我们现在就从股息的角度来看看沃尔玛。你会看到，股息率仍然相当低，大约只有1%，而过去几年股息增长实际上只有6%左右的区间。
The business was just trading at a very expensive price. That's the simple reality. And so, let's just look at Walmart now from a dividend perspective. What you'll see is the yield is still quite low.
It's just roughly 1% and dividend growth is really only at around the 6% range over the last few years.
有意思的是，当你去看沃尔玛的预期盈利增长时，它是相当不错的，大约在10%、11%到12%这个区间。但对于一只股息率为1%、盈利增长约10%的股票，很多时候我大概不会愿意为它支付接近50倍的市盈率。
我认为现在市场上很多人也正在意识到这一点。所以，这就是抛售的原因。这相当不言自明。
And what's interesting is when you look at projected earnings growth for Walmart, it's decent. It's roughly that 10 11 to 12% range. But a stock with a 1% yield growing earnings at about 10% a lot of the times I probably would not be willing to pay a near 50p multiple for that stock.
And I think that's what a lot of the market is realizing as well right now. So, that's the reason for the sell-off. It's pretty self-evident.
那么，按当前价格来看它有意思吗？如果我们跳到敏感性分析，看看沃尔玛，如果它们能够像分析师似乎确实在预测的那样，以大约10.5%的复合年增长率增长每股收益，而它们未来的市盈率倍数，也许会进一步下降，更接近历史平均水平，也许会在过去12个月的基础上一直降到接近35倍。
你可以看到，前瞻性回报看起来仍然受到压制。事实上，它们的12个月市盈率倍数得接近40倍，2031年的复合回报才能接近市场平均水平。
Is it interesting at current prices? Well, if we jump over to our sensitivity analysis and look at Walmart, if they're able to grow EPS at a compounded annual growth rate of roughly 10.5% like analysts do seem to be projecting, and their future PE multiple, maybe it declines even more closer to the historic average.
Maybe it drops all the way down on a trailing 12-month basis to closer to 35. You can see forward-looking returns still look suppressed. In fact, their 12month PE multiple would have to be closer to 40 for 2031 compounded returns to be close to market averages.
所以，这就是我要说的。沃尔玛是一家很棒的企业。我也确实认为它是市面上比较能抵御AI冲击的企业之一，但即便按当前价格，你要把这只股票加入自己的投资组合，仍然得支付相当昂贵的市盈率倍数。
我认为这样的盈利增长水平并不足以支撑当前的估值倍数。
So, here's what I'm saying. Walmart is a great business. I do also think it's one of the more AI proof businesses out there, but even at current prices, you're still having to pay quite an expensive multiple to add this stock to your portfolio.
I don't think the level of earnings growth justifies the current valuation multiple.
这个频道对 $WMT 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。