Joseph Carlson 对 $ADBE 的判断变化
Adobe 从每股 660 美元大幅下跌。现在已跌至 255 美元。因此，该股仍较历史高点下跌约 60% 至 70%。
Adobe is down massively from $660 per share. Now it's down to 255. So the stock is still down around 60 to 70% from its all-time highs.
让我们逐一分析，先从 Adobe 开始。我相信 Adobe 具有很高的扭转潜力，原因是这是基本面与故事不匹配的最明显案例之一。存在巨大的脱节。通常，当你听到一家公司的故事时，基本面应该在某种程度上跟随它。
它们应该随着故事上涨或下跌。但在这种情况下，基本面在说一件事，故事在说完全不同的另一件事。
So let's look at each of these and start off with Adobe. I believe Adobe has a high potential for a turnaround and the reason why is because this is one of the clearest cases of the fundamentals not matching the story. There is a massive massive disconnect. Typically, when you hear a story of a company, the fundamentals should follow it to some degree. They they should go up with the story or they should go down with the story. But in this case, the fundamentals are saying one thing, the story is saying an entirely different thing.
我们可以看看，例如，关于颠覆的风险。这就是 Adobe 实际收入的样子。你能在收入中看到颠覆吗？让我们放大过去 10 年。你能在收入中看到颠覆吗？我肯定看不到。它只是同比增长了 13%。
这是我们见过的公司中最渐进、最持续增长的季度收入之一。事实上，它比大多数公司都要好。你很难找到另一家像 Adobe 这样持续增长的公司。
We can look, for example, about the risk of disruption. This is what Adobe's actual revenue looks like. Can you see the disruption in the revenue? Well, let's zoom into the past 10 years. Can you see the disruption in the revenue? I sure can't. It just grew 13% year over year. It's one of the most gradually growing, consistent growing quarterly revenues that we've ever seen in a company. In fact, it's better than most companies out there. You would have a hard time finding another company that grows as consistently as Adobe.
但即便如此，Adobe 仍然存在重大担忧，以及股价下跌如此之多且如此便宜的原因。那是因为出现了新的范式转变。有新的视频编辑方式，新的图像编辑方式，这正在影响 Adobe 的决策。
例如，他们正在进行战略转向，试图成为这一新浪潮的核心平台。他们用未来较低的收入增长换取所有免费平台上更快的用户获取。因此，Adobe 仍在努力发展其生态系统，让更多人进入 Adobe 套件。
他们知道自己拥有高端市场。如果他们能让更多低端用户，更简单的 AI 用例进入 Adobe 套件，他们以后可以将其变现。
But even so, there are still big concerns for Adobe and reasons the stock is down so much and so cheap. And that is because there's a new paradigm shift. There are new ways to edit videos, new ways to edit images, and this is impacting Adobe's decisions. For example, they are making strategic pivots to try to gain and be the central platform for this new wave. They're trading off lower revenue growth in the future for faster user acquisition on all of their free platforms. So, Adobe's still trying to grow their ecosystem and get more people into the Adobe suite. They know that they own the high end. If they can get more of the low end users, the more simple use cases for AI into the Adobe suite, they can monetize them later on.
领导层将此视为一个“现在或错过”的时刻，成为跨网络、移动和对话界面的创意和生产力的默认 AI 平台。在这一转型发生的同时，市场已经大幅折价了 Adobe。再次强调，这家公司的交易价格低于 10 倍远期市盈率。
自由现金流收益率为 10.4%。Adobe 的估值已经预期了资本破坏。它已经预期了更慢的增长、不具吸引力的回报。所以，如果你是敢于冒险的类型，想要进行扭转操作，今天的 Adobe 代表了最好的机会之一。
Leadership frames this as a now or miss it moment to become the default AI platform for creativity and productivity across web, mobile, and conversational surfaces. While this transition is happening, the market has discounted Adobe to a massive extent already. Again, this company is trading at below a 10 forward PE ratio. The free cash flow yield is 10.4%. Adobe trades at a valuation that already anticipates destruction to capital. It already anticipates much slower growth, unattractive returns. So, if you're the daring type and you want to go in for a turnaround play, Adobe today represents one of the best opportunities.
我将讨论一些对此的预期，以及同样将在本周晚些时候公布财报的Adobe。
I'll be going over some expectations for this as well as Adobe that will also be reporting earnings later this week.
本周另一家公布财报的公司是Adobe。Adobe无疑会发布出色的数据，但他们需要以某种方式表明AI并未颠覆其业务。他们需要为此建立更强的防御。目前，Adobe被视为一家拥有暂时定价权且被AI颠覆可能性很高的公司。
其交易于10倍远期市盈率，10%的自由现金流收益率。从数字上看，它是市场上最便宜的高质量公司之一，仅仅因为AI颠覆的主题。因此，Adobe管理层需要通过展示产品和席位的有机数量增长，努力说服投资者AI并未颠覆其业务。
这是一个难以讲述的故事，市场已经直接转向了对他们不利的方向。
Another company reporting earnings this week is Adobe. Adobe will undoubtedly post great numbers, but they need to show some way that AI is not disrupting the business. They need to create a stronger defense for that. Right now, Adobee's looked at as a company that has temporary pricing power and a high probability of being disrupted by AI. It trades at a 10 forward PE ratio, a 10% free cash flow yield. It is by the numbers one of the cheapest high-quality companies in the market simply because of the theme of AI disruption. So Adobe management needs to work on convincing investors that AI is not disrupting the business by showing organic volume growth of products and seats. It's a hard story to tell and the market has pivoted directly against them.