Dividendology 对 $ACN 的判断变化
我的意思是，看看这份名单。我们有标普全球、埃森哲、Intuit、SAP、Equifax、高知特和Salesforce。这些都是过去一年受到重创的公司，其中一些在某些时候下跌了50%。
这些是软件公司、IT服务和金融数据公司。这些就是我所谓的AI受害者股票。
I mean, just take a look at this list. We have S&P Global, Accenture, Intuit, SAP, Equifax, Cognizant, and Salesforce. These are all companies that have been hammered over the last year, with some being down 50% at some points. These are software companies, IT services, and financial data companies. These are what I deem as AI victim stocks.
也许最有趣的案例研究之一是埃森哲。现在，埃森哲本质上是一家咨询和技术实施公司。换句话说，这正是市场认为容易被颠覆的领域，在某种程度上这可能是真的。未来几年这只股票的收入指引相对较低。
他们基本上指引个位数的收入增长。但请记住这一点，因为是的，个位数的收入增长率肯定比历史上看到的要慢。如果我们叠加收入增长率，我们可以看到它们通常在大约4%到7%，甚至可能是5%的过去十二个月收入增长。
但我在几个月前股价很低时谈过这只股票。它引起我注意的原因是当我通过反向贴现现金流分析来看它时。因为本质上这告诉我们一只股票定价了多少增长。所以当我将0%的自由现金流增长率应用于这只股票未来十年的自由现金流时，该公司的价值为每股244美元。
Perhaps one of the most interesting case studies has been Accenture. Now, Accenture is essentially a consulting and technology implementation company. In other words, this is exactly what the market believes is ripe for disruption and to some degree that might be true. Revenue guidance is relatively low for this stock over the next few years. They're essentially guiding towards single-digit revenue growth. But keep that in mind for just a moment because yes, single-digit revenue growth rate is certainly slower than what we've seen historically speaking. If we overlay revenue growth rates, we can see often times they're sitting at around 4 to 7%, maybe even 5% for the trailing 12-month revenue growth. But I talked about this stock just a few months ago when trading at very low prices. And the reason it caught my attention is when I was looking at it through the lens of a reverse discounted cash flow analysis. Because essentially what this is doing is telling us how much growth is priced into a stock. And so when I apply 0% free cash flow growth rate to the free cash flow for this stock over the next decade, the company's worth $244 a share.
所以这意味着该股基本上定价了负的自由现金流增长。事实上，未来十年定价了负4%的自由现金流增长。所以市场对该股仍然非常悲观。
So that means the stock essentially has negative free cash flow growth priced in. In fact, it has negative 4% free cash flow growth priced in over the next decade. So the market is still incredibly pessimistic on the stock.
当它交易在最低价格时，我以大约每股128美元的价格运行了这个模型，市场定价了每年负10%的自由现金流增长。这就是那种真正开始变得有价值的情况，因为你可以看到市场对某些股票变得多么悲观。
因此，虽然某种程度的颠覆可能是事实，但你可以看到抛售被大大夸大了。
And when it was trading at its lowest prices, I ran this model at around $128 a share, the market was pricing in negative 10% free cash flow growth annually. And that's the type of scenario where this really starts to become valuable because you can see just how pessimistic the market has become on certain stocks. And so while some level of disruption might be the case, you can see the sell-off was way overstated.