Zillow因租赁与抵押贷款业务板块的高增长，以及在AI威胁下具备可防御的数据地位，而以13倍远期盈利的估值被低估。
逐段跳播
好，让我们转向一个稍有不同的市场，一家规模没那么大、但或许身处更大市场的公司，那就是Zillow。Zillow的市值只有约70亿美元。你知道Zillow过去12个月的增长是多少吗？
这让我很意外，各位。我的意思是，你在问我。我就说，我以为它大概会在个位数。它不在个位数。过去12个月是18%。
Okay, let's move to a slightly different market , a company that's not quite that big, but perhaps in a larger market, and that's Zillow. Zillow 's market capitalization is only about $7 billion.
Do you know what Zillow's growth rate has been over the last 12 months? That surprised me, guys. I mean, you're asking me . I'll just say I thought it would probably be in the single digits.
It's not in the single digits . It's 18% over the last 12 months.
但是，你必须把这项业务拆分为它的三个主要板块，我认为这才是对投资者来说真正有意思的部分。住宅业务有点疲软。住宅销售低迷。这意味着经纪人赚的钱更少，而最终，经纪人是为Zillow买单的人。
但是，Zillow增长最大的板块是租赁，这使它更像一个“平台业务”。如果你进入Zillow——我认为它是一家纯美国公司，所以也许那是我更熟悉的产品——但如果你进入Zillow不只是为了找房子买，也是为了找地方租，那么，顺便说一句，抵押贷款对他们来说是一项不断增长的业务。
But, you have to break this business down into its three main segments, and I think that's the part that gets really interesting for investors. The residential business is kind of sluggish .
Residential sales are low. That means agents are making less money, and ultimately, agents are footing the bill for Zillow. But, Zillow's big-growth segment is rentals, and that's what It makes it more like a "platform business."
If you go into Zillow—and I think it's a purely US company , so maybe that's a product I'm a little more familiar with —but if you go into Zillow not just to look for a house to buy, but also a place to rent, then, by the way, mortgages are a growing business for them.
所以，这两个板块，租赁，自2024年3月季度以来，租赁业务的复合年增长率为34%。而抵押贷款板块增长了52%。现在，住宅业务，在此期间仍是他们最大的业务，只增长了8.1%。所以，这就是影响业务的瓶颈。
但如果某个时候房地产市场回到五六年前的状态，我们说的就是一项将在所有这三个板块都获得大幅提振的业务。
So, these two segments, rentals, since the March 2024 quarter, have had a compound annual growth rate of 34 % in the rental business. And the mortgage segment has grown by 52%.
Now , the residential business, which is still their largest business during that period, has grown by only 8.1% . So, that's the bottleneck that's impacting the business. But if at some point the housing market gets back to where it was five or six years ago, we're talking about a business that's going to get a big boost in all three of those segments .
他们现在有正的自由现金流。而且他们已经开始回购股票。我认为在这些股票大幅回调之后，估值非常有吸引力。远期市盈率只有13倍。所以，你有一家增长18%的公司，在市场艰难的时候，它仍以13倍盈利交易。
如果未来出现任何正面消息，我认为这就是那种会兑现我们一直在谈论的东西的公司。收入增长、利润率扩张和倍数增长，都是可能带来正面提振的因素。
They now have positive free cash flow. And they've started buying back shares. I think the valuation is very attractive after the big pullback the stocks have had . The forward price- to-earnings ratio is only 13.
So, you have a company growing at 18% in It's a tough time for the market, yet it's still trading at 13 times earnings. If any positive news emerges in the future, this is the kind of company I think will deliver what we've been talking about.
Revenue growth, margin expansion , and multiple growth are all factors that could provide a positive boost.
当你提到该公司在过去十二个月里增长了多少时，我相当惊讶；考虑到我们当前所处的环境，以及在未来可预见的时间内可能持续的环境，我原本只预期会有个位数增长。现在，如果他们能在面临一些挑战的情况下实现这样的增长，你说得对，而如果那些挑战转化为积极因素，我们或许会看到Zillow的业务加速。
这真的很有意思。也许我应该研究一下Zillow的情况。自2021年左右以来我就没有关注过Zillow，当时增长可能……是的。是的，当时它更专注于直接购房。
I was quite surprised when you mentioned how much the company has grown over the past twelve months ; I was only expecting single-digit growth given the environment we're currently in and likely to continue in for the foreseeable future.
Now, if they're able to achieve this growth despite some challenges, you're right, and perhaps if those challenges turn into positives, we could see Zillow's business accelerate.
It's really interesting. Maybe I should look into Zillow's situation. I haven't followed Zillow since 2021 or so, when growth was probably...yes. Yes, it was more focused on direct buying.
另一件需要考虑的事情，而且随着这些AI工具不断改进，它和Zillow属于同一类，就是那些拥有某种不会消失、也不会被Cloud或ChatGPT简单取代的数据和用户界面的公司。我认为这正是它们处于一个有趣位置的原因，因为它们拥有所有这些信息、所有照片、所有空间数据，而这一切最终都汇集到Zillow上，不仅是房屋，租赁也是如此。所以它们可以利用自己的AI工具来帮助经纪人。
Another thing to consider, and it falls into the same category as Zillow as these AI tools improve, is companies that have a kind of data and user interface that won't disappear and won't simply be replaced by Cloud or ChatGPT.
I think that's where they're in an interesting position because they have all that information, all the photos, all the space data, and it all ends up on Zillow, not just for houses but for rentals too. So they can use their AI tools to help agents.
所以，如果你曾在Zillow上与经纪人打过交道，你会发现他们可以向你发送自动回复。我们看房时我实际上就碰到过一次，我想他第二天就准备好了一条自动回复。嘿，我只是来跟进一下，我心里想：“哦，我看出你在用Zillow，”因为我能从你写内容的方式看出来，但它实际上相当不错，而且这让他们利用Zillow数据的工作更有效率。
所以，这是一种与他们的连接，我认为如果你在寻找可能被低估、业务比市场意识到的更稳定、并且可能以AI为驱动力而非颠覆性威胁的公司，这是一个非常好的位置。
So , if you've ever dealt with an agent on Zillow, you'll find that there are automated responses they can send you. I actually caught one when we were looking at a house, and he had an automated response ready the next day, I think.
Hey, I was just checking in and thought to myself, "Oh, I see you're using Zillow, " because I could tell from the way you wrote the content, but it was actually quite good, and it makes their work more efficient using Zillow data .
So, it's a kind of connection with them, and I think that's a very good position if you're looking for companies that might be undervalued , with a more stable business than the market realizes, and potentially with AI as a driving force rather than a disruptive threat.
心里想：“哦，我看出你在用Zillow，”因为我能从你写内容的方式看出来，但它实际上相当不错，而且这让他们利用Zillow数据的工作更有效率。所以，这是一种与他们的连接，我认为如果你在寻找可能被低估、业务比市场意识到的更稳定、并且可能以AI为驱动力而非颠覆性威胁的公司，这是一个非常好的位置。
and thought to myself, "Oh, I see you're using Zillow," because I could tell from the way you wrote the content, but it was actually quite good, and it makes their work more efficient using Zillow data .
So, it's a kind of connection with them, and I think that's a very good position if you're looking for companies that might be undervalued , with a more stable business than the market realizes, and potentially with AI as a driving force rather than a disruptive threat.
因为今天我真的看不到一个我们会通过ChatGPT来搜索住房的世界。我可能错了。我可能错了，但至少在未来两年内，这似乎不是我们前进的方向。我的意思是，即使我们那样做，你大概也会有一个指向Zello的链接，因为，是的，否则他们怎么获得Zello上所有可用的必要数据呢？这又是他们的优势所在。
Because I simply don't see a world today where we'll be searching for our homes via ChatGPT. I might be wrong. I might be wrong, but it does n't seem like that's the direction we're headed in, at least for the next two years.
I mean, even if we were , you'd probably have a link to Zello because, yes, otherwise how would they get all the necessary data that's available on Zello, which is again their strength?
所以，是的，好吧，如果有链接，那没问题。但有意思的是，我想，两年前还很大的许多所谓竞争对手如今已经不复存在了。我记得，Opendoor大概是当时被提到的名字之一。Redfin是另一个名字。
我不知道它们是否还存在。与Redfin的合作。我认为Opendoor陷入了大麻烦，但另一家做出重大改变的公司是Costar旗下的homes.com。它们某种程度上试图打造一个类似Zillow的商业模式，因为它们拥有apartments.com和homes.com。
所以我认为它们只是说：“嘿，我们为什么不加入进来，比Zillow做得更好呢？”而那是一次相当大的失败。它们没有获得所需的用户增长。它们在亏掉大量资金。一位激进投资者出现并对它们说：“嘿，你们在干什么，浪费这么多钱去试图与Zello竞争？”
所以，它们实际上已经收缩了，而我认为这巩固了Zillow作为核心聚合平台的地位。现在，如果你能在房屋和租赁上做到这一点，那听起来是个很好的位置。我的意思是，它们拥有homes.com和apartments.com。
这两个域名大概值不少钱。你可能这么认为，但它们从未真正从中建立起稳固的业务。
So, yes, well, if there's a link, that's fine. But it's interesting, I suppose, that many of the so-called competitors who were big two years ago are no longer around. I remember, Opendoor was probably one of the names that came up.
Redfin was another name. I don't know if they still exist. A partnership with Redfin. I think Opendoor is in big trouble, but the other company that has made significant changes is homes.com, owned by Costar.
They've kind of tried to create a Zillow-like business model because they own apartments.com and homes.com. So I think they just said, "Hey, why don't we jump in and do a better job than Zillow?"
"And that was a pretty big failure . They didn't get the user growth they needed. They were losing tons of money. An activist investor came along and said to them, 'Hey, what are you doing wasting all this money trying to compete with Zello?'"
"So, they've actually pulled back, and I think that's solidified Zillow's position as a core aggregator. Now, if you can do that with homes and rents, that sounds like a great position.
I mean, they own homes.com and apartments.com. Those two domains are probably worth a fair amount of money. You might think so, but they've never really built a solid business out of it.
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