XLK评级中性,展望负面;跌幅正在趋平,因其市值,全面下调的风险过高,故持仓中性,略微低配。
完整内容
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然后我们来到股票到股票板块。我的天,很长时间以来第一次,XLK不再是右侧唯一的板块。医疗保健和金融板块,XLV和XLF,已经加入。
And then we come to stocks to stock sectors. And my oh my, for the first time since a long period, XLK is not the only sector on the right hand side. Has been joined by health care and financials, XLV and XLF.
然后是科技板块,有很多理由将科技置于表现不佳的建议。当我准备这个视频时,我考虑过将能源置于绿色,科技置于红色。我可以为这两种情况都提出很好的理由。然而,市值是一个因素,众所周知,科技拥有最高的市值。所以科技对市场的影响是巨大的。如果你在这方面判断错误,你的投资组合将会出错。所以我发现很难,科技仍然在减弱象限内与其他板块分离,但正如你所看到的,尾部已经趋于平稳。你知道,下降的速度正在趋于平稳。而且随着这个
And then there's technology and there are many reasons to put technology on an underperformance recommendation. I While I was preparing this video, I I thought about putting energy on a green and technology on a red. And I can make a very good case for both situations. However, market capitalization is a factor and technology as you all know has the highest market capitalization. So the impact of technology on the market is huge. If you get this wrong, you will your portfolio will be wrong. So I find it hard with technology still detached from the other sectors inside the weakening quadrant, but as you can see tail is already leveling off. It's it you know the the speed of the decline is leveling off. And with this
当我准备这个视频时,我考虑过将能源置于绿色,科技置于红色。我可以为这两种情况都提出很好的理由。然而,市值是一个因素,众所周知,科技拥有最高的市值。所以科技对市场的影响是巨大的。如果你在这方面判断错误,你的投资组合将会出错。
I While I was preparing this video, I I thought about putting energy on a green and technology on a red. And I can make a very good case for both situations. However, market capitalization is a factor and technology as you all know has the highest market capitalization. So the impact of technology on the market is huge. If you get this wrong, you will your portfolio will be wrong.
所以我发现很难,科技仍然在减弱象限内与其他板块分离,但正如你所看到的,尾部已经趋于平稳。你知道,下降的速度正在趋于平稳。而且随着这里的这个走势,这个空间,XLK有足够的空间转回向上,朝向领先象限。我不确定它是否会这样做,但对我个人来说,我认为完全将科技降级为表现不佳的风险太大了。所以我将其移到一个橙色框,从绿色到橙色,这意味着它有点中性,但展望为负面。
So I find it hard with technology still detached from the other sectors inside the weakening quadrant, but as you can see tail is already leveling off. It's it you know the the speed of the decline is leveling off. And with this move here this space here there's plenty of room for XLK to turn back up towards the leading quadrant. I'm not sure whether it will do that but for me personally I think the risk of totally downgrading technology like an underperformer is too big. So I moved it to an orange box so from green to orange which means it's kind of neutral with a negative outlook.
所以仍然是一个体面的。那么这在投资组合管理方面意味着什么?我可能认为,你知道,科技现在大约36%,我仍然会在科技股中保留33、34,也许30%。我不会感到舒服地低配科技,更不用说将权重降至零。所以这就是将科技置于橙色框,带有中性负面展望的理由。
So still a decent So what what would that mean in terms of portfolio management? I probably think you know technology now at like 36% I would still keep 33 34 maybe 30% in technology stocks. I would not feel comfortable under waiting technology let alone moving the weight to zero in a portfolio. So that's the rationale for putting technology on an orange box with a like neutral negative outlook.
然后是科技。正如我所说,嗯,这不是一张好图表。这看起来不太好。这甚至可能是一个吞没蜡烛。嗯,RS线正在见顶,如果我们跌破这里的支撑位,还会有更多下行空间,更多相对下行空间。但是,还有空间。RS比率线仍然处于非常高的水平。所以,即使这跌破,RS比率也有足够的空间走低而不会跌破100。而且这里,在168左右,比如说170,肯定有一些支撑。我知道这些是大动作,更大的动作。但是,正如我所说,这个板块如此重要,以至于除非你100%确定这个板块会暴跌并迅速大幅下跌,否则完全退出科技是非常危险的。所以,现在,我提议对科技板块采取一种中性、略微低配的立场。我不舒服将其置于100%表现不佳。
And then here is technology. As I said, um this is not a good chart. This is not looking very good. This is could even be like an engulfing candle. Um the fact that the RS line is peaking, and if we break below this support level here, there is more downside to come, more relative downside to come. But, there is room. The RS ratio line is still at a very high level. So, even if this breaks, there's plenty of room for RS ratio to move lower without breaking below 100. And here also, there is definitely some support here around 168, let's say 170. And I know these are big move bigger moves. But, as I said, this sector is so important that it's it's almost unless you're a 100% sure that this sector is going to tank and going to go down hard, rapidly, it is very dangerous to get out of technology altogether. So, right now, I am proposing a kind of neutral slightly underweight position for the technology sector. I I I am not comfortable putting this at a 100% underperformer.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $XLK 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。