The Intrinsic Value Podcast 对 $ABNB 的判断变化
我们是不是应该做 Airbnb，因为我认为那会很快，因为它只是我们最大的投资组合持仓之一。我们应该说，他们刚刚发布了财报，不久之前，市场喜欢这些财报。
Should we do maybe Airbnb because I think that should be quick simply because it's one of our largest largest portfolio holdings. Um, we should just say I mean they just released earnings um not too long ago. Um, the market liked them.
我认为主要原因基本上是夜数和服务的增长重新加速，或者预订的夜数和服务，因为如果你同比比较，你会看到 3 月 26 日增长 9%，而 2025 年 3 月是 7.9%，然后 6 月显著从 7.4% 到 10.3%。
我认为这主要是市场如此喜欢这些结果的原因，因为你需要重新加速。
I think the main reason has basically been this um you know the reacelerated growth in nights and services or nights booked and services because if you compare that year-over-year um you would see March 26 9% growth um compared to you know March 2025 7.9 and then in June significantly 7.4 to 10.3%. I think this has been primarily because um of why the market liked the the results so much um because you needed reaceleration.
我认为营收增长一直有些问题。我会把 Adobe 放在 A 档。
Let's I mean I think the the topline growth has somewhat been a problem. Uh I would put Adobe comfortably in the A tier.
简而言之，人们喜欢旅行。与酒店相比，替代性住宿有很多价值。我最近和妻子的家人一起旅行参加婚礼。我们选择入住，有些人住在酒店，而我们选择预订Airbnb，这样我们可以带上家里的狗，并且一家人可以共享一个居住空间。对我来说，这很好地说明了Airbnb的价值。
In short, uh people love to travel. Uh there's a lot of value in alternative travel to hotels. Um I just traveled with my uh my wife's family for a wedding. Uh we opted to stay uh some folks stayed at the hotel. We opted to get an Airbnb so that we could bring the family dog along and we could kind of have, you know, the family in one shared living space. To me, that is like a great illustration of the value of Adobe uh or sorry, of Airbnb.
我脑子里想着Adobe。而且，AI不会改变这一点。他们拥有极其强大的房东网络，他们的需求聚合器，他们的飞轮效应持续累积，这里就不说那些行话了。
Um got Adobe on the brain. Uh and and you know, AI doesn't change any of that. Um they have this incredibly robust network of of hosts. um their demand aggregator uh their flywheel is is continuing to compound uh just to spit out all the jargon there.
但我非常有信心，人们未来在替代性住宿上的花费只会更多。它正变得越来越主流，以至于它不再是替代性住宿，而是当人们旅行时，他们会想，让我看看Airbnb。这可能是他们在看酒店之前的第一个念头。
Uh but I feel very very confident um people are only going to be spending more on alternative travel uh going forward. It's becoming increasingly mainstream so that it's not alternative travel but it's just when people go to travel they think oh let me look for an Airbnb. Um and that might be their first thought before they even look for a hotel.
尤其是当你不是商务旅行时。如果是商务旅行，你可能会选择酒店。如果是和家人一起休闲旅行，你想要独特的体验。Airbnb拥有的房东网络真的很难被击败，以及他们能提供的独特体验的机会。
Um especially if you're, you know, traveling um not not for business. You know, if you're traveling for business, you're probably going to go for a hotel. U if you're traveling for pleasure with family, you want unique experiences. Um the the network of hosts that Airbnb has um is really hard to beat. And the opportunity like kind of unique experiences that they can provide.
而且，我看不出有任何理由，我看不出有任何竞争威胁能够证明或解释为什么房东会突然将他们的住房供应，也就是他们在Airbnb上的库存，长期转移到其他平台。我不认为AI会从根本上改变这一点。
Um, and I don't see any reason why uh um I don't see any competitive threat that would uh justify, you know, or explain why hosts would suddenly, you know, move their supply of housing, you know, their their uh inventory for Airbnb, why they would move that onto other platforms long term. I don't think AI fundamentally changes that.
所以，我会说它不是一家无懈可击的公司。我不会把它放在S级，但我绝对很高兴把它放在A级。就估值而言，我可能对他们的增长前景非常乐观。但你必须承认，今天的估值很高，尤其是我一年前开始以每股120美元买入Airbnb，现在它几乎涨到了190美元。
而且，我相信它的交易价格大约是营业利润的36倍。
So, um I would say it's not a bulletproof company. I wouldn't put it S tier, but I'm definitely very happy to have it in A tier. In terms of valuation, um I would probably be uh I I'm very optimistic about their growth prospects. Um but you have to admit like you're getting uh a rich valuation today, especially I first started buying Airbnb at 120 a share a year ago. Now it's almost um up to 190. Uh, and I believe it's trading at like 36 times um, operating profit.
比我想象的要贵。是的。而且其中很大一部分是股票补偿。所以，坦白说，对于Airbnb，我认为我们处于让赢家奔跑的位置。我们不想削减仓位，但在当前估值下我们绝对不会加仓。
>> more expensive than I thought. >> It is. Yeah. And there's a huge component of of stockbased comp. So, you to be completely candid, um, with Airbnb, I think we're in a position of of letting our winners run. We don't want to trim the position, but we're definitely not adding to it at current valuations.
所以，天哪，相对于其他公司，很难说。说今天的价值比Wix还差，感觉真的很奇怪，但事实就是如此。
And so, um, gosh, relative to these other companies, like [laughter] >> it's hard. It feels really weird to say that the value today is like worse than Wix, but it is.
是的。我的意思是，我会把它评为C或D。这只股票目前客观上很贵。但就像我说的，长期来看，10年，我对他们继续增长的能力非常非常乐观，基本上是他们拥有的房东网络效应，以及这将如何继续吸引更多客户，进而吸引更多房东，飞轮不断旋转。
>> Like if Yeah. I mean, I would put it at a C or a D. Like the stock the stock is objectively expensive at the moment. Um, but like I said, you know, 10 years long term, um, I'm incredibly incredibly optimistic about their ability to continue to to grow basically the network effect of hosts that they have. Uh, and then how that will continue to attract more customers, which attracts more hosts, which attract, you know, the flywheel spins and spins and spins.
所以，总之，10年看起来不错，但今天的估值，我甚至可能把它放在D级。是的，可能确实如此，我没想到它现在这么贵。但我认为它也从Lowe's上涨了大约40%。所以，我认为这说得通。大概在C到D之间。
And so, anyways, um, 10 years looks good valuation today. Um, I could even put it in the D tier. >> Yeah, it might be if it's actually I didn't realize it's that expensive by now. Um, but I think it did go up also like 40% from Lowe's. So, um, I think that makes sense. Somewhere like C2D.
对于所有刚加入的人，如果你在想，他们真的认为Wix比Airbnb质量更高吗？不，不是的。是今天的价值。这个想法基本上是说，好吧，根据今天的价格，假设未来一到三年，哪一个现在可能更便宜？
如果你只考虑质量，你应该看得更长远，这里是10年的时间跨度。如果你看到Wix和Airbnb，我认为这是相当公平的。
And for all the people who just joined, if you're thinking, well, are they actually thinking that Wix is higher quality than Airbnb? No, it's not. value today. The idea is basically saying okay well based on today's prices for the next let's say one to three years which of those is probably cheaper right now if you just think about quality um you should look out you know longer term and that's 10 year time horizon here if you see Wix EF Airbnb um so I think that's um that's quite fair
聊天中说Airbnb更接近D级，我认为这也公平。还有一件事，我刚才在评论中指出过，对我来说，我来自欧洲，所以可能对这家公司有更多的这种情绪，但我认为公众舆论，尤其是长期来看，今天的价值根本不重要。
但10年后，Airbnb越成功，主要城市中的Airbnb越多，它就越会成为政治和公共问题。
chat is saying Airbnb closer to DTIP I think that's also fair and just one thing and I pointed it out in in a comment here basically a minute ago I think also for me and I'm from Europe So maybe there's a bit more of that um you know that that sentiment towards the company but I think public opinion especially in the long run I think value today doesn't matter at all. Um but 10 years time the more successful Airbnb will become and the more Airbnbs are in those major cities um the more of a you know political and public problem it will become.
已经有人，我认为巴塞罗那在这方面是领先的，每当人们示威反对Airbnb时。我认为你会越来越频繁地看到这种情况。
Um there already people I think Barcelona is like on top of that whenever it comes to people demonstrating against um against Airbnb. I think you will see that more and more often.
然后真正的问题在于，这些事最终会带来多少政治变革。我可以预期在美国不会那么极端。我也认为在欧洲会更极端。我不知道他们会走多远。我的意思是，当我们第一次谈论Uber时，情况类似，对吧？
比如在德国，Uber长期不被允许，在欧洲许多其他国家也是如此。随着时间的推移，这种情况有所缓解，现在他们基本上需要一张正规的出租车牌照，但基本上Uber开始逐渐占据主导地位。我认为Airbnb在起步时没有同样的问题，但他们越成功，就会遇到越多这样的问题，而且已经显现出来了。
所以我认为这是一个长期担忧，但如果你与尤其是受AI影响的公司相比，我认为这是相当低的，这么说很安全。
And then it's really about how much political ch or change will actually um come about from those things. I could expect that it's not that you know extreme in the US. I would also assume that's more extreme in Europe. Um I don't think how I don't know how far they will take it. I mean basically when we first talked about Uber it was similar right? Um where I was like you know in Germany for example Uber was you know not allowed for a long time in many other countries in Europe too. over time um that sort of freed up and now basically they need a solid taxi license but um it's basically you know Uber started to dominate over time and I think Airbnb didn't have the same problems starting but they will have more of those problems the more successful they become um and it is already showing so I think that's somewhat of a long-term concern but I think pretty low if you compare that to especially companies that are hit for by AI for example I think that's uh that's safe to say
Uber的情况是，当产品足够好时，即使存在负面外部性，对它的需求也会压倒这些。所以对于Airbnb，负面外部性是，社区，它改变了社区的构成，现在你没有永久邻居，而是每个周末都有不同的人来来往往。
这被视为一种负面外部性，但如果有那么多人想要旅行并拥有独特体验，这种需求就会压倒它。
>> sort of the thing with Uber is like when the product is so good >> even if there are negative externalities that that come from it the the demand for it overwhelms it so like Airbnb the negative externalities is you know neighborhoods uh it changes the the composition of neighborhoods of now you don't have a permanent neighbor but you have uh you know this every weekend there's different people coming through and so um that is sort of seen as a negative externality but if there's so many people that want to travel and have unique experiences is that kind of overwhelms
比如 Airbnb，负面外部性就是社区，它改变了社区的构成，现在你没有永久邻居，而是每个周末都有不同的人来来往往，所以这被视为一种负面外部性。但如果有很多人想要旅行并拥有独特体验，这种需求是否会压倒阻力呢？
so like Airbnb the negative externalities is you know neighborhoods uh it changes the the composition of neighborhoods of now you don't have a permanent neighbor but you have uh you know this every weekend there's different people coming through and so um that is sort of seen as a negative externality but if there's so many people that want to travel and have unique experiences is that kind of overwhelms the the resistance
重点是，我认为你会遇到这些外部性，也会遇到这些监管障碍，但我认为对产品的需求，对使用 Airbnb 或 Uber 的需求最终会压倒这些障碍。
with the point being I think you get these like these there are externalities and I think you get these regulatory blocks um but I think the demand for the product the demand for being able to use Airbnb or Uber eventually uh eventually overwhelms
所以可能你必须总结一下，今天的价值可能只能，我的意思是，我们有 Wix 和 C 级，可能和 Airbnb 类似，我会这么说。
Um, so probably you have to summarize it value today probably can only be I mean we have Wix and and C tier probably similar to Airbnb I would say.
就像我说的，我可以构建一个非常强劲的看涨论点，说明为什么 Shopify 在十年后会成为一个更好的业务，一个更大的业务。但我确实认为存在合理的不确定性。然后在估值方面，就像你说的，这是一只昂贵的股票。
它一直是一只昂贵的股票。是的，我无法把它排在 Airbnb 之上。
>> like I said, I I I can put together a really strong bull thesis on why Shopify will be uh, a much better business, a much bigger business 10 years from now. But I do think that there are, you know, legitimate uncertainties. And then in terms of valuation, um, like you said, it's it's an expensive stock. It has been an expensive stock. Uh, yeah, it would be I I couldn't put put it above Airbnb.
我可能会，是的，我可能会把它排在 Airbnb 之下。
>> I I would probably Yeah, I would probably put it even below Airbnb.