小米估值合理，但市盈率19倍并不具吸引力；应等待市盈率降至9-10倍再买入。
逐段跳播
我在看一些亚洲股票时，不可避免地会注意到小米。这家公司涉足各个领域：智能手机、人工智能物联网和电动汽车，但该股已下跌 50%。
Now, I was looking at some Asian stocks and you can't help but look at Xiaomi. The company is present in everything; Smartphones, AI-powered Internet of Things, and electric cars, but the stock is down 50%.
因此，我们应该从投资的角度来看待它，但它也有一个非常有趣的故事，因为它与一切相关：在亚洲，电动汽车、人工智能、智能手机、我们的生活方式、市场、价格、风险和回报。所以，这是一个非常有趣的故事。
Therefore, we should look at it from an investment perspective, but there is also a very interesting story related to it because it is connected to everything; In Asia, electric cars, artificial intelligence, smartphones, our lifestyle, the market, price, risks and returns. So, it's a very interesting story.
从业务方面来看，一切似乎都很好。他们在世界上有自己的位置。他们受到智能手机内存价格上涨的轻微影响。然而，他们为自己投入了大量资金，400 亿元人民币，约合 60 亿美元。
If we look at the business side, everything seems fine. They have their place in the world. They were slightly affected by the rising prices of memory for their smartphones. However, they are investing large sums for themselves, 40 billion renminbi, which is equivalent to approximately 6 billion US dollars.
当然，小米的市值是 320 亿美元。该股已下跌 50%。
Of course, Xiaomi's market value is $32 billion. The stock is down 50%.
如果埃隆·马斯克收购这家公司，这将是埃隆赚取数万亿美元的一种方式。他可以以 400 亿美元收购小米，并重新估值以达到 3 万亿美元。
If Elon Musk buys this company, it will be a way for Elon to make a few trillion. He could buy Xiaomi for 40 billion and revalue it to reach 3 trillion.
然而，他们也涉足人工智能模型和代码的使用。他们做得很好。他们正在与所有其他参与者竞争。
However, they are also involved in artificial intelligence models and the use of codes. They are doing very well. They are competing with all the other players.
确认就在这里。以 300 亿美元的市值，他们做得很好。其他参与者的收入甚至达不到 300 亿美元，然而他们的市值却达到数十亿美元。
The confirmation is here. With a market value of 30 billion, they are doing well. Other players don't even reach 30 billion in revenue, yet they have market values in the billions.
具身智能、小米机器人等类似的东西具有高度适用性。我们会看看情况如何发展。他们正在扩张、整合，并增加能够向你销售所有产品的门店数量。
Embodied intelligence, Xiaomi robots, things like that are highly applicable. We'll see how things turn out. They are expanding, integrating, and increasing the number of stores where they will be able to sell everything to you.
智能手机不再便宜，因为他们不得不因内存成本增加而提高价格，但他们仍然保持第二、第三或第四的位置。所以，他们仍然处于有利地位。他们成功地将平均售价大幅提高了 25%。这有所帮助，但销量仍然很低。
他们的全球用户群在持续增长。平板电脑和可穿戴设备也是如此。
Smartphones are no longer cheap as they have had to raise their prices due to increased memory costs, but they still hold their second, third or fourth position. So, they are still in a good position. They have succeeded in significantly increasing average selling prices by 25%. This helped a little, but sales are still low. Their global user base is constantly growing. As well as tablets and wearable devices.
但还有更多。有电动汽车和人工智能。他们正在扩展到汽车交付领域。
But there's more. There are electric cars and artificial intelligence. They are expanding into car delivery.
然而，小米的地位特点是其每个业务领域都竞争激烈，而且他们不是苹果，所以他们无法强加溢价。如果某样东西是普通商品，它就会变得糟糕。
However, Xiaomi's position is characterized by high competition in every sector of its operations, and they are not Apple, so they cannot impose premium prices. If something is an ordinary commodity, it becomes bad.
小米、苹果，作为价值投资者，我们不需要一直拥有所有东西。我们可以选择在合适的价格拥有我们想要的东西。所以，苹果的市盈率是 36，小米的市盈率是 19。是的，它相对便宜，但我需要拥有它吗？不，我可以等到市盈率达到 9。
Xiaomi, Apple, as value investors, we don't need to own everything all the time. We can choose what we want to own at the right price. So, Apple has a price-to-earnings ratio of 36, and Xiaomi has a ratio of 19. Yes, it is relatively cheaper, but do I need to own it? No, I can simply wait until the price-to-earnings ratio reaches nine.
就这样。这就是基本的故事。小米的股票可以上涨，也可以下跌。然而，在市盈率为 19 的情况下，可以说是定价合理，这不是一个非常有利可图的交易。
That's all. That's the basic story. Xiaomi's stock can rise, and it can fall. However, at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, let's say fairly priced, it's not a very winning deal.
如果我们稍微看一下收入，我们会发现多年增长后的首次下降，市场现在感到担忧。然而，净利润大幅下降。他们甚至发行了普通股，可能是为了投资于他们向人工智能的迈进。按类别划分的收入在智能手机方面下降，在其他方面增长，在某些方面稳定。
然而，净利润大幅下降，这就是我们看到的下滑趋势。
If we look a little at the revenues, we find the first decline after many years of growth, and the market is now worried. However, net income decreased significantly. They even issued common stock, likely to invest in their move towards artificial intelligence. Revenue by category is down in smartphones, growing in other things, and stable somewhere. However, net profit has fallen significantly, and this is what we see seeping downwards.
因此，假设其他因素保持不变，在另一个季度，当第三季度恢复正常时，市盈率将是 25 而不是 19。然而，他们在回购股票，这很好，但发行新股则不然。
Therefore, assuming other factors remain constant, in another quarter, the price-to-earnings ratio will be 25 and not 19 when the third quarter returns to normal. However, they are repurchasing shares, which is good, but issuing new shares is not.
但小米是一个亚洲参与者。她投资于一切。他们将成为全球竞争者。同样，这在很大程度上反映了人工智能、电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车甚至机器人的总体环境。
But Xiaomi is an Asian player. She invests in everything. They will be global competitors. Again, this reflects a lot about the general environment for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, self-driving vehicles, and even robots.
它目前的价格是多少？如果你看看星展银行的预测，他们只预测增长和更多增长，无论如何。所以，这只是停滞的一年，然后我们将回到 20% 的增长。他们为未来的目标价设定了 25 的市盈率。
然后，是的，股票便宜，你应该买它，我们继续庆祝。
What is its current price? If you look at DBS Bank's forecasts, they are only predicting growth and more growth, no matter what. So, this is just a year of stagnation, then we'll return to 20% growth. They have set a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 for their future price target. And then, yes, the stock is cheap, you should buy it, and we continue to celebrate.
这将成功，直到它不再成功，直到真正的危机发生，一场亚洲危机。我们很久没有见过这样的危机了。但当它发生时，我们会来寻找市盈率为 9 的股票。当前价格反映了当前情况。股票会基于增长而重新估值吗？
每个人都在押注人工智能的增长。这种增长将从何而来，我们还有待观察。
This will succeed until it stops succeeding, until a real crisis occurs, an Asian crisis. We haven't seen crises like this in a long time. But when it happens, we will come and look for price-to-earnings ratios of nine. The current price reflects the current situation. Will the stock be revalued based on growth? Everyone is betting on the growth of artificial intelligence. Where this growth will come from is something we still have to see.
我们不喜欢投资于“青香蕉”（即不成熟的项目）。向图形处理单元的转变。出色的收入预测将提高利润率。一切都会看起来很棒。这就是分析师所说的，但也可能不会发生。对我来说，利润看起来还没有真正到来。
它可能会来，但也可能不会。然后你将面临另一次重新评估冲击，这是我在多年中学到的。当涉及亚洲股票时，你不想成为投资者。
We do not like to invest in "green bananas" (i.e., immature projects). The shift towards graphics processing units. Excellent revenue projections will boost profit margins. Everything will look great. That's what the analysts say, but it might not happen either. For me, it doesn't really look like the profits are coming yet. It may come, but it may not happen either. And then you will face another reassessment shock, and that is something, trust me, I have learned over the years. You don't want to be an investor when it comes to Asian stocks.
主要问题是，如果增长停止会怎样？那么我们会遇到这种情况，市盈率为九，它可能会增长，但也可能不会增长，因为我们现在在讨论小米时看到的巨大竞争，这涉及到所有公司，从特斯拉到AI和OpenAI，以及所有人，这非常有趣。
The main question is, what if growth stops? Then we get to this situation, the price-to-earnings ratio is nine, and it may grow, but it may also not grow due to the enormous competition we have seen now when discussing Xiaomi, which concerns all companies, from Tesla to AI and OpenAI, and everyone, which is very interesting.
但作为价值投资者，我们只会袖手旁观，等待市盈率达到10。我们不买承诺，我们买真实的现金流。在那之前，我们会有其他事情可做。
But for us as value investors, we will simply watch from the sidelines and wait for price-to-earnings ratios to reach 10. We don't buy promises, we buy real cash flows. Until then, there will be something else for us.
这个频道对 $XIACF 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。