Financial Education 对 $AMZN 的判断变化
像亚马逊、谷歌、McDougall、Meta 这样的大型科技公司正在大量借贷，以建设数据中心并为人工智能基础设施提供资金。
Massive tech companies like Amazon, Google, McDougall, Meta are borrowing heavily to build data centers and finance artificial intelligence infrastructure.
那我的可爱的、令人惊叹的亚马逊股票呢？看看积累起来的自由现金流。亚马逊的自由现金流曾经在爆发式增长，而现在却变成了负数，而且在好转之前还会变得更糟。这是你必须理解的事情。如果情况是那样，比如，好吧，就这样了，我们从这里开始回升，那还好。
但事实并非如此，而且短期内不会。至少一两年内情况会变得更糟，但现金流是否会连续三四年变得越来越糟，这还有争议。现在，你可以看到这里发生了什么。这是每股自由现金流。天哪，看看在这个伟大的、令人惊叹的区域发生了什么。
What about my lovely amazing on Amazon stock, right? Look at free cash flow that was piling up. Their free cash flow was exploding at Amazon, right? And now it's gone into the negatives and it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. That's the thing you got to understand. it, you know, it' be one thing if it's like, okay, that's it. You know, we're heading back up from here. It's not, and it's not anytime soon. Like, it's going to get a lot worse for at least a year or two, but it's also debatable if it's going to be three or four years of the cash flow getting worse and worse and worse. Now, you get to see what's going on here. Right? This is free cash flow per share. Oh my gosh, look what has happened at the great old amazing zone.
英伟达、苹果、微软、亚马逊、谷歌、McDougall、SpaceX、博通、Meta、特斯拉、Masla、美光，还有沃尔玛，对吧？就是那11家公司。
Nvidia, Apple, Mr. softy Microsoft, Amazing Zon, Google, McDougall, SpaceX, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Masla, Micron, and Walmart, right? Those 11 companies right there.
亚马逊的资本支出问题。
Amazing on capex problems.
亚马逊，AMZN。我非常看好这家公司，一方面是其电商业务，另一方面是AWS，目前AWS在增长率方面正在快速加速，此外他们还有广告业务，还有其他一些业务，但这三项是核心，对吧？所以这家公司绝对值得提一下。
Amazon, AMZN. This one I absolutely love between the e-commerce side, the AWS side, which is accelerating rapidly right now in regards to growth rates, and then they got their ads business, and they got a bunch of other businesses, but those three are the cores, right? And so this one's definitely an honorable mention.
唯一让我不喜欢亚马逊的地方是它巨额的开支，而且这种开支不会消失，未来几年这些芯片还会带来大量折旧，因此这将相当大幅度地拖累每股收益，我认为人们还没有对此进行计算，而且他们不是唯一这样做的公司，顺便说一下，所有公司都受到这个影响。
Meta已经开始受到影响，而且会受到更严重的冲击。谷歌、微软，所有这些公司，对吧？
The only thing, the only thing I don't like about Amazon is the massive massive spend, and it's not going away, and they're going to have big depreciation on these chips coming over the next several years, and so that's going to hold back earnings per share quite substantially, and I don't think people have done the math around this yet, and they're not the only ones, by the way. Everybody's getting hit by this. Meta's already starting to get hit by it, it's going to get hit a lot worse. Google, Microsoft, all these companies, right?
但嗯，是的，亚马逊，我的意思是，归根结底，未来3年亚马逊能赚钱吗？能，但天哪，他们现在的资本支出已经失控了。而且而且而且明年可能会更糟。比如他们可能会把资本支出数字再大幅提高，而令人兴奋的是，哇，看看AWS的增长，但我的意思是，这种增长伴随着巨大的成本，我们说的是数千亿美元的成本，所以请记住这一点。
But um yeah, Amazon, I mean, at the end of the day, is Amazon a money maker over the next 3 years? Yes, but man, their CapEx is out of control right now. And and and it's it's going to get worse likely next year. Like they're going to probably take their CapEx numbers even up a lot more, and um the exciting part is wow, look at the AWS growth, but I mean, that that that growth comes at a big cost, and we're talking a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, so do keep that in mind.
亚马逊要花多少钱？
How much is Amazon going to spend?