Drawbridge Finance 对 $AAPL 的判断变化
这个频道在这只股票上的每一条判断，按时间倒序，每一步都读完那条视频里关于这只股票的全部内容。相邻两条方向不同的地方标出方向翻转。
现在，让我们看看其他几只股票。我们来看看苹果。它一直在区间内交易。
Now, let's look at a couple other stocks. We'll look at Apple. It's been trading in a range.
让我们看看苹果。为什么？你知道，这就像随机的一样。那只是我脑子里想的。苹果。我有一段时间没在这里交易了。我们在309。
Let's look at some Apple. Why? You know, it's just like random. That's just like what's on my mind. Apple. Uh haven't traded here in a while. We're at 309.
你知道，我们已经过了财报期，财报发生在7月30日。我们看到跳空下跌。我们之前看过这个。它交易在布林带中轨附近。我们处于一个盘整区域。
Uh, you know, we're past earnings, which occurred here July 30th. We saw a gap down. We looked at this earlier. It's trading near the middle of its bowlinger bands. We're kind of in a consolidation zone.
布林带中轨。我们处于一个盘整区域。这就是我可能会寻找横向交易的地方。现在，苹果的隐含波动率不会特别高。目前的IV排名是56，这使其处于通常位置的41百分位。所以，这就是我认为的低IV。
我将在苹果上寻找低IV交易。这就是我可能会寻找横向交易的地方。
middle of its bowlinger bands. We're kind of in a consolidation zone. This is where I might look for uh just a sideways trade. Now, the IV is not going to be super high on on uh Apple. The IV rank right now is 56, which puts it in the 41st percentile of uh of where it typically would be. So, this is what I would consider a low IV. And I'm going to look for low IV trades on Apple. This is where I might look for uh just a sideways trade.
现在，苹果的隐含波动率不会特别高。目前的IV排名是56，这使其处于通常位置的41百分位。所以，这就是我认为的低IV。
Now, the IV is not going to be super high on on uh Apple. The IV rank right now is 56, which puts it in the 41st percentile of uh of where it typically would be. So, this is what I would consider a low IV.
我将在苹果上寻找低IV交易。那么，我们如何构建呢？让我们看看我可以构建的某种可能被视为收入流的东西。所以，如果我看向52天后，实际上那太长了。让我们用30天周期。让我们看9月25日，然后卖出一个平值或略低于平值的看跌期权。那么我会为那个订单收取445。
And I'm going to look for low IV trades on Apple. So, how do we build that? Let's look at at something that I could build that might be like considered an income stream so to speak. So if I looked out 52 days and actually that's too long. Let's do on 30-day cycle here. Let's look at September 25th and just sell an at the money or just slightly below the money put. So I would collect 445 for that order.
现在，如果我把时间框架加倍，如果我看向60天后，那么让我们去10月16日，大约52天后。买入那个300看跌期权的成本是多少？嗯，这花费我200美元。
Now if I went double the time frame, if I went out to 60 days, so let's go to October 16th about 52 days later. What is the cost of buying that 300 put? Well, this cost me $200.
现在，我们从之前知道这个日历价差，所以我的总风险将是200美元，无论哪一边，或者支付的借项是多少。所以，我的最大亏损是274，但我的最大利润可以达到461美元。
Now, we know from before this calendar spread, so I'm going to have $200 in total risk to the to either side or whatever it is the debit paid. So, I've got a max loss of 274, but I have a max profit of making up to $461.
现在，我不需要持有股票来做这个。我可以直接买入这个头寸。它的盈利概率是40，我们在第一个到期日（9月5日，31天后）有大约314.288的盈亏平衡点。
Now, I don't have to own the stock to do this. I can just buy this position. It's got a probability profit of 40, and we've got break evens around that 314 2.88 at this first expiration, which is September 5th, 31 days away.
好的，所以我们可以去看图表，然后看看，你知道，314在这个图表上的哪里？它相对在这里。然后另一边的盈亏平衡点是288。所以我们可以下来这里，看看这个，然后说，哇，这是一个相当不错的小区间。
Okay, so we could go to the chart and we could take a look at that and say, you know, where is 314 on this on this uh chart? It's relatively here. And then uh where was the option chain on the side or the the break even on the other side is 288. So we could go down here and we could look at this and say, wow, that's a pretty nice little range.
基本上，只要股票保持在，让我拿我的绘图工具。我已经两周没用了。只要股票保持在这个区间内，这可能会让我的钱翻倍。
Basically, as long as the stock stays, let me get my right drawing tool here. Not had this for two weeks. As long as the the stock stays in this range, this this could make up to double my my money.
嗯，在接下来的短时间内，我们很有可能看到这种情况发生。苹果今年并没有表现出很大的强势。我们看到大幅上涨，然后财报将其推低。
Uh there's a good good chance that we could see this happen over the next little while. Apple has not had a huge amount of strength coming uh into this year. We saw we saw a large rise up and then earnings pushing that down.
所以，我很容易假设在接下来的短时间内可能会发生这种情况。
So would be very very easy for me to assume that that's what might happen over the course of the next little while.
这些是我喜欢做的交易类型。现在，我如何可能获得更多上行空间？如果我认为，哦，苹果将有一个伟大的年份。嗯，我想在苹果有一些长期头寸，那么这就是我去买LEAP的地方。
These are the type of trades that I love to put on. Now, how do I potentially get some more upside? If I think, oh, Apple's going to have a great year. Um, I want to have uh some long-term um positions in Apple, well, that's where I go to leaps.
我可以去，你知道，超过388天，到明年九月，我可以直接购买一个LEAP，我可以在那之上做。
I can go out, you know, past the 388 days, this September of next year, and I can just purchase a LEAP, and I can do that above
我有一个不错的盈利帐篷。基本上，只要苹果保持在29以下或297以上，就有赚钱的潜力。我这张长期看涨期权有无限的上涨潜力。所以，最大利润是无限的。它有70%的赚钱概率，因为如果股票稍微下跌，那么我就有这个不错的盈利帐篷。
我仍然有最大亏损。这是一笔3200美元的交易。这就是人们如何陷入麻烦的原因。他们可能过度杠杆化他们的账户。他们可能会说，哇，我买了这个，我买了那个，我买了那个。然后整个市场下跌，他们就在这上面亏掉一大笔钱。
但我不需要买入股票就能获得上涨的敞口。在这种情况下，这可能是一个非常非常简单的方法。我们可以这样设置，我有一个日历价差，它保护我的长期看跌期权，并且它基本上创造了一个零theta的交易。
它给我带来了无限的最大利润。未来几周盈利概率为70%。现在，如果IV上升，如果股票下跌且IV略微上升，这实际上会进一步降低我的盈亏平衡点。所以，如果出现一些抛售和IV上升，我们在这种市场环境中应该非常警惕，那么到期时的盈亏可能会相当不错。
And I have this nice profit tent. Basically, as long as Apple stays below 29 or above 297, there's potential of this making money. I have this one long call has unlimited upside potential in here. So, the max profit is unlimited. It's got a 70% probability of making money because if the stock drops down a little bit, then I I've got this nice profit tent. I still have a max loss. This is a $3,200 trade. And this is why how people can get in trouble. They can overlever their account. They can say, "Wow, I, you know, I bought this and I bought this and I bought this." And then the whole market goes down and they just lose uh a ton of money on this. But I don't need to buy the shares to get some exposure to the upside. In this case, this can be a very very easy way to do this. We can we can set this up where I have a calendar which is protecting my long uh put and it's creating basically a a zero theta trade. It's giving me that max profit that's unlimited. Probability of profit 70% over the next couple of of weeks. Now the IV, if the IV was to increase, if the stock was to drop and the IV increase slightly, this would actually drive my break even down further. So, uh, if there was a bit of a sell off and an increased IV, which we're we should be very aware of in this market environment, then the expiration P&L could be quite good.
我们看了一个关于苹果的潜在看涨交易想法，风险较低。
Uh we looked at a potentially bullish trade idea on Apple that is lowrisk.