不要逢低买入XLU；其估值相对历史水平偏高，且收益率相较美国国债缺乏竞争力，可能导致资金停滞或进一步下跌。
逐段跳播
这是 State Street Utilities Select Sector Spider ETF，也就是 XLU。它大致可以代表这个板块的表现。我告诉你，我不会买这个回调。
我不喜欢它。我不喜欢它所代表的东西。我不喜欢它的走势。它处在无人地带。
This is a State Street Utilities Select Sector Spider ETF or XLU. It's sort of shorthand for how the sector is doing. I'm going to tell you, I will not buy this dip. I don't like it.
I don't like what it represents. I don't like how it acts. It's in no man's land.
所以我要说明的观点是，不是每个回调都能买。我不喜欢这一个。我认为最好的情况是资金被套死，最坏的情况是情况可能变得糟得多。
so to make the case I'm making is not every dip is buyable. I don't like this one. I think at best you have dead money and at worst this could get way worse.
你现在看公用事业板块，它们今年已经回落了很多。你甚至可能说它便宜，因为市盈率是 17.3，而过去 5 年的平均值接近 23。那会是短视的。如果你把视野拉长到真正的长期 10 年历史平均，公用事业板块的市盈率更接近 12。
所以 17 比 22 便宜，但从历史上看并不是一个有意义的折价。
When you look at utilities right now, they've pulled back a lot this year. You might even call it cheap because it's a 17.3 PE ratio and the 5-year average has been almost 23. That would be short-sighted.
If you zoom out to a true long-term 10-year historical average on uh the PE ratio for the utility sector, it's more like 12. So 17 is cheaper than 22, but historically not a meaningful discount.
这个板块的估值倍数出现了结构性的扭曲，原因是AI数据中心的叙事，我们把受监管的公用事业股当成了成长股来对待。如果你买入这次回调，基本上是在历史长期市盈率之上支付36%的溢价，但这个故事看起来确实已经不再成立，或者说撑不住了。
we had like a structurally distorted multiple in the space because of AI data center narrative and we were treating regulated utilities like they could be growth stocks. Uh, if you buy this dip, you're basically paying a 36% premium over the historical long-term PE, but it really does not look like that story is intact or going to hold up.
这里的另一个问题是，滚动股息率只有2.94%。历史上，在AI数据中心用电需求出现之前，人们买这些股票是为了股息率，而且我们已经用85种不同的方式说过。10年期美国国债收益率现在已经是5.4%。
所以，我认为聪明资金会选择那个，而不是承担公用事业股带来超过该水平的资本回报的风险。
The other problem here is the trailing dividend yield is only 2.94%. Historically, people before AI data center power, people bought these stocks for the yield and as we've said 85 different ways.
The 10-year Treasury note is now at 5 and a4%. So, I think the smart money is going to opt for that rather than the risk of a utility delivering a capital return in excess of that.
所以我认为这是一次应该回避、而不是去把握的回调。也许如果它变得便宜得多，我们会重新考虑这个想法。在公司Porterhouse集中动量策略里，我只持有一只公用事业股。所以，在这个行业里，我不知道，大概四十几只股票中，我只持有一只。
而且看起来它在我们的下一次再平衡中就要被剔除出去了。
Um, so I think it's a it's a it's a a dip that you want to avoid rather than take advantage of. Maybe if it gets much cheaper, we'll revisit that idea. I only have one utility name in the firm's Porterhouse concentrated momentum strategy.
So, out of the I don't know four dozen stocks in this in this industry, I have one. And it looks like it's about to get bounced out anyway on our next rebalance.
这是能源板块，各位。你听到我说的话了吗？这是市场上最好看的公用事业股，才有资格进入Porterhouse。而自从它进入指数，进入我们运作的这个策略以来，它看起来就一直很糟糕。我认为我们即将把它踢出去，除非发生什么根本性的变化。
所以，如果这是这个板块里最好看的名字，那它应该能让你大致了解其余那些股票在技术面上是什么样子。所以，它们不便宜，而且走势图指向右下方。
This is energy, guys. Did you hear what I said? This is the best looking utility in the market for in order for it to make Porter House. And since it got into the index uh in into the uh the strategy that we run, it's looked like [ __ ] ever since.
And I think we're about to kick it unless something radically changes. So, if that's the best looking name in the group, it it should tell you a little bit about how the rest of them look technically.
Um so, they're not cheap and the charts are pointing down and to the right.
这个频道对 $XLU 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。