Wolfspeed没有即将复苏的迹象；只有极低的估值（低于年化销售额的2倍）才会吸引投机性买入。
逐段跳播
碳化硅领域的 Wolfspeed？因为我把 Wolfspeed 列在碳化硅晶圆下面，具体来说是原始碳化硅晶圆，但他们也做外延晶圆。他们也做外延步骤，使用 CVD，即化学气相沉积。
他们也制造器件。他们处于中间位置，在碳化硅器件领域，与 IDM 厂商并列。
Silicon carbide Wolfspeed? Because I have Wolfspeed listed here under silicon carbide wafers, specifically raw silicon carbide wafers, but they also do epitaxial wafers. They also do the epi step using CVD, chemical vapor deposition. They also make devices. They're here in the middle in the silicon carbide devices with the IDMs.
但 Wolfspeed 的复苏情况如何？我刚刚点击了 Wolfspeed 的财务数据。它弹出来，显示在右边这个小面板上。这是过去 12 个月的数据。
But what about Wolfspeed's recovery? I just clicked on the financials for Wolfspeed. It pops up here on this little panel on the right. This is the last 12 months.
你也可以直接点击 Wolfspeed，从供应链页面直接进入财务页面。营收持续下滑。他们预计下一季度（即日历年第三季度，截至九月底）营收环比持平。
You can also just click on Wolfspeed and go to the financials page directly from the supply chain. Revenue has continued to decline. They guided for sequentially flat revenue for the next quarter, that ends in Q3 of the calendar year, end of September.
但看看这些利润率。这太糟糕了。你在烧钱。他们重新调整了资产负债表。他们得以与债权人达成和解，包括 Apollo、Renesas 等。
But look at these margins. This is just terrible. You're bleeding cash. They reworked the balance sheet. They were able to settle with creditors, with Apollo and Renesas and others.
但是，首要任务，如果 Wolfspeed 要解决所有这些其他问题，他们首先必须恢复营收增长，尤其是当其他一些垂直整合的 IDM 厂商，如 STMicro、Onsemi、Infineon，也是垂直整合的时候。
But, priority number one, if all this other stuff is going to get fixed for Wolfspeed, they need to return to revenue growth first and foremost, especially when you have some of the other integrated IDMs like STMicro, Onsemi, Infineon are vertically integrated as well.
对我们个人而言，除非 Wolfspeed 变得非常非常便宜，而它现在似乎就是这样。我们现在在哪里？让我点击 Wolfspeed。市值 14 亿。哇，今天涨了很多，8%，反弹相当强劲。
Personally for us, unless Wolfspeed got really, really cheap, which it appears it is. Where are we at today? Let me click on Wolfspeed. Market cap of 1.4 billion. Wow, it's up a lot today, 8%, quite the rebound.
无论如何，这就是 Wolfspeed 的现状。除非 Wolfspeed 变得非常非常便宜，开始以低于年化销售额两倍的价格交易，到那时，好吧，也许我们会建立一个初始仓位或投机仓位，甚至可能买入长期虚值看涨期权，类似这样的操作，不会占用投资组合太多资金，但如果情况突然好转，可能会捕捉到一些上涨空间。
At any rate, that's where Wolfspeed's at. Unless Wolfspeed gets really, really cheap, starts trading for less than two times annualized sales, at which point, okay, maybe we take a starter position or a speculative position, maybe even buy a long-dated out-of-the-money call option, something like that that doesn't eat up very much of the portfolio at all, but could capture some upside if things suddenly turned around.
而像 Wolfspeed 这样更具投机性的押注，如果它变得足够便宜，那会吸引我们重新入场。但目前还没有即将复苏的迹象。
And a more speculative bet like Wolfspeed, if it got cheap enough, that would tempt us back in. But there's no sign of imminent recovery yet.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $WOLF 的历次判断
Chip Stock Investor 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。